Grim Expert Scenario For Lukashenko: After Protests End, Troubles Will Only Begin

Lukashenko’s regime will have the unenviable task of dealing with three crises simultaneously: political unrest (isolation in the international arena and mounting pressure from the Kremlin), chronic economic upheavals, and an unmanageable COVID-19 pandemic.

The regime has managed to set its feet in such a way that it has lost perhaps the most important trick it has had so far: a bluff on the supposed rapprochement with the West, to break the Kremlin’s concessions. Before the elections, there was talk of a possible reception of a new United States ambassador in the country. Now it will only be possible to dream about that.

The pressure will only increase

Andrius Prochorenko, an analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies and a political scientist for the former Eastern Bloc, believes that Lukashenko is likely to keep his post, at least in the near future, but there is little doubt that the regime will face new challenges. According to him, strikes by factory workers caused considerable headaches to the entire system, but their power had already diminished. “The outlook was, but this outlook was more pronounced in the first week, as recently there has been more and more pressure and support for Lukashenko himself in certain separate regions of Belarus.” The expert said, “during the past week We can see that the protests and actions to overthrow Lukashenko have weakened a bit, and we can see that the coping methodology itself has changed a bit, as we have seen recently from both OMON and other specialists units, perhaps even from the Russia itself at the moment, which is very specialized in trying to quell these protests, perhaps not so much using force against the whole mass, but we can see some specialized action in regions that are currently less obedient to the regime itself. “

Weakened and deprived of support both at home and abroad, Lukashenko could become an easy mouthful for the Kremlin, which won’t even have to send in its tanks and humans to make Belarus its own. de facto colony or informal gubernia. “One of the most important factors here from Russia’s point of view is taking advantage of this situation. We know that even before the protests, there was some conflict between Russia and Belarus, especially regarding the import of oil and other energy sources. At present, if sanctions were imposed on Belarus from both Lithuania and possibly the European Union, although this has yet to be widely discussed, this would make Belarus even more dependent on Russia and perhaps overshadow earlier conflicts over Belarus a bit. “Oil imports and other energy sources, because in practice Belarus would have no other alternatives,” said A. Prochorenko.

It also had the support of Maxim Milta, director of communication of the European University of Humanities. “At the moment, we see that the Belarusian state has about 70 percent. The debts belong to Russia. And in those debates when it comes to whether it is worth it for the Kremlin to take military action to defend its interests, I think first you need to look at the figures. Russia already controls practically all sectors of Belarus. The only possible potential competitor for Belarus here is China, but its role here is still incomparable with Russia, “Milta said.

It seems that, at least in the near future, the regime could maintain power. However, if the short-term outlook looks bleak enough, real problems will arise if Lukashenko continues on the same trajectory as before.

Especially if Belarus itself announces sanctions against Lithuania and rejects Klaipeda’s port services. The port of Klaipeda was mainly used for the import and export of oil to Belarus, so if this alternative no longer exists, Belarus will no longer have other alternative levers to negotiate with Russia. It will remain the only option and in this way Russia will further strengthen its influence, “Prochorenko told Delfi.

Lukashenko could maintain power by proposing a compromise to the protesters: “calm down and I promise you reforms in the economy or politics.” “Lukashenko can hold onto his position, not only in terms of an economy that is currently in a tragic state compared to other countries, especially in the West, but also by promising certain reforms.” These could be perhaps constitutional reforms, some electoral reforms that could possibly be carried out in the next elections. However, there is no guarantee that it will carry out these reforms. But it is a way that can allow him to stay in power and appease those protests, “said the political scientist.

Intentional bankruptcy

The economic clouds over Minsk were well clouded even before the political crisis. In a dispute over a union state integration with Russia, the Kremlin cut oil price subsidies last year and raised them to market levels. Such a move in itself meant a huge loss of income and shook the very foundations of the regime.

For a long time, Lukashenko’s social contract with ordinary Belarusians was quite simple: if you don’t make waves of power grab and human rights, you’ll get a job and stable, albeit extremely poor, income and pensions. The question arises as to how long such a model can be maintained without generous subsidies. It is also worth remembering the many protests against the “unemployment rate” that took place a few years ago. The tax increase for the most vulnerable has not really been invented from a good life and the chronic problems of the Belarusian economy have not disappeared.

“If we compare the economic indicators of Lithuania and Belarus, then Lithuania, which is more than 3 times smaller than Belarus both in terms of population and area, is often the indicators of Lithuania, even without considering per capita, and the absolute numbers are even higher than in Belarus. We can say that the standard of living in Lithuania is almost 3 times higher than in Belarus. And this is the clearest answer to the question of what price Belarusians pay for the lack of reforms, “said Milta.

The political scientist emphasized the uniqueness of Belarus even in comparison with other post-Soviet countries. Belarus is the only country that has yet to become a member of the World Trade Organization, so there is essentially no arbitration or set rules in trade with this country. Generally speaking, in the case of a trade dispute between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, the parties could follow the WTO rules and resolve the disputes through arbitration according to international norms and precedents, and Minsk would have to argue alone. This means that, in the event of a dispute with Moscow, Lukashenko will not have any international intercession or the opportunity to present claims.

Another distinctive feature of Belarus is that there was no privatization in the country after the fall of communism. “Unlike other post-Soviet countries, there has been neither privatization nor decentralization in Belarus, which affects both economic and state models. If we talk about the size of the private sector in the Belarusian economy, it is currently around 30%, which is small, although that number has increased. There are about 32-33 percent. And since economic planning in Blatarus is carried out in five years, as in the Soviet era, according to the plan approved by the government, 40% should have already been reached. indicator, ”said Mr. Milta.

Furthermore, factories that produce tractors, tractors and other machinery for export do not follow the productivity criteria, but act as recruitment agencies to keep as many low-wage workers as possible.

“The only branch of the Belarusian economy that has developed over the last decade and a half and which has become profitable and adds value is the information technology sector, which is often associated with a high-tech park in Minsk. . This park is not a physical place, it is a special tax regime, a kind of free economic zone. It is not necessary to be physically in it to be able to operate with extremely low tax rates. Therefore, in Minsk alone, there are about 110 thousand. People who are employed in IT companies, ”said the political scientist. However, it is not clear how successful this IT sector will be in operating on a constantly disconnected Internet.

And one thing is clear: if Lukashenko is going to celebrate his victory, it is too early to do so.