In the secret analysis of the party, there are unexpected scenarios for the outcome of the elections and strange coalitions.

An online poll commissioned by the Freedom Party on the OMD Snapshots internet panel showed that in the Seimas elections, 19.3% were inclined to vote for the National Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) and 15 % by the Green Union of Lithuanian Peasants (LVŽS). percent surveyed

10.6 percent 10.5% of the respondents would vote for the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP). – for the Labor Party, 9.8 percent. – for the liberal movement, 7.8 percent. – For the Freedom Party.

4.10 percent of those surveyed would have voted for social workers. 3.7 percent of those surveyed would have chosen the Lithuanian Freedom Union (Liberal) and “Order and Justice”, which have now merged into a common political entity, for which 2.8 percent would have voted. applauded

The Polish Lithuanian Election Campaign-Union of Christian Families (LLRA) has only 1.1 percent of Internet users. support for. 15.3 percent respondents would have chosen another option.

The survey was conducted from June 1 to 9. Young people from 18 to 74 years old attended. Lithuanian Internet users: a total of 1,026 respondents. Research error indicated: 3.06 percent.

The survey results would suggest a cautious approach.

Mykolas Romeris University (MRU) professor, political scientist Rima Urbonaitė, would suggest evaluating the results of the online survey with caution.

“Such a survey can be considered sufficiently representative in terms of the number of respondents, as both Vilmorus’ and Spinter’s surveys survey a similar number of people, but it should be noted that this survey is only online. This introduces some correction , in which case it is necessary to look at the sections, how many and in which age groups were interviewed and what is the geographical distribution of the respondents.

Maybe we have more metropolitan views here. Those percentages are likely to have increased more just because there are fewer undecided voters, “said R. Urbonaitė.

The prognosis for “peasants” is ambiguous

According to further analysis by the party, the LVŽS will gather fewer seats during the elections than in 2016. However, the recent decline in popularity has been slowed by the COVID-19 epidemic and frequent direct contact by Aurelijus Veryga and Saulius Skvernelis with people during quarantine, as well as opportunities to earn the loyalty of various voting groups through various benefits.

“The LVŽS ‘biggest success in the elections will depend on the strength of the economic recession in the fall and the chances of a return of the second wave of COVID-19. If there is not a second wave of the epidemic and the economy is sinking In a deep recession at that time, the LVU will inevitably lose the election and not form a ruling majority.

On the other hand, if the government has to organize another quarantine procedure in the autumn, the change in LVŽS’s ratings will depend on the perception of the threat level of the epidemic in Lithuania and in the world. If not high, quarantine is likely to annoy the public and lead to a decrease in LVUS ratings. If the threat is high, it encourages the public to focus on the politicians who show leadership, and this may become an opportunity for the LLMS to regain its popularity, “says Freedom Party in a leaked party document.

He notes that “the LVŽS is the most distant political force for Freedom Party voters, but it has more opportunities than TS-LKD (National Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats) to form a ruling majority.”

“It is easier for the LVŽS than the TS-LKD to agree a ruling majority with the LSDP (Social Democratic Party of Lithuania), the Labor Party, the Polish Election Campaign of Lithuania, it is also possible to agree with the LLRS (Polish Electoral Union of Lithuania ), the Christian span of TS-LKD and other smaller policies effective. Therefore, although the LV®S may lose the Seimas elections, the TS-LKD may not be able to form a coalition, and then, if the LV®S takes the initiative, it would consist of smaller political players. There would be nothing new in that, in principle, such a principle achieves a political majority in the Seimas even now, “declares the party in its pre-electoral analysis.

A more interesting question is who would play the first violin when forming a coalition.

Commenting on the statements made in the party analysis, MRU political scientist R. Urbonaitė agreed that the LVŽS is likely to win fewer seats during these Seimas elections than in 2016.

“It just came to our attention then. Only in 2016 the number of seats was impressive, and it would certainly be very difficult to collect the same number of seats because we are talking about the ruling party, and it is always difficult to collect a large number of seats for such parties.

The farmers, if they collected at least half of what they had in 2016, would be fine, because we are talking about 25-30 seats. To participate in the coalition negotiations, this is already a sufficient weight. With so many seats, you can run for a very serious partner in the ruling coalition, ”said R. Urbonaitė.

The political scientist also agreed that conservatives have a lot of headaches about how and with whom to form a ruling coalition after the elections.

“His coalition with the ‘peasants’ is hard to imagine. With the Social Democrats, too, (…) that coalition would have very little in common. (…) Conservatives would probably wish that both the Liberal Movement and the Freedom were successful in the elections, but that may not be enough. And there will not be so many newcomers with whom you can try to scale something. Therefore, I think the “peasants” who would not form a coalition with the Social Democrats, the ” workers “and the LLRA have a good opportunity,” said R. Urbonaitė.

