He drew a map of international tensions: China, Russia and Belarus remain in the spotlight

Delfi.lt The interlocutors unanimously agreed that we can also look forward to a new stage in relations between the United States and the European Union (EU) in the new year. Meanwhile, in response to the hottest foreign policy issues of the coming year, it would be worthwhile for Lithuania to clearly define national interests and strengthen its positions within the EU and NATO.

US and EU: Heralds a renaissance, but demands measured expectations

“There are two political processes that will have an inevitable impact on Lithuanian, EU and world politics. This is the coming to power of the new US president and his policies, and the second is the probable end of the political era of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel. These political processes will be extremely important to us, both as EU members and NATO members. The coming year is often called the year of hope or even the year of rebirth between the United States and Europe. considering the ever-changing White House host Joe Biden, a NATO lawyer who appreciates the global role of Europe and Germany in particular, ”said the former Foreign Minister. Ambassador, Avia Solutions Group Board Member Vygaudas Ušackas.

It was also supported by the Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, who will take office in January, and the Head of the European Commission (EC) Representation in Lithuania in 2016-2020. Arnoldas Pranckevičius. He assured that “the new US administration is really encouraging, and EU leaders have high hopes of working with the Biden administration and hope that this will give new impetus to transatlantic relations.”

However, V. Ušackas pointed out that hopes must be measured, because tensions are and will be raised by Russia and China. And in the case of Russia, a position of principle is crucial, openly acknowledging the problems that do not strengthen the unity of the EU.

“There are still differences due to the use of technology in 5G mobile networks. In the case of Russia, the EU regime is generally seen as both a threat and a challenge, so Germany’s increased support for the development of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline remains one of the biggest points of disagreement, “said V. Ušackas.

The United States, Poland and the Baltic countries oppose the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which would supply Russian gas directly to Germany, saying the pipeline poses a threat to NATO allies and increases dependence on Russia.

Audronius Ažubalis, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Vice President of the European Affairs Commission of the Seimas and member of the Foreign Affairs Commission, took a similar position.

“Neither China nor Russia will disappear in the near future. I hope that Mr. Biden will continue to apply a strict policy towards China in order to prevent China from influencing and intimidating neighboring countries. I believe that the trade sanctions that have been agreed and have been agreed they will not be lifted. I would like to see the continuation of a sufficiently intransigent US policy towards Russia. Europe should be more sincere in its relations with China that it does not put the economic interests of individual countries first, but sees China with eyes open.

Lithuania must be bright, specific and not be afraid to talk about what does not strengthen the EU, taking into account the same “Nord Stream 2. What weakens Europe as a whole, but is good for some countries, such as Germany, should not be ignored “, – spoke A. Azubalis.

Mr Pranckevičius pointed out that in recent years there has been growing coordination and consensus within the EU on Russia and China. “This year we have seen how Russia and China have used disinformation and cyber warfare very aggressively. All of this will encourage the United States and Europe to work much more closely to uphold the core values ​​of democracy and strengthen human rights.

The EU’s common foreign policy is based on consensus. Naturally, the Member States have different positions, they have different historical experiences with Russia, China, the United States. As a result, the EU is seeking consensus and trying to maintain it. There are more common positions than disagreements. For the most part, the EU countries agree and act in unison, “he said.

According to A. Pranckevičius, we have recently seen much greater coordination of the EU’s position towards China. For the first time, the EU has adopted a very clear strategy, naming China not only as an economic partner but also as a systemic opponent.

Belarus will remain the center of attention

Delfi.lt The interlocutors unanimously agreed that the situation and events in Belarus would remain a hot and distracting point on the map of Europe. A. Azubalis emphasized that when it comes to Belarus, no one can help this country more than the Belarusians themselves. And Lithuania is doing what it can with its existing capabilities.

