He warned that with the number of COVID-19 cases declining, releases should not be expected: the threat of new varieties is real

Member of the Independent Expert Advisory Council, Dean of the Faculty of Public Health of the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences (LSMU) prof. Ramunė Kalėdienė to the portal after the WESC meeting Delfi.lt He stressed that while the trend in controlling the spread of the coronavirus in the country is positive, even with the decrease in the number of new cases, quarantine releases should be treated with great caution.

“It is very scary that once we have reached and started moving in the direction of improvement, we will rejoice too soon and fall into the third wave. Exemptions must be examined very carefully and the balance between benefits and benefits must be weighed and evaluated. potential damage, and only the areas that are necessary should be opened. In this case, I am referring to the education of children, their liberation, which is very important, “said Prof. R. Navidad.

At the same time, he assured us that the pandemic would stop spreading if we had no contact. Any relaxation of quarantine conditions means more contacts and, in turn, more contacts also means a higher risk of spreading the virus.

Still no basis for switching to C scripts

As reported by Health Minister Arūnas Dulkys after the SESC meeting, according to data on Sunday, the average number of COVID-19 cases in the country reaches 527 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. This indicates that scenario C is approaching.

We remind you that until now the epidemiological situation in Lithuania was the closest to scenario D, when the new cases exceed 500 cases per 100,000. population in 14 days. Scenario C is introduced when the number of new cases is 100,000. the population exceeds 100 cases in 14 days.

With Lithuania’s transition to Scenario C, basic, secondary, primary, preschool and preschool education would not be carried out remotely, but directly, through periodic tests of teachers and students. At the local level, the possibility of stricter restrictions would also be left, depending on the epidemiological situation. Unrestricted communication could also take place between the two households.

Residents could expect a broader range of planned medical services, while allowing normal trade beyond food, optics or veterinary products, limiting customer flows at points of sale and applying special service requirements for reduce the risk of infection.

Prof. R. Kalėdienė emphasized that scenario C means that the number of cases is 100 thousand. the population in 14 days ranged from 100 to 500 cases. However, this, according to the professor, does not really mean that with 500 or 499 boxes per day tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, it will be possible to clearly move to scenario C and allow store operations and other releases.

“It just came to our knowledge then. In the scenarios, we have recorded that layoffs are possible through effective employee testing. That is, until testing methodologies are implemented, it is very dangerous to open educational institutions and expand business. Yes a test algorithm were implemented, we could more quickly identify possible emerging foci.

The provision of rapid tests is very relevant. From what we’ve heard, a sufficient number of rapid tests should arrive by mid-February. A sufficient number of tests is also relative, as there are many sectors that need to be tested. Testing in educational institutions is especially important as they have a very high risk of spreading the virus. Whether we open primary education or loosen restrictions on graduates, contacts in educational institutions represent a risk of transmitting the virus to families, ”explained prof. R. Christmas.

Release fuses

On Monday, the Health Minister and the Interior Minister spoke that in the near future, as the epidemiological situation improves, the education and business sectors could expect some releases from the quarantine regime. At the same time, the liberalization of movement between municipalities is being considered.

Professor R. Kalėdienė emphasized that when thinking about releases, it is necessary to think only about clearly implemented test methodologies. At the same time, he said, it is dangerous to stick to a particular date or simply the number of new cases.

“We need to relate to the epidemiological situation and also to the frequency of vaccination. The third thing that is very important is the frequency of testing. These are three very important aspects that are related to when we can begin to live more freely ”, explained the professor.

Professor Aurelija Žvirblienė from the Vilnius University (VU) Life Sciences Center emphasized that the number of hospitalized patients is a very important indicator in anticipation of the easing of the quarantine regime.

“Now the number of hospitalized patients is decreasing proportionally and the number of patients treated in resuscitation is decreasing. Consequently, the general trend is reflected,” he said.

Releases are hampered by new varieties

Delfi.lt the teachers interviewed did not rule out that the new varieties of COVID-19 that were prevalent abroad also encouraged unplanned sudden releases.

“This problem is currently being actively addressed and it is anticipated that much more sequencing investigations will be carried out in the near future. This would help to identify new mutations. At present, no new mutations have been identified in Lithuania, but it would be too bold to say that they don’t exist ”, said Prof. R. Christmas.

Professor A. Žvirblienė from Vilnius University also highlighted the factor of new varieties.

“Many countries point to a strong risk of new variants of the virus. These restrictions help us a lot in that if we have those mutations, the risk of carrying them is reduced because of those restrictions. That would be the reason why there should not be much rush with releases.

Regardless of the numbers, we must take into account the risk of new variants of the virus, and this is no longer a problem just for the UK, as those variants are already prevalent in dozens of countries, not just each other. Even if we ban flights, there are other options for people to cross the border. This is a difficult subject, “he explained.