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The State Energy Regulatory Council (VERT) points out that the forecasts have been made taking into account the increase in fuel prices: the latter will change and the expected price of heat will change.
“Taking into account current trends in fuel markets, the City Council predicts that the next heating season will be 27-30% more expensive on average in the country compared to the previous one,” Councilor Matas Taparauskas told BNS.
A VERT member said that of the big cities, the price should grow the most in Vilnius, at that time in Kaunas, up to 5-10 percent.
“In Vilnius, since natural gas is used, the price of heat is forecast to be 50-60 percent higher than the previous heating season, while in Kaunas, Šiauliai or Klaipėda, where mainly biofuels are used, the prices can grow less significantly, up to 20%, ”said a VERT member.
Ūdrys Staselka, representative of Kauno Energija, has not yet predicted how the price will change, but according to him, it is likely that in Kaunas it will be one of the lowest in Lithuania.
“We cannot name it yet, because we do not know much yet. Many unknowns, we still cannot answer, our price is likely to remain the cheapest or one of the cheapest in Lithuania,” Staselka told BNS.
“We buy heat at auctions, we really don’t know at what price we will buy that heat,” he added.
Arūnas Liubinavičius, representative of Klaipedos Energija, says the trends are not encouraging. According to him, in Klaipeda more than 70 percent. heat is purchased from independent producers: industrial companies, waste incineration companies.
“Auctions are announced every month, depending on your appetite, as they occupy a dominant market share, the price they offer in Klaipeda depends on the price they offer,” A. Liubinavičius told BNS.
According to him, in September, compared to the same period last year, the price of heating is 40 percent. higher, which was due to the increase in prices of independent producers.
“The fixed costs of the company have not changed like last year, and they are. And the variable costs, which depend on energy resources, fuel, electricity and heat purchased from abroad, this part is growing significantly, ”said a representative from Klaipedos Energija.
According to him, during the year the price of heating increased by 39.4%, the variable part of the price by 87.7%. increased due to higher gas prices. In addition, the price of raw material for biofuels increased 8.9% during the year, while the price of independent producers increased 3.7 times.
According to A. Liubinavičius, the heating season in Klaipėda usually starts at the latest in Lithuania, but there is a tendency that many houses, especially new ones, do not wait for the start of the season and heat up earlier.
According to the VERT member, according to the council’s calculations, the average of 60 square meters M. Meters of space at the expense of heat can grow from a third to a quarter, or about 15-20 euros.
According to M. Taparauskas, the size of the bill also depends on whether the apartment is renovated or not, as well as the air temperature.
Heat will rise in price throughout Lithuania
Valdas Lukoševičius, President of the Lithuanian Heat Suppliers Association (LŠTA), says that it is not necessary to expect a decrease in the price of heat in Lithuania: “There is no reason for the decrease.”
According to him, the expected price growth really looks drastic, but only when compared to the extremely low prices in the winter of 2020-2021.
“These percentages look horrible, because we are comparing them to last season, when heating prices were exceptionally low, both for cheap biofuels and cheap natural gas,” V. Lukoševičius told BNS.
According to him, after the end of cheap Belarusian biofuel imports, which led to cheaper heating last year, the country is now returning to the price level of three or five years ago.
“This is roughly the 2015-2018 level: since then the average price per capita was 5.7 to 5.9 cents, now it will be 5.9 cents. And this is probably a stable long-term price,” he said. the director of LŠTA.
VERT also has a hard time expecting a decline. According to the city council, fuel represents more than 60% of the price of heating, the rest is infrastructure maintenance, salaries and other costs for companies.
“The changes in these costs are certainly not significant enough to offset that negative change in fuel prices. Therefore, we expect the price of heating to decrease in individual municipalities, to this day we do not see this possibility. ”, Said M. Taparauskas.
In turn, in municipalities where prices have already been higher, the price should not drop either. However, according to M. Tarparauskas, where the heat is produced mainly from biofuels, the price increases less, “because biofuels have risen in price by around 40% on average, but the price of natural gas changes sometimes” .
Unfavorable match for capital and future prospects
The drastic increase in the price of heating in Vilnius is related both to significantly higher gas prices on the markets and to the delay in the production of heat from biofuels at the Vilnius cogeneration plant.
“The biofuel boiler has not been put into operation, yes, it has an impact or it has not made it possible to effectively manage this price change for this heating season”, says M. Taparauskas, member of VERT.
V. Lukoševičius believes that cheaper biofuels and building renovations could lower the price of heat in the future.
“There are two solutions: move to local resources that do not travel en masse around the world like gas through Europe. This means that we are attached to biofuels, which are mostly local. And the second decision to simply reduce consumption , renovation, there are not many other roads here, ”said the LŠTA president.
“All the others are subsidies, subsidies that are at the expense of other people, but that is not the way out,” he added.
V. Lukoševičius says that residents with lower incomes can apply to municipalities for partial compensation for heating costs.
“This system is used by many people and is allocated essentially unlimited money, provided that people meet those requirements,” said the LŠTA president.
It also welcomes the proposal of the Ministry of Energy to distribute heating payments throughout the year. According to V. Lukoševičius, although the total annual bill would not decrease as a result, the disproportion would disappear when the entire load dropped in several months.
“We operate the entire heat farm year-round, and we pay for it mainly in two or three months. Yes, as in most countries, that farm maintenance payment covers the fixed costs every month for the whole year and pay for the energy only when it is consumed, then it would be economically logical and a less painful price, ”said V. Lukoševičius.
According to the ministry, using the binary price already established in the law, it would reduce bills by around 15 percent during the cold season. Deputy Energy Minister Inga Žilienė says that heat providers must create conditions for people to choose payment methods.
On the other hand, the ministry believes that this is only a short-term way to reduce heating bills and, in the long run, the heat could be produced from renewable sources, not tied to one type of fuel, with tanks for the excess heat.