A more interesting question, according to the political scientist, is who will be the first in a possible coalition: “peasants” or social democrats.

“It just came to our attention then. If you play the first violin, then you have an instrument that you can use when pressing to negotiate publications,” said R. Urbonaitė.

Provides various risk factors for conservatives.

According to the Freedom Party document, TS-LKD is currently the seed of the Seimas election, but various risk factors paint ambiguous scenarios for the party’s development.

“The internal division of the TS-LKD into conservative and Christian nationalist groups has hitherto operated in the sense that the Christian wing of the party had no real political alternatives (threatened to disappear from political life after leaving the party), for what accepted a secondary role and the opportunity to participate, the bigger parts “, said the document.

In its document, the Freedom Party states that the party’s internal ranking, which has elevated nationalist / Christian politicians, as well as the unanimous vote of party members (except President G. Landsbergis) along with the LVŽS in the Seimas on the law in Lukiškės Square show that the conservative G. Landsberg’s party leadership is losing influence.

“It is also weakened by weak party leadership: 1. President G. Landsbergis and the party’s electoral headquarters have so far failed to neutralize the image of arrogant politics and turn the TS-LKD into a convergent Western popular party. 2. The personal political passivity of the leader of the list I. Šimonytė and the attempts to maneuver between different party groupings to adjust to the worldviews of all the groups in practice become an avoidance of speaking in principle on sensitive topics.

“This gravity of the TS-LKD towards the nationalist parties in Western Europe opens up opportunities for the Freedom Party to assume part of the conservative wing, since the Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement are the second frequent options of the voters of the TS -LKD, “says the document.

The strategy establishes that the links between the TS-LKD, the Liberal Movement and the voters of the Freedom Party in naming the second and third elections make these political forces natural ideological partners to form a post-electoral coalition, but the latter will depend on the results of the TS-LKD.

“The following scenarios are projected: 1. If the TS-LKD wins the election and has the opportunity to form a government, and the conservative wing on the TS-LKD list does not lose its position after qualification, it is likely that the TS -LKD offers to join the coalition of the Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement. Freedom Party may position itself as the most principled value political force, that TS-LKD politicians will not be able to maneuver to maneuver among internal party groups, and thus not lose its popularity.

2. If the TS-LKD disaster elections do not have a chance to form a government, it is highly likely that TS-LKD representatives, who have spent two terms in the opposition, will look for any opportunity to join the rulers. If G. Landsbergis opposes this, and the politicians of the Christian wing do not disperse the positions accumulated during the party classification, a scenario of isolation of the current coup / leadership and the formation of a coalition with the LV®S is likely while seizes the nationalist platform. In this case, the Freedom Party’s cooperation with the TS-LKD is not possible, ”the document reads.

According to the Freedom Party, the formation of a joint electoral list with the TS-LKD is unlikely due to strengthened anti-liberal positions after the party’s internal ranking, but it would not be beneficial to the party itself for two reasons:

“1. The Freedom Party would lose its unique value;

2. The core of the Freedom Party candidates consists of new public figures who have not previously participated in politics, therefore would lose more than the TS-LKD during ranking on the multi-member constituency list. However, the harmonization of candidates in the single-member constituencies in which the Freedom Party is interested would be significant and could be considered. “
Forecasts – for the liberal movement and the social democrats

According to the document, the policies linking the Liberal Movement and the right-wing Freedom Party make these parties natural political allies, “but ideological problems will not be important to the Liberal Movement in choosing coalition partners.”

“The Liberal Movement can become the axis of the political majority led by TS-LKD and LVJS. It will depend on which political force pragmatically offers the Liberal Movement more political positions in the Government or financial support to develop and maintain infrastructure projects in the regions for individual candidates and support mayors. ” The results of the Liberal Movement in the case of political corruption could have a significant impact on the results of the Liberal Movement, but they should not be announced before the elections, ”says the analysis by the Freedom Party.

Analyzing the role of the Social Democrats (LSDP), the Freedom Party states that the LSDP is unlikely to agree to form a majority with the TS-LKD by choosing between the two poles that make up the Government, the TS-LKD and the LVŽS.

“This contradiction would be determined by historical, ideological and pragmatic factors within the LSDP. The LSDP would be much easier for its supporters to justify a coalition with the LVS than with the hostile TS-LKD for decades, although it would be easier for the conservative wing of the TS-LKD working with the LSDP, which is losing its ex-communist tone, than the LVS If the TS-LKD could offer the LSDP adequate political concessions and communicate them politically appropriately, it could be considered a broad rainbow coalition between the TS-LKD, the LSDP, the Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement, but it is doubtful that such a coalition is stable in the long term – It is written in the document.