“It is unclear how much the situation will heat up and how much the temperature will drop, but Belarus will remain a red dot. Even if free and democratic elections are held, Lithuania will have to continue its policy of political support. If the situation worsens, Aliaksandr Lukashenko remains comes to power or a new Russian builder comes to power under the guise of democratic elections, it will be necessary to continue with international politics that will allow the sanctions regime to continue. Sector sanctions must also be discussed. You can never sit in two chairs: if you try press with sanctions and at the same time develop your business, then the question arises whether you are sincerely pressing that finger, “said the politician.

V. Ušackas and A. Pranckevičius also agreed that the situation will depend mainly on Belarusian society. “It will depend on the people of Belarus much more than on us or the EU and the United States. The future of a state depends on the processes within it. It is very difficult to predict what will happen next year, but the people of Belarus have discovered a national identity and a desire for democracy and has set an example to the whole of Europe of how to fight peacefully for human rights. I hope that the focus on Belarus only increases and the lesson is learned in the EU itself, where there is sometimes a risk for the rule of law and human rights, “said future Deputy Foreign Minister A. Pranckevičius.

For Taiwan, the situation will not be dramatic

Although the question of Taiwan’s independence has recently been heard in the rhetoric of Lithuanian and foreign politicians, the Freedom Party, which belongs to the ruling majority before the Seimas elections, has spoken in favor of the independence of Taiwan We remind you that many countries in the world, including Lithuania, do not recognize the independence of Taiwan and follow the “one China” policy. And China itself is outraged by all states that provide diplomatic support to Taiwan.

A. Pranckevičius pointed out that currently tensions in the international arena are unlikely, which could intensify the confrontation by the world’s major players. “The position of the EU is the one-China policy. However, the different members of the EU have limited economic relations and at the same time cultural ties with Taiwan. It is not a full recognition, but it is a communication with people. and companies that is active enough in Europe, ”he commented on the Taiwan issue.

According to V. Ušackas, the history of Lithuania is based on the recognition of freedom. Therefore, Lithuania supports the countries that are now fighting for freedom. Both the United States and the EU follow the principle of a unified Chinese policy, that is, it recognizes the theoretical integrity of China, maintaining economic and trade relations with various regions. In this place, Lithuania should remain consistent both with our state policy and with the common positions of the EU and the US, ”explained the former Foreign Minister.

According to A. Azubalis, the way for Lithuania to develop a balanced policy towards Taiwan should be to establish economic and cultural representations in Taiwan.

“Most of the EU countries have established cultural and commercial representations in Taiwan and are doing an excellent job. We have not been able to do that for many years. There are those who say that it would be more worthwhile to establish representative offices in South Korea. Establishing a diplomatic mission in South Korea is much safer and easier than establishing a cultural or economic mission in Taiwan, which would also put some pressure on China, but that would be a certain policy and it would be visible. On the other hand, Taiwan should not being discarded as an economic partner, it is a modern, powerful and developed state, “he said.

Vibrant places within the EU

“The beginning of next year will be marked by the exit from the pandemic, a successful vaccination strategy that has already begun. At the same time, the focus will be on the recovery of the EU economy. The two most important tasks for the EU at the beginning of next year are the successful management of the pandemic and the recovery of the Union. However, these are undoubtedly conditioned by various global factors that cannot be predicted today.

The coming year for the EU is a year of opportunities, encompassing opportunities to strengthen its global, social, energy, climate change and digital resilience. This year, we have seen that the EU is highly dependent on global supply chains and is very vulnerable. This was especially evident in March and April. It is essential to strengthen the resilience of the EU and ensure the production of strategically important products. Investments in the economy of the future are important “, assured A. Pranckevičius.

In this case, in such circumstances, according to V. Ušackas, it is very important for Lithuania to define its national interests and understand what we can and cannot change.

“Lithuania’s most important national interest is security and human well-being. Forming coalitions and expanding our influence within the EU, maintaining and strengthening NATO and the US. In the Baltic region are very important tasks. A policy Balanced towards China is essential, as China is a threat and a challenge. Russia and Belarus are also important eastern strengths. It is worth maintaining the position of principle here, but at the same time being open to dialogue and maintaining bridges of cooperation “, said V. Ušackas to the tasks for the new year.