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The place you are going requires a negative COVID-19 test no earlier than 72 hours prior to arrival. You get the result. Positive! Holidays disappear, little hope, and to get your money back, you must be self-employed for 10 days or receive a solid fine.
Such a scenario would be extremely bleak for anyone. And imagine that you don’t even have the virus and that the “positive” test response is just a false positive?
History of the Aegean Sea
The scenario described in The Telegraph is fictional, but also surprisingly plausible. Hundreds of passengers from the FDI’s Mein Schiff 6 cruise ship, the first to depart after quarantine, crashed this week after multiple crew members tested positive for COVID-19. The captain stopped the trip, ordered all passengers to isolate themselves in their cabins, and the ship sailed from the Greek island of Milos.
Twelve crew members, none of whom had symptoms, were reexamined. Note that all the new tests were negative. The IDF conducted PCR tests itself and Greek officials performed fast virus antigens.
This is not the only case in the cruise industry. Last month, a SeaDream passenger who did not experience any typical symptoms was examined in Denmark and found to be infected with COVID-19. After retesting, the result was already negative. A similar story happened on the UnCruise ship.
This doesn’t just happen on cruise ships. Last month, 77 NFL players and team personnel received positive tests for COVID-19. It turned out that they were false positives.
After going around the world Stories of the Diamond Princess, the focal point of COVID-19, cruise ships are viewed with great suspicion. That’s why companies rely on tests to show that swimming is safe. US officials announced last week that if cruise companies want to resume operations, they will have to accept a mandatory test before boarding.
Testing is becoming mandatory not just on cruise ships. Countries like Barbados or Antigua also require negative tests before admitting travelers. What if the problems facing FDI and SeaDream are getting less and less rare? Will additional tests also be carried out on ordinary travelers or only on crew members? How many false positives could ruin a trip?
The problem of a false positive result
Little is said yet about the possibility that a positive result is wrong, but the debate is already beginning to emerge. When asked about the problem, UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock shook his hand and said that less than 1 per cent of false positives are positive. results. However, it does not seem to have estimated that the percentage is not only positive, but of all the results obtained.
The tests seem to be important when trying to return to “normal” life.
To make it simpler, let’s take an example. For example, 0.5 percent are false positives. results. It is now estimated that one in 500 people in England is infected (ie 0.2% of the population). This means that if the tests were done on a thousand people (say, on a cruise ship leaving England), 2 people would likely be identified who were actually infected and 5 would get false positive results. In other words, 71 percent. The “positive” results would be really bad. When the situation is viewed this way, it is clear that the problem with the requirement of evidence on behalf of a travel permit is obvious.
Lithuania has already spoken about the problem of reliability and counterfeiting.
The problem of vacations is discussed, but it is far from relevant to them. The tests seem to be important when trying to return to “normal” life. The UK has spoken of an ambitious plan to test 10 million British, would cost around 100 billion. pound sterling.
The Telegraph suggests that the solution could be to force countries and cruise companies that require testing to guarantee and retry if the first proves positive.
It is also said in Lithuania that tests cannot always be trusted. On Wednesday, the government lifted the requirement for foreigners, arriving in Lithuania from the countries most affected by COVID-19, have a negative coronavirus test performed no earlier than 72 hours before their arrival in the country.
Photo by Žygimantas Gedvila / 15min / Rita Tamašunienė
As the Minister of the Interior, Rita Tamašunienė, explained, the proposal to revoke the aforementioned requirement is presented because in practice there is a problem of reliability and falsification of these tests, so the effectiveness of the application of this requirement raises questions.
The aviation business gets in the way of testing
Meanwhile, both the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and the International Airports Council (ACI Europe) are calling for the development and implementation of a rapid, accurate and consistent COVID-19 testing procedure for all departing passengers.
A press release issued said it could replace self-isolation on arrival and save from ever-changing state constraints, helping to rebuild the aviation and tourism markets much faster.
Global aviation still faces increasingly imposed and changing travel restrictions. The latter complicates the planning process for travelers: traveling becomes a real challenge.
“Our proposal is a systematic screening of all travelers for the COVID-19 virus before moving to another country. We believe this will benefit both governments by minimizing the risks of opening borders and travelers who deserve to enjoy their travels. with confidence “This model will get a lot of people back to work,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA Director General.
IATA and other international transport organizations call for the development of a research process that meets the criteria of speed, precision, cost and ease of use and is based on international standards agreed by the government.
However, Mr. Juniac recognized that integrating research into the travel process would pose many practical challenges, but said that efforts by international organizations could lead governments to adhere to a single global standard.
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