I would agree that post-election displacement is possible

Political scientist R. Urbonaitė was skeptical about the possibility of a “black stage” for a coup d’état or split in the TS-LKD party after the elections.

“Overall, I think there are likely to be problems within the TS-LKD after the unfavorable end to the election, and that in the end we will look for those who will be held accountable for not the first consecutive failure.” (…) We see that there is already a situation of dissatisfaction, as well as the fact that there are two wings at the party. But if one wing wanted the government to accept scratching after the elections, it would be careful with such statements, “said R. Urbonaitė.

He also questioned the possibility that conservative cricket players agreed to join a coalition with the left.

“See who they would hypothetically go to the coalition with: the ‘peasants’, the Social Democrats, the ‘workers’.” Imagine if Laurynas Kasčiūnas, Audronius Ažubalis, Žygimantas Pavilionis, separated from the party core, joined the coalition with the Labor Party, ”said R. Urbonaitė.

A political scientist, he has so far not been inclined to make statements like that “G. The Landsberg party leadership is losing influence.”

“Obviously, the other wing of the party is active enough. Sometimes they are more active than others. You can also see there are dividing lines and sometimes dissatisfaction within the party. However, I think it would be too soon to say categorically that Mr. Landsbergis is losing influence in the party.

It will depend on the electoral results. If they are unfavorable to TS-LKD, there will obviously be serious problems. And then Mr. Landsberg’s situation will worsen. If the election results are favorable, then G. Landsbergis’s position will not be so weak, “stated R. Urbonaitė.

See the pragmatism of the Labor Party and the LLRA

According to the Freedom Party analysis, other political forces are likely 5 percent. the Labor Party (DP) and the LLRA will cross the threshold.

“The DP rating increase was halted during the quarantine, and party leader V. Uspaskich will not marry him due to reluctance to lose the MEP’s mandate, hence the DP’s prospects of garnering more votes they are limited, but they can become golden votes for those who make up the ruling majority. ” The DP himself will analyze the formation of the coalition in a pragmatic way and will seek to join the more proactive side.

The LLRA situation is analogous, if it exceeds 5%. Threshold, the ruling majority will choose pragmatically, but is much more likely to form it with the LVŽS due to the latter’s lower requirements. It will be much more difficult for TS-LKD to justify a coalition with DP and LLRA. The LP could cooperate with both political forces, but should demand that the executive positions do not include people who can compromise and represent a threat to national security, “the analysis states.

He sees the points of overlap between the provisions of Nausėda and LVŽS

The analysis also discusses the role of President Gitan Nauseda. According to Freedom Party analysts, it will traditionally be important to form a new majority in the Seimas and appoint a government.

“Currently, G. Nausėda’s ideological provisions overlap to a large extent with the LVŽS’s positions on one-off payments to increase state spending, the establishment of the state bank, and other issues of social and economic policy. In the field of G. Nausėda also occupies culturally conservative positions near the LVŽS In this case, you can see G. Nausėda’s attempts to adapt to the political narrative dictated by the LVŽS, and this differs from V. Adamkus, who tried create its political base and rise above all the political party policies applied by D. Grybauskaitė ”, the document reads.

On the other hand, according to the document, “G. Nausėda’s attempts to overload his policy by changing part of the advisory body are already visible.”

“For the Freedom Party, this should be used as an opportunity to establish closer and more direct contacts of the leaders with the Presidency, thus better explaining the decisions made by the party and the Municipality of the city of Vilnius and finding points in common, “reads the document.

I don’t think a change in team means a change in the president’s performance.

Political scientist R. Urbonaitė considers the statement about G. Nausėda’s attempts to “adapt to the political narrative dictated by the LVŽS” strange.

“It just came to our attention then. Maybe there are only coincidences somewhere. Nausėda’s speech as an economist and Nausėda’s speech as president differ, for example, in 2008-2009. Crisis management. I don’t see that drama. Human attitudes can change, it is not something that should be concretized.

In some subjects, it is obvious that there are overlaps, in Lukiškės Square (…), up to where I listened to his public speech, as well as on socioeconomic issues. The President also had initiatives to increase pensions, benefits and NPD ”, indicated R. Urbonaitė.

However, it does not seem to a political scientist that changes in the presidential team could lead to changes in his activities.

“That team may support such views even more. Perhaps the team changed because certain views did not coincide. Therefore, I could not say that the team change will mean a greater opportunity for Freedom Party to maintain more intense contact. Opportunities on all sides are equal in the sense that they all have the opportunity to go, speak and try to persuade, “said R. Urbonaitė.