Flu retired: just silence before the storm? These viruses can come back with significant changes

Specialists say that it is obvious that this year we will not have the peak incidence of influenza in Lithuania, as we are used to seeing until now, nor the pandemic situation. However, according to them, there is no need to relax: it is quite realistic that the flu will return with renewed vigor in the coming seasons, and this decline may have been caused not only by protection measures and vaccines against COVID-19, but also every 10-15 years. regular fluctuations occur.

Why the incidence of influenza has changed so much, what causes it and what situation to expect in the future was discussed in one of the “Choose a Life” series of talks.

Incidence was reduced six times

According to the head of the NVSC Communicable Disease Management Division. The specialist Greta Gargasienė registered a total of around 1,500 cases of influenza in Lithuania in the second half of January last year, and this year the number was six times lower and reached 250 at the same time.

“The flu has not really gone anywhere, we only register it significantly less than in previous seasons. This is not only in Lithuania, but also in the whole of Europe.” All European countries register much fewer cases of influenza and other acute infections of the upper respiratory tract, “said the interlocutor.

Typically, flu season in Europe begins at 40 a year and ends the next 20 weeks.

“It really happens at the end of September and next May. Now that season is, let’s say, in the middle. If we look at the whole historical period, the peak in Lithuania is usually registered in January and February, but this year, due to the morbidity record really low, we probably don’t have an epidemic level or peak, as we are used to the season, ”said G. Gargasienė.

He listed the reasons that could have led to such changes.

Infectologist, Doctor of Medical Sciences prof. Vytautas Usonis says that one of the reasons for such a significant decrease in the incidence of influenza is undoubtedly due to the protective measures applied by COVID-19.

“The epidemiology of both diseases, both influenza and SARS-Cov-2, is similar, and both are spread by droplets in the air when a person infected with exhaled air exhales virus. Measures taken by various countries for prevention of COVID-19 are also perfect for the prevention of influenza, both isolation and masks, etc. “, says the professor.

In 2013, a 2006 University of Michigan study found that only 5 percent wash their hands properly after using the bathroom. people, only two out of three use soap to wash their hands and one in ten does not wash their hