How we will live with the coronavirus: the immunologist has provided scenarios that will wait in the coming months

This pandemic is not the first to hit humanity. With whom can the course of pandemics be compared?

Each pandemic can be compared to a fire. It flares up, spreads, covering more and more new areas, but after a while it begins to fade. The fire goes out sooner or later, although sometimes separate fires remain. In the history of the world, the same thing happens with the spread of viruses.

Sometimes the spread of viruses stops spontaneously, as has happened with the SARS and MERS viruses. More often, the spread of viruses is overcome by active human actions, such as vaccines, new drugs, social isolation. Sometimes viruses are stopped by acquired collective immunity.

The course of this pandemic is also reminiscent of a fire: in some places, including our country, it is already suppressing. However, although the situation is improving in Lithuania, as in a large part of the EU, some critical points, such as Russia or Brazil, are simply “on fire” today, like the pandemic wave here later.

How will we continue to live or have diseases this summer?

Before talking about what will happen in the future or if we will have new pandemic peaks, we must understand that this spring wave of the new coronavirus has not ended and that the total number of new diseases in the world continues to increase.

However, in the background of the pandemic, you can also see bright colors. The next time of year: Summer should at least make the people of our country quite optimistic. There may be isolated cases of coronavirus or even local foci, but the general situation suggests that we can breathe better.

Unless we relax too much, forget to act responsibly, everything should be fine at this time of year.

There are increasing warnings that we may see a new wave of disease in the fall. Are such predictions likely to come true?

No one knows the exact answer as it will be in the fall or winter. If a new wave will emerge, how big it will be, will only be clear in October or later.

There are now a number of allegations that the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus could repeat the course of the Spanish flu that spread in 1918-1920. It was the second wave of Spanish flu during the autumn-winter season that was the largest and with the most lives in the world. However, the analogy with these historical events is not very precise.

Recall that the Spanish flu spread after the First World War. At that time, people’s immunity was weakened, food was lacking, people suffered from poverty and deprivation, sanitation was poor, and the health system was relatively low. The current positions of humanity are much better.

Does this mean that science does not yet know the seasonality of the new coronavirus?

Currently, science cannot say whether the new coronavirus outbreaks will be seasonal. If COVID-19 becomes a seasonal phenomenon, the new coronavirus epidemics will be similar to seasonal flu, allowing us to breathe at least in the summers. Also, we should have the opportunity to prepare for the challenges of the cold season.

We all know that the flu is a seasonal phenomenon. However, few have likely heard of seasonal coronaviruses. What are these coronaviruses?

There are currently 4 known human coronaviruses that cause mild or asymptomatic infections called colds. The names of these viruses are rare (229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1), but these viruses are constantly circulating in the population. For most of us, they are not dangerous, so not everyone knows their seasonality. However, such coronaviruses do exist, so the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 may also become seasonal cannot be ruled out.

However, the dangerous SARS and MERS coronaviruses did not become seasonal. Why did this happen?

As for the really dangerous human coronaviruses like SARS (SARS-CoV-1) and MERS, they did not become seasonal for a reason: the outbreaks of these viruses were located and did not spread in the same way as SARS-CoV -2. The outbreak of the first SARS virus (SARS-CoV-1) started in 2002. in late 2003 and lasted until 2003. June 2004 and since 2004 No cases of infection have been reported worldwide. The MERS outbreak began in 2012. Isolated cases of this infection have been reported since the late 1800s and since, but the virus has spread little and has caused no memory.

If we record cases of the new coronavirus in the cold season, will we have outbreaks of seasonal flu with them?

In fact, we likely have both SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal influenza virus illnesses at the same time. Even more so because a person can be infected with the influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 at the same time. This combination is truly unfortunate, as it would make it harder for the immune system to fight the “two fronts” and thus make it harder to beat COVID-19.

Perhaps that is why global epidemiologists are publicly calling for a responsible approach to flu prevention that we will receive this year?

The world will have to pay even more attention to the prevention of influenza, the season of which awaits us in six months. After all, people with flu complications would occupy hospital beds, and COVID-19 patients might need those beds.

What does seasonal flu prevention look like in Lithuania?

We don’t know yet what seasonal flu will circulate this year, but when it becomes clear, much attention will be paid to preventing flu around the world.

As for Lithuania, we would like to be pleased that in our country, the prevention of seasonal influenza has been seen more and more responsibly. People are becoming more aware and vaccinated against the flu because they understand that it protects not only themselves but also other members of society.

While the future course of the pandemic is unclear and the world may face new challenges, we are learning more and more about SARS-CoV-2. Are the lessons learned valuable to humanity?

The lessons learned in the fight against the pandemic caused by this virus are certainly valuable, although they can be really expensive. The experience gained allows a better understanding of the new coronavirus and an understanding of its weaknesses. The better we know it, the sooner we will find ways to overcome it.