He spoke on the blackest stage after Kim Jong Un’s death: a civil war in the country could involve all the neighbors

Therefore, as published by nationalinterest.org, all attention is directed to Kim Jo Jong, the sister of Kim Jong One, who is considered the logical successor, as expected, to ensure a smooth transfer of power.

However, such a sequence of events will not necessarily come true, explains Malcolm Davis, a senior expert at the Australian Institute for Strategic Policy, in the publication.

Much will depend on how the various groups focused on the current leader will respond to the rise of Kim Yo Jong, and whether this opportunity will be seized to bring down the Kim dynasty entirely by taking advantage of the death of Kim Jong Uno.

In that case, the worst case scenario, as predicted by the American political scientist Van Jackson, would be a dangerous struggle for power in North Korea between the United States and China, which could even turn into a military conflict. The expert points out that the likelihood of internal unrest, including civil war, in North Korea must raise the issue of North Korea’s nuclear safety.

If the current civil system collapses, US forces in South Korea and the South Korean army itself could be forced to cross the demilitarized zone and move north to ensure the safety of nuclear weapons. But the movement of US forces northward could also provoke a response from Beijing.

At the same time, however, China could move south to stabilize internal unrest and prevent the influx of people from North Korea, potentially infected with the coronavirus, to China. The question then becomes, how would US and South Korean forces react to the Chinese military’s approach to the 38th parallel?

The key question in this case would be whether the situation on the Korean peninsula does not become a strategic vacuum. Possible developments there, and the United States’ response to them, will be closely monitored and evaluated by Beijing in the broader context of the strategic rivalry between the United States and China. China already appears committed to exploiting the US vulnerability. USA To COVID-19, so any concerns in North Korea could significantly increase the risk of a larger-scale conflict.

However, the Chinese military is actively trying to cross the United States and beyond the Korean peninsula. It recently sank a Vietnamese fishing vessel and pointed its fire control radar at a Philippine naval vessel in the South China Sea. The fleets of the United States, Australia and China operate closely together in disputed territories, and any collision could quickly turn into a full-scale conflict.

Peter Jennings, an expert at the Australian Institute for Strategic Policy, noted that China’s resolve is growing as declining US military preparedness for the coronavirus pandemic. He noted China’s increasing aggression towards Taiwan and the possibility that Beijing may impose a military blockade because it feels the United States is paying more attention to internal affairs and may not be able to respond.

Rapid destabilization on the Korean peninsula may increase this risk. Given the instability in North Korea and the risk of conflict in the South China Sea, Beijing may decide that now is the time to act decisively. Such reflections would also be influenced by China’s growing A2AD capabilities, which have recently forced the United States to suspend its bomber deployment to Guam for the first time in 16 years.

Such a scenario as described above would certainly be one of the worst, but it does not mean that it is inevitable. The lack of a clear acquisition process in North Korea in the event of Kim Jong Un’s death increases the risk that such a scenario will materialize and have consequences that will not only affect the country. Just like the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo in 1914, the death of Kim Jong Uno could cause a great fire that would engulf the entire world.

The United States says it is not aware of Kim Jong Un’s whereabouts

The United States is speculating on the whereabouts of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, Reuters reports.

“We have not seen it. We do not have information today, we are watching it closely,” US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News on Wednesday. He added that there is a real danger of famine in North Korea. It is said that the USA USA They are following these things closely as they affect the goal of denuclearizing North Korea. The President of the United States, Donald Trump, met Kim Jong Unu a total of three times in 2018 and 2019 to convince him to abandon his nuclear program.

North Korea does not comment on speculation about Kim Jong Un’s health. On April 15, he did not unexpectedly attend a traditional event dedicated to the birthday of his grandfather, North Korean founder Kim Il Sung, who died in 1994. North Korean media has not announced his whereabouts since April 11, when Kim Jong Un led a meeting.

Several sources recently told Reuters that China had sent a delegation of government and medical officials to the neighboring country. China also does not comment on the state of health or the whereabouts of the North Korean leader.

The world is guessing what happened to Kim

There are still two clear things about North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un: that he underwent surgery and disappeared from public view. Everything else is rumor. The entire world is turning its attention to another important date, August 15, to mark the 75th anniversary of the liberation of Korea. The question arises as to whether for that moment or that day the leader will appear in public.

Several rumors about the health of the North Korean leader began to spread after he did not attend the birthday celebration of his grandfather and founder of the regime, Kim Il Sung, on April 15, BNS wrote.