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Donatas Burneika, professor of Geography, and Romas Lazutka, sociologist, agree that the high rate of aging of the population in Lithuania has long been determined by the increase in migration of the country’s young population. However, experts believe that society will not age so quickly.
“It is clear from the day that this was mainly due to migration, as most young people are leaving, so the country automatically becomes older. As a result, society is aging faster than in countries where aging occurs simply due to natural population change, mortality, birth rates, and the like.
Our migration rates have been among the highest, especially in previous years, but now the society appears to be so recent recently. As for the migration indicators of recent years, the trend will no longer be the same. I don’t think we are going to become a young society, it is unlikely that it will be, but rapid aging is at least a thing of the past, ”D. Burneika told Eltai.
Meanwhile, according to the professor, the large percentage gap between wages and productivity growth indicates that more of GDP should be spent on people and less on capital and profits.
(These indicators – ELTA) show that, in principle, wages are increasing at the expense of rising prices. We all pay more for products and services. Of course, in the future, we will only be competitive in the world if we move to automated and robotic work as in other countries. The more value the capital creates, the more people can get paid. But in fact (…) I would like higher productivity growth, it is not good that it is growing so slowly compared to the growth of wages. (…) In this case, if productivity growth is small and wages high, we should spend more of our GDP on people and less and less on capital or profits. It seems to me that this is not happening much, so perhaps productivity growth is more difficult to measure, ”said D. Burneika.
I. Photo by Juodytė / Fotobank
Speaking of the reasons that led to the aging of Lithuanian society, Professor R. Lazutka pointed out that this phenomenon was mainly influenced by the low birth and death rates recorded in previous periods and the migration of the young population.
“One of the factors of (society aging – ELTA) is that people are living longer. The second is that there is a low birth rate, but this is not the case in Lithuania at the moment. However, the main factor that The contributing factor is emigration, as younger people of working age have left and fewer retired people have left, leading to an increase in the proportion of retirees. However, it is already the second year that the immigration rate in Lithuania is positive. (…) Aging should slow down, because there are few young people who will reach old age due to emigration, so there should also be relatively fewer elderly people in Lithuania in the future, ”said the professor.
I don’t think we will become a young society, that is unlikely to be the case, but rapid aging is at least a thing of the past, at least for now.
R. Lazutka also stated that wages and productivity should grow together, but the difference between these indicators should not be surprising in Lithuania, because wages in the country have been unreasonably low for a long time.
“The classical theory is that wages and productivity must grow together because wages are paid for productivity. Therefore, those sizes cannot protrude, there may be some fluctuations, but they cannot protrude for long. (…) And in Lithuania this happened because the salary was unreasonably low. Productivity was not as low as wages. And now we could say that the spring has stretched.
If we compare the level of development of the Lithuanian economy and the EU average, then the Lithuanian economy accounts for 80%. The EU average and wages in Lithuania are three, two times lower than in other countries whose economies are equal to the EU average. So wages were unreasonably low, “said the professor.
R. Lazutka assured that it cannot be said that productivity in Lithuania is low, because the GDP, which partly reflects the country’s productivity, is equivalent to 80 percent. EU average.
“For a long time, wage growth has been slower than productivity. After the last crisis in 2009, when the economy recovered, productivity started to grow and wages were practically frozen for a long time, and that’s why now they have exploded, ”said R. Lazutka.
The labor supply is insufficient in some areas
Speaking of the demand and supply of labor in Lithuania, D. Burneika stated that in some areas the necessary manpower is still lacking due to rapid changes in the labor market and an imperfect vocational training system.
“The demand for labor in certain areas is unsatisfactory, there is a shortage of skilled workers. It may be that our job and vocational training system is not perfect, perhaps the jobs created are not very attractive to the Lithuanian population, for example they are poorly paid. It is clear that the changes in the labor market are great, especially in our post-Soviet countries, so of course, if some sectors, such as the information technology sector, grow rapidly, there may be a shortage of (labor force – ELTA ) ”, He told Eltai.
However, the professor pointed out that the education indicators of employees in Lithuania are really good.
“If we look at the educational indicators of the workforce, they are definitely one of the best in Lithuania. If we look at how many Lithuanians have jobs that require higher education, this is not a particularly bad situation. …
I think the problem is probably related to the workforce itself, its motivation, the desire to change and lifelong learning, to improve.
Studies show that it is better to work and have a useful life, and those with a universal education receive the highest wages. It is worth studying in principle, and not (pays – ELTA) a specialized and limited job, which is sometimes required by our employers ”, said D. Burneika.
According to the professor, one of the common challenges faced by people of working age who have already completed their training is the lack of motivation to adapt to a changing job market.
“I think the problem is probably related to the workforce itself, its motivation, the desire to change and lifelong learning, to improve. (…) Without a doubt, one of the big problems in Lithuania is that the surplus of our workforce is felt especially in the older age groups, and especially in the regions. It is not the workforce that is most likely to change, that is likely to acquire new skills. If the pension is close, we will hardly invest so much in ourselves that we will work another year. This is a problem, probably the inability of the State to motivate and provide services to these people, the elderly, to include them in the labor market ”, said D. Burneika.
Meanwhile, R. Lazutka stated that although there are several lifelong learning programs in Lithuania, there is a lack of data on whether these programs work.
“The EU recognizes that there are many changes, that people need to be educated, that it is not enough to finish the university for life, what kind of vocational school, lifelong learning is needed. Lithuania lags behind in terms of the number of people participating in lifelong learning. (…) There is also a great lack of effectiveness of the trainings that are being carried out in Lithuania. There is no research, there is no publicly available information about the fate of those people (who have joined such programs – ELTA) ”, said the professor.
According to the Department of Statistics, over the past decade, real wages in Lithuania have increased by 54%, while productivity growth has reached only 25%.
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