Health experts have provided predictions on how the incidence of the coronavirus in Lithuania may change

The Council of Health Experts presented an updated overview of the epidemiological situation and recommendations for the implementation of vaccination measures. Expert suggestions were presented on preparation for vaccination and its implementation in municipalities: data collection on risk groups and vaccination volumes, establishment of vaccination sites, staff training and coordination of adaptation, provision of methodological assistance to the health institutions of the vaccinators.

The experts identified priority communication challenges for the vaccination process and suggested possible solutions to ensure effective and timely information dissemination.

Predictions provided

As Simon Krėpšta, Senior Advisor to the President and Head of the Economic and Social Group, said after the meeting, if the quarantine measures taken are effective and adhered to in good faith by the public, the impact will be seen fairly quickly.

“It just came to our knowledge then [atvejų] it is quite inert, we currently have about 3,000 boxes a day. If the public really adhere to the requirements in good faith, we would have a positive scenario of around 1000-1500 new cases per day. Later, those numbers would continue to decline.

One of the scenarios if the requirements are not met during the holiday period would be an immediate “rebound” and the daily number of diseases would increase again in mid-January, “predicted the president’s adviser.

So far, the decline in cases does not bring joy

A modeller belonging to the team of the Council of Health Experts formed by the president, dr. Algis Džiugys told a press conference that although fewer new cases were recorded on Monday and Tuesday, this is not encouraging as the number of cases always increases at the end of the week. Furthermore, according to dr. A. Joy, the figures show that the epidemic is far from over.

“If we predict based on the situation we have now, the number of patients should increase. We made two predictions, one pessimistic, to predict how many patients could be in hospitals due to COVID-19.

According to this, in mid-January, according to the worst forecasts, hospitals should have about 3,300 patients. We currently have 2,372. That means the number would increase by a thousand in a few weeks. 1,800 people would need oxygen masks and about 165 would need ventilation equipment, ”said Dr. A. Džiugys.

The most optimistic forecast, according to him, when the population complies in good faith with the quarantine conditions, should be about 1,500 new cases by the end of January. If the quarantine is not enforced enough, there should be another peak in mid-January, with around 2,500 cases per day.

“Even the mobility analysis we get from Google shows that the situation is still bad because of the movement. People were less shopping, less in stores, at work, more at home, but more ‘begetting’ in grocery stores. According to today’s data, Alytus County has the highest movement, more than the Lithuanian average. As a result, we have an increase in infections in Alytus County, “said Dr. A. Džiugys.

Time between morbidity peaks and hospital influx was shortened

According to Kęstutis Strašaitis, associate professor of medicine and nursing, director of Kaunas clinics, if in the past the peak of patient influx in hospitals was felt two weeks after the peak of coronavirus registration, now this peak is felt in institutions a week later.

This is explained by the fact from the doctor that most of the people who have already experienced symptoms have recently requested mobile points.

The president believes restrictions are necessary

Mr. Krėpšta was asked how the President assessed the new quarantine restrictions and the fact that small businesses felt discriminated against.

“As early as Sunday night, the president expressed the position that these adopted restrictions are strict, but necessary. Of the new cases, unfortunately, they are likely to end up in hospitals. As a result, strict restrictions are needed. The measures they are strict but necessary. The public is asked to comply with these measures, “said S. Krėpšta.

First, it will vaccinate doctors and the most vulnerable people

The president’s adviser also presented plans on how the coronavirus vaccines will be delivered to Lithuania and how the vaccination will work.

According to S. Krėpšta, vaccination should start with the doctors and the most vulnerable people: the elderly and those living in social care institutions.

The first vaccines will be limited throughout the European Union. Currently, it is planned to receive 10,000 of the first vaccines.

The vaccines in proportion to the population must be sent to each country of the European Union at the same time. According to S. Krėpšta, the biggest problem is preparing from the logistical communication side so that vaccination does not change.