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According to a study published in the medical journal The BMJ, there is no so-called ‘collective immunity’ in Europe (a massive transmission of coronavirus that allows at least partial public immunity). In early May of this year, when European countries began easing quarantine restrictions, less than 4 percent. Europeans have been diagnosed with coronaviruses, on average, less than 1%. In Norway, Germany and Austria less than 8%. In Belgium (5.1% in the United Kingdom).
Investigators are concerned that a second wave of the coronavirus epidemic may be inevitable with the complete abolition of quarantine, and public claims that the coronavirus epidemic is coming to an end are completely unacceptable.
Researchers have little doubt that the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic will affect the UK; there is only disagreement about the scope and nature of the wave.
For example, a second wave of coronavirus is predicted for the West Midlands population, where the number of coronavirus infections is one of the highest in the country. In comparison, the population of coronavirus infections in Sandwell is 325.6 cases per 100,000 population, and the highest infection rate in the country (499.2 cases per 100,000 population) is in Sanderland.
In early June, 27 leading UK doctors and scientists, including one of the former directors of the World Health Organization, prof. Anthony Costello, in a letter, addressed the country’s prime minister, Boris Johnson, urging him to conduct a public investigation to assess the country’s readiness for a second wave of the coronavirus epidemic that could come next winter. According to the authors of the letter, more than half of whom are professors of virology, epidemiology, public health and other areas, the UK’s fundamental deficiencies, which have led to some of the highest death rates in the world, must remedy.
The letter accuses the UK government of failing to properly coordinate its response to the coronavirus at the local government level, failing to adequately respond to scientific findings, and failing to plan the procurement of essential goods and services during an epidemic.
The UK government has not commented on the investigators’ letter, but some ministers have hesitantly promised to find time to “learn lessons” once the coronavirus epidemic ends. The Prime Minister goes on to say that he is very proud of the government’s achievements in preventing further development of coronaviruses, despite the fact that the number of coronavirus deaths in the UK has already exceeded 40,000 or more than British scientists they could call an effective fight against the coronavirus.
The UK government’s distraction and indecision is exacerbated by growing opposition from some of the ruling Conservative MPs to the newly enacted 14-day self-isolation requirement for all foreigners, including UK citizens. Critics say this demand for self-isolation will completely ruin the aviation and tourism sectors and prevent British vacations abroad.
At the same time, the UK government has been criticized for failing to launch a coronavirus development monitoring program, which was initially expected to go into full operation in June this year, and is now being postponed until the early autumn of this year. . According to researchers at the University of Oxford, at least 60% of the application should be used to control the development of the coronavirus. the country’s population; In other words, postponing the app’s universal launch in the fall further increases the likelihood of a second wave of the epidemic.
Many parents and teachers of children are concerned about the return of elementary children to school, and also since June 15. It allowed non-essential goods stores to open, the opening of which coincides with the government’s requirement as of June 15. wearing face masks on public transport for the entire population, although at the beginning of the epidemic the government said that the effectiveness of face masks was low and that it was not necessary to use them in the country.
Researchers in many countries agree that to avoid a second wave of coronavirus, the so-called R number (coronavirus reproduction rate or virus spread) must be less than 1.
Currently, the R number ranges from 0.7 to 0.9 across the UK and from 0.7 to 1 in England. According to Public Health England and the University of Cambridge, R is more than 1 in North West England and about 1 in South West England. . In other words, at least England is about to see the coronavirus epidemic reappear in the near future.
The researchers predict that a second wave of the coronavirus epidemic is more likely this fall or winter, when seasonal flu cases will reemerge. While there is no evidence that climate change has a strong impact on the development of the coronavirus, the UK health system may not be able to bear the enormous strain if the country is simultaneously affected by seasonal flu and the coronavirus recurrent.
Furthermore, it is feared that a second wave of the coronavirus epidemic could be caused by a mutated virus, as happened a century ago for the Spanish flu, which claimed tens to tens of millions of lives. If the coronavirus mutates, the second wave of the epidemic will darken the current epidemic in intensity and consequences, and the predicted R-score could reach 4 – the second wave would have catastrophic consequences if a coronavirus vaccine is not developed by then.
To avoid a second wave of coronavirus and an R score of less than 1, scientists urge the country’s authorities not to relax and continue to evaluate as many people as possible, to maintain strict hygiene (frequent hand washing, use of masks) and social distance requirements to successfully prevent the development of coronaviruses. In some countries where the coronavirus epidemic appears to have diminished (China, South Korea, the Middle East, and elsewhere), new outbreaks of the coronavirus outbreak have forced a return to strict quarantine measures, which are now increasingly being eradicated. in the UK and other European countries.
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