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Russia’s International Affairs Council (RIAC) said it expects Russia, Turkey and Iran to reach an agreement to remove Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad from power, and will declare a ceasefire in exchange for a transitional government. The government would be made up of the opposition, the regime and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), according to the Middle East Monitor.
RIAC, known for its close ties to decision makers in the Russian government, reports that the Russian organization National Fund for the Protection of National Values, linked to the security services and President Vladimir Putin, conducted a survey in Syria on Assal’s presence in power.
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The RIAC report says that since the beginning of the military intervention in Syria, Russia has avoided being portrayed as a defender of B.al Assad. The RIAC added that “the Syrian people will decide whether they want Assad to remain in power.”
According to the RIAC, Russia takes events in Syria more seriously, especially since B.al Assad’s defense “has become a burden,” writes the Middle East Monitor.
Russia’s TASS agency explained: “Russia suspects Assad is no longer capable of leading the country, but also that the head of the Syrian regime is pushing Moscow onto the Afghan stage.”
TASS added that Iran has no interest in achieving stability throughout the region because it considers it a battleground for the United States.
According to TASS, Moscow is determined to use Assal to conclude an agreement that guarantees Russia’s interests. Admittedly, TASS points out that B.al Assad will speak to the Russians, but will ultimately implement Iran’s demands.
Turkey has always been in favor of removing Assal from power, writes the Middle East Monitor.
Scanpix / AP photo / V.Putin (left) and B.al-Assad in Syria
In a nine-year Syrian civil war, Russia supports B.al Assad, who brutally suppressed a civil uprising. The regime, backed by Moscow and Tehran, has recovered 70 percent. territories of the country.
Family drama
Syrians are watching an unusual drama during this Ramadan. Assam’s cousin Rami Makhlouf, one of the country’s richest cousins, has released a video complaining that security services have targeted his business, the Financial Times reported.
Photo by Scanpix / Bashar al Assad
Maklouf said that the regime’s security forces “began to attack people’s liberties.”
“They asked me to resign,” Mahlouf said in the video, calling for justice for Mr. Assad.
When war broke out in Syria in 2011, Maklouf controlled around 60 percent. The country’s economy continued to monopolize key industries by strengthening the B. al Assad regime. But last year there were unconfirmed reports that Mahlouf had been placed under house arrest and that the Assal regime had taken over the affairs of his cousin, Deutsche Welle wrote.
Such a statement by R.Mahlouf seems to imply a change in the power structure in the ruling clan, which is made up of an Alavite sect. Since 1970, when Assad’s father Hafez came to power, “the ruling Syrian family has never brought dirty laundry to the public,” he told the Lina Khatib newspaper of the Chatham House Research Center.
Under the guise of Damascus politics, analysts cannot name why Maklouf was the target. However, the Syrian state urgently needs money, the local currency has depreciated, and many businessmen complain that customs and other authorities are trying to impose additional taxes on them.
According to Emile Hokayem, a Middle East analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, although Mahlouf was not a big challenge to Assal, he revealed “tensions in the near future as the pie shrinks and competition and accusations intensify.”
“Makhlouf is not a mere consigliere or lieutenant. He is sitting a little under Bashar, “Hokayem told the Financial Times.
Two sources in al-Assad’s immediate environment spoke of years of ongoing tensions between Maklouf and First Lady Asma al-Assad, according to the Financial Times.
Bachar el Halabi, a researcher at the American University in Beirut, told the Qatar-backed portal The New Arab that “what we see now is the last phase of the Syrian regime, and what is happening now will determine the regime’s future.”
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Using foreign force?
A source told the Middle East Eye that it was not just a “fight in Assad’s nearby circle.”
According to the source, Maklouf may use one of Damascus’ allies to increase pressure on the government to reach a post-war political settlement. Or Damascus can use Makhlouf to counter that pressure, writes the Middle East Eye.
The Financial Times writes that while the majority of Syrians rebuke Machlouf for possible corruption and support for the regime, part of the Alavit community supports him. Maklouf is dedicated to charity in a coastal region densely populated by the Alavites.
According to L. Khatib, R. Maklouf may try to appear as a defender of Alavite interests. Some loyal commentators have warned that action against Maklouf could lead to conflict within the Alavite community.
“Don’t bring fire, wars and destruction (to the coastal region),” Sharif Shuhada, a former member of parliament and a recognized loyalist, wrote on Facebook.
According to researcher Joseph Daher of the University of Lausanne, Assal would have a hard time standing up to Mr. Mohlouf entirely, and it is unclear whether he is determined to do so, writes Deutsche Welle.
Although Alavites represent only about 12 percent. The Syrian population, the representatives of this sect, make up the country’s ruling elite.
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