In the context of the toughest U.S. sanctions to date, the Kremlin tends to take risks – this is the only option left.

June 4 A bipartisan group of US senators introduced a bill proposing to extend the sanctions adopted in December to list any companies that provided or will provide insurance services, equipment and technology, port infrastructure, area exploration, etc. services for the Gazprom infrastructure project. The same applies to the TurkStream gas pipeline project between Russia and Turkey.

The sanctions announced in December also applied to ships building the pipeline at sea, therefore the Swiss and Dutch company Allseas had to cancel two special ships before Christmas, writes the portal politico.eu.

“The sanctions … have been an extremely effective obstacle to the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline,” said New Hampshire Senator Jeanne Shaheen in a press release. “We must continue our efforts to ensure that Russia does not secretly expand its harmful influence in Europe.”

An article published in the Russian publication RBC in early June said that the multipurpose construction ship Akademik Čersky, which was to complete the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, had been removed from the Gazprom official website. It is now listed in the Russian Ships Database as part of the Samara Thermal Energy Property Fund, a private joint venture between Gazprom’s two real estate subsidiaries.

In this way, Gazprom is believed to want to protect the ship from sanctions.

„V. Putin still wants to evade sanctions, so this new bill would make it clear once and for all that anyone who contributes to the construction of the pipeline in any way will immediately be subject to severe US sanctions, “said Republican Senator Tedo Cruz. in a press release.

Politics or economy?

The 1,240 km two-branch pipeline (expected to supply twice the gas from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, up to 110 billion cubic meters per year) has two parallel pipe sections (75 km long each) ) to be placed in Denmark. and German waters.

The United States, Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic countries were categorically opposed to this project, seeing it as an attempt by Russia to increase its geopolitical influence.

The European Commission (EC) is concerned about the impact of the pipeline on the energy security of the EU. The German government decided not to intervene and called it a business project.

Representatives of Nord Stream 2 AG, owned by Gazprom and registered in Switzerland, believe that the sanctions would harm European companies.

“Western European energy companies in Austria, Germany, France and the Netherlands have pledged to invest € 1 billion each. In addition, more than 1,000 companies in 25 countries are committed [prisidėti prie projekto] and is waiting for it to be implemented, “said a Nord Stream 2 spokesperson.

Previous U.S. sanctions have caused outrage in the EU.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell warned last year that “the EU does not recognize the extraterritorial application of EU sanctions because it considers it contrary to international law.”

March 23 French MEP Emmanuel Maurel asked the EC how he intends to protect the companies that contributed to the project. This question has not been answered so far.

When Allseas pulled out of the project, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in January that only his country could complete the project by the end of the year.

In May, the construction ship Akademik Čersky set sail from the Japan Sea and reached the Baltic Sea. The published photos of the ship arriving in the German port of Mukran appeared in mid-May.

Doubts about legality

There has been some debate as to whether Akademik Čersky is technically capable and can legally complete the Nord Stream 2 project, according to a building permit issued by a Danish agency.

Agency spokesman Ture Falbe-Hansen said that despite the work suspended in December, the project’s permit was still valid.

“In accordance with the pipe laying guidelines, Nord Stream 2 AG must inform us and send us an updated plan,” said Falbe-Hansen. “Then we will assess whether the plan is in line with the permit and the environmental assessment.”

Falbe-Hansen said last Thursday that Nord Stream 2 had not yet submitted an updated plan.

The permit conditions stipulate that the pipes will be laid by a vessel with a dynamic positioning function, a motorized system with which the vessel can change direction more smoothly and accurately than older vessels with anchored turns.

The unexploded bombs left in some parts of the Baltic Sea since World War II are also concerning. Admittedly, Nord Stream 2 claims that the remaining construction sites are far from those regions.

Mateusz Kubiak, an oil and gas analyst at the Warsaw-based energy consultancy Esperis, noted that the Russian government launched a public tender in March to resume dynamic positioning aboard the Akademik Čersky. According to M. Kubiak, the ship will probably be repaired and renovated. According to M. Kubiak, the final stage of pipe laying can take three to four months.

Careers

Another thing is if the new bill in the United States can be approved by both Houses of Congress before construction is complete.

“Americans have several months left to pass the law, undermine Nord Stream 2 and possibly suspend the project,” said Kubiak.

But even if the pipeline is completed, it is not a guarantee that Gazprom can supply gas.

The Danish authorization states that the Norwegian company Det Norske Veritas, as an independent third party, will inspect and authorize the pipeline. However, this may be hampered by US sanctions. As the Norwegian company may be on the sanctions list.

“If the company were forced to leave, it would become a big problem,” said Kubiak. Even if, in theory, inspection and certification were carried out by a Russian company, it would hardly be considered an independent third party, Kubiak added.

Gazprom’s buoyancy may be hampered by the recent relocation of the Akademik Čersky ship, as the sanctions that went into effect in December include “foreigners … who have sold, leased or provided boats for the construction of such a project; or have participated in deceptive or structural actions to provide ships for the construction of said project. “

However, all of this may not be enough to stop the construction of the pipeline. Gazprom sent Akademik Čersky to Europe in February, aware of the US sanctions.

I think they are still willing to risk the Gazprom fleet suffering sanctions, because the company has been subject to US sanctions since 2016, after the annexation of Crimea and the use of force in Ukraine, Kubiak said. Certain 2016 The sanctions are less severe.

“I think they already calculated and said: well, the Gazprom float will be sanctioned, but that is our only option,” added Kubiak.

If Washington applies the sanctions imposed on Gazprom’s parent company in December (which has so far abstained), the EU will have considerable pressure to react, as Gazprom’s gas supplies account for 40%. All European natural gas.

“We must remember that there is interdependence in the field of energy,” Borell said at an annual ambassadorial conference in Germany in May. “We need a smart balance between force, sanctions against Russia and a careful attempt to reach an agreement in some areas.”

The Kremlin hopes to avoid sanctions

Moscow hopes that the Republican proposals by the United States to impose new sanctions on Russia will remain simple statements and will not be implemented, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday.

“We are following reports of such speeches and suggestions for new restrictions.” In general, we consider such restrictions to be illegal under international law and, of course, we can only regret the new impetus that certain people are trying to give American politicians. ” Peskov told reporters.

In this way, he commented on the Republican proposal to impose new sanctions on Russia, which would be the most severe of all.

“Of course, this does not help normalize our bilateral relations. We hope that these plans are kept at the level of declarations and are not realized in any way,” said D. Peskov.

According to him, the issue of Moscow-Washington relations constantly sounds in the United States in the run-up to the elections.

“Of course, as the United States election campaign draws nearer, our country and our Russian-American bilateral relations are becoming so sacred a sacrifice to American politicians that it is necessary to achieve any electoral success. We regret that.” said a Kremlin spokesman.

“The most difficult to offer”

On Wednesday, Republicans in the House of Representatives released a report on their national security strategy, strengthening the role of the United States and addressing global threats. The document proposes the introduction of “the toughest sanctions in history” against Russia, Iran and the Chinese Communist Party.

As for Moscow, the strategy includes “a proposal to introduce secondary sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas projects, Russia’s public debt, pro-Russian structures in other countries, and a definition of Russia as a supporter of terrorism.”

Furthermore, the report suggests “communicating directly with the Russian people and supporting their aspirations for democracy and respect for human rights.”

As for China, it intends to punish Communist Party leaders for the alleged crackdown on the Uighur minority in Beijing, as well as the situation in Hong Kong, riddled with protests by the democratic movement.

The authors of the report believe that in this case, specific measures will be more effective than large-scale customs measures, as the latter would have a negative impact on the United States. In addition, it aims to disrupt China’s propaganda efforts and prevent the country from acquiring critical American technologies.

It also demands additional sanctions against Tehran and pro-Iranian structures in the Gulf region, such as militant groups in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon.

In all, the document lists 130 measures to combat “America’s most aggressive opponents on the world stage.”

This report was prepared for about a year and a half, the authors note.

However, the proposed measures are of a recommendation nature and are not considered a bill.