G. Nausėda wants to talk to the President of Turkey about migrants: what to offer him?

“I am ready to speak to Turkish leader Erdogan myself, but for that I also need some negotiating arguments, which I hope to have soon,” interview Wednesday. 15 minutes declared G.Nausėda.

The Lithuanian president emphasized that without negotiating arguments, the outcome of the discussions “may be disappointing”, although he still does not want to speak further about these arguments.

What are Vilnius’s levers to talk to RTErdogan and try to convince him that Turkey would only win if the migration crisis on the Lithuanian-Belarusian border were extinguished? 15 minutes asked that question to analysts and Seimas member Laurynas Kasčiūnas.

For Turkey, the issue is not of the utmost importance.

Linas Kojala, Director of the Center for Eastern European Studies (RESC) 15 minutes He argued that perhaps visa liberalization could be considered, and probably in the broader EU context.

“It is possible to remember what levers the EU had during the great crisis of 2015-2016: both finances and the prospect of EU membership. Lithuania cannot offer such things to Turkey: there is no mandate and no political power, especially without consensus. of the EU.

But the contact points can be found in smaller areas: I’m talking about visas, cooperation on security. Let’s not forget that Turkey is an ally of Lithuania. It belongs to NATO, ”said the political scientist.

Clearly, it can be said that Turkey is a country from whose behavior even migrants have learned the Aliaksandr Lukashenko regime in Belarus, using geopolitical blackmail as a tool. RTErdogan has repeatedly threatened to “open the door” to Europe for migrants, millions of whom live in camps in Turkey.

“It is clear that migratory tensions between the EU and Turkey continue. But at the same time, we must acknowledge that Turkey has played an important role in managing the crisis and protecting Europe from huge migrant flows.

Despite all those threats that the deal could be terminated, Turkey is complying with it. Without Turkey, the situation in the EU in terms of migration would be much more complicated, ”commented L. Kojala.

RTErdogan has repeatedly threatened to “open the door” to Europe for migrants, millions of whom live in camps in Turkey.

According to the analyst, G. Nausėda should endeavor to present his arguments as the position of the entire community, to make it clear that actions are being coordinated and coordinated.

“It would be much more difficult to talk with Iraq and Turkey if the issue were purely bilateral. The issue is not bilateral: the EU supports Lithuania’s position. I think that would be clearly reflected,” said the head of the RESC.

According to L. Kojala, it would be useful for Vilnius to think about the package – not creating a separate topic, “new problems” – that efforts should be made to form a joint debate on how the EU and Turkey should continue cooperation on migration management. .

“If Lithuania could become a state that could start a debate on the need to implement the EU’s commitments to Turkey, the dialogue would be beneficial to both parties. There simply has to be proportionality.

It should be understood that this issue is not large-scale for Turkey, it does not require fundamental changes in the country’s foreign policy at the strategic level. We are talking about specific things that can be done, ”said L. Kojala.

Space for bilateral diplomacy

L.Kasčiūnas, in turn, appreciates G.Nausėda’s desire to speak with RTErdogan: “It’s a very good idea, really. Talk to a leader with whom bilateral negotiations are the best way to go. “

What can Lithuania offer to Turkey? Concessions or silence during any voting, like NATO? L. Kasčiūnas, chairman of the Seimas Defense and National Security Committee, rejects such deliberations.

“There are certain purchases, acquisitions in the defense field, as an option. After all, we always talk to the big guys who have their own defense industry.” 15 minutes said a member of the Seimas.

“If we are ready, I think he (RTErdogan, ed.) Will definitely listen to us. Bilateral diplomacy has space and opportunities here,” added L. Kasčiūnas.

Slide Policy

Meanwhile, Professor Gintautas Mažeikis, Director of the Department of Philosophy and Social Criticism at Vytautas Magnus University, 15 minutes He recalled that “RTErdogan’s regime is little different from that of Azerbaijan, Russia or Belarus.”

“It is an autocratic state, and any relationship with it can only be based on it royal politics and pragmatism. Somehow we are interfering with morality because, above all, we are in the national interest.

Such a policy, which oscillates between self-interest and morality, is quite slippery. But in this case, it is inevitable to know in what kind of world we live ”, considered G. Mažeikis.

The professor agrees that G. Nausėda, before embarking on negotiations with the President of Turkey, should prepare specific arguments that would be a strong enough trump card. But he doubts that Lithuania has them.

“Lithuania does not have a strong trump card. We will not be of interest to tourists or the exclusive economy. The only thing is that our country in the EU votes on one issue or another and we play a lobbying role. This type of lobbying. it would be interesting for Turkey, “said G. Mažeikis.

G.Mažeikis: Such a policy, when it fluctuates between interest and morality, is quite slippery and subtle. But in this case, it is inevitable to know what kind of world we live in.

He also noted that Turkey is deeply interested in a kind of intrigue to pressure Russia. Ankara is said to be attacking Moscow and befriending it; bilateral relations are highly controversial.

“But Turkey is also inclined to manipulate the Ukrainian issue. Considering that Lithuania is involved in Ukrainian affairs, there are also certain points of contact here, – said the philosopher. – The arguments are weak, but they are diplomatic and must introduce oneself royal politics contexts. But they must be interesting.

I do not know if President Nausėda will be able to maneuver on this issue. However, a direct dialogue with Turkey is very important, although, for example, it is better to pressure Iraq through European diplomacy. “

G. Mažeikis stated that a pragmatic policy rather than “heroic rhetoric” would help Lithuania to cope with the migration crisis: “But we belong to the EU and to the West, for which moral values ​​are important.”

“If we lower morality, all these pragmatic ties will collapse and we will face a very big migration crisis. Lukashenko has no other way to manipulate than that. royal politics.

Lukashenko’s administration uses the blackest technology and can afford to negotiate with anyone on any issue just to avoid harming his older brother, the Kremlin. Therefore, it is easy to manipulate, “said G. Mažeikis.

“Moral and democratic values ​​are very important to us. Therefore, it is important to maintain a balance between pragmatism and values.

If we move away from democracy, we will lose the support of the EU and the US, and if we abandon pragmatism, we will increase several crises in Lithuania. There is already a question of diplomatic dominance and a question of presidential dominance, of which I am not entirely sure, ”added the expert.