Hot tub: the real purpose of Macron’s visit is not to meet Nausėda

Three factors for the fate of Belarus

A politician on Facebook recalled that it would be two months after the massive protests against Alexander Lukashenko’s regime began. While there are no signs that Lukashenko has begun to hesitate, protests in the country are also failing.

“Some people, even the concerned ones in Lithuania, say that the supporters of democracy in Belarus are incapable of defeating, because even after two months there are no signs that the Lukashenko regime will start to fluctuate and back down, frightened by the street protests. But on the other hand, it is clear that both in Lukashenko’s surroundings and in the Kremlin itself, which supports Lukashenko, there is much concern that even two months later the brutal pressure of the regime will not be able to suppress or weaken the street protest “, assured the politician.

A. Kubilius wrote that this time is a great opportunity to clearly establish which essential factors will continue to determine the dynamics of events in Belarus. The politician pointed out three: the power of the protests in the streets of Belarus, Putin’s support for Lukashenko and Western influence.

Writing about the power of the protests in Minsk, the MEP said that what the Belarusian people had achieved so far was a historical miracle.

“This is a completely new type of democratic revolution, which can be called an online revolution, and it does not yet need traditional political leaders or long programming languages ​​to justify the aims of the revolution.” Therefore, it is difficult to destroy it. And this is his strength, not his weakness “, – A. Kubilius taught his point of view.

The politician wrote that “the energy of peaceful protest, the Belarusian revolution, inspired the energy of solidarity in the Western world, and now the West must take concrete steps to help the revolution conserve its energy for a longer period of time. “.

The influence of Russian President Putin in Belarus is also a well-known factor, Kubilius wrote.

“This is the only factor that still prevents Lukashenko from retiring,” the politician concluded.

However, Putin’s long-term support for Lukashenko could have negative consequences: the people of Belarus will turn away not only from Lukashenko, but also from Putin, the Kremlin and all of Russia.

“As happened in Ukraine in 2014, after Putin chose to support Yanukovych, not the Ukrainian people. Thus, thanks to Putin, a pro-Western Ukraine was formed. In the same way, a pro-Western Belarus may emerge if Putin does not understand for a long time how toxic his support for Lukashenko seems in the eyes of Belarusians, “said A. Kubilius on Facebook.

Despite the possible negative consequences of Putin’s support for the Belarusian leader, Lukashenko’s fate is in the hands of the Russian leader.

“It is clear that Putin is in no hurry to use that key and open the door for Lukashenko’s withdrawal. Putin understands that with that trump card, he could raise the price by negotiating with the West to attract Lukashenko. One can only speculate on prices. What Putin is demanding: that Belarus’ geopolitical association with Russia does not change; that the West forget Putin’s “sins” in Ukraine; in the end, that the West simply open its arms to Putin? “he asked.

Although, as A. Kubilius writes, we will not know the answers to these questions, Putin can be affected by two factors: the growing number of anti-Putin posters on the streets of Minsk and the constant efforts of the West to convince Putin that the Lukashenko’s withdrawal is also beneficial.

“It should come as no surprise that we have to do some nasty work on this issue and persuade Putin,” he wrote.

Kubilius taught on the social network that the West, although it does not have much influence, must not only speak out, but also persuade Putin to give up his support for Lukashenko.

“And most importantly, the West can convince Putin. If the West believes that this period marks not only the end of Lukashenko, but also a very marked phase of Putin’s downsizing,” the TS-LKD spokesman said.

A politician on Facebook taught that the West could take immediate action to: launch an international investigation into OMON’s crimes; By applying Magnickis sanction mechanisms to the Baltic States and exploiting the rules of the Schengen area, visa ban sanctions can be applied to the hundreds or thousands of OMON offending officials on the Traikovsky list; The European Parliament may appoint a high-level mission of former presidents, similar to the Kwasniewski / Cox mission, once established to deal with the crisis in Ukraine; EU efforts can lead to a realistic Marshall Plan to support the economy of a democratic Belarus.

Macron’s real goal in Lithuania

On Monday, the President of France, E. Macron, visited Lithuania. According to A. Kubilius, his main objective was to meet Sviatlana Cichanouskaya.

“Although it was officially announced that the President of France, E. Macron, will visit Lithuania at the invitation of G. Nausėda, it can be assumed that the main purpose of the visit is to meet with S. Cychanouskaya. All this is hidden under the powerful formula of French diplomacy, who meets Sviatlana Cychanouskaja only because she received her request in Vilnius, and not because she was the main objective of the visit from the beginning ”, taught A. Kubilius on Facebook.

Before the visit, Cichanouskaya had already publicly asked Macron to mediate talks with Putin about Lukashenko’s capture.

“It just came to our knowledge then. And very important for the future dynamics of the Belarusian revolution.
Macron has also shown that he is ready for that role, announcing in advance in the press that Lukashenko must retire. “While Merkel plans to withdraw from big politics, Macron is showing her determination and leadership in solving the major problems of the European continent,” said the politician.

The MEP said Macron had the ambition and energy to make a big difference.

“He is suspected of being really willing to persuade Putin to attract Lukashenko, explaining to him that this is the only way to implement Macron’s biggest ‘grand narrative’: putting Russia back into the arms of Europe, because To achieve that, Putin must to play the role of a “good policeman” eliminating Lukashenko, “the conservative A. Kubilius taught his views on social networks.

“There are serious doubts about Macron’s plan to return Putin to the embrace of Europe, but if Macron’s efforts to do so will help bring about a democratic revolution in Belarus, it will only be possible to congratulate Macron.

Because the victory of democracy in Belarus, no matter how its development unfolds in the near future, will have enormous geopolitical consequences, especially for the future development of Russia itself. And for that reason, it’s worth giving Macron a chance to fight heroically for his “great narratives.”

It is only important that in the Kremlin he defends the fundamental interest of the Belarusian people: new elections at the beginning and only then a new Constitution “, A. Kubilius emphasized the essential aspect.

The politician wrote that the West can really play a special role if it comes out of a “state of concern.”

“Lithuania’s task is this: not to compete with statements of” concern “, but to seek new opportunities for real action. And not only on the scale of Lithuania itself, but also on the scale of the entire West.
E. Macron’s visit to Lithuania is an example of such an operation. And it is not so important how the idea of ​​such a visit was born ”, taught MEP A. Kubilius on Facebook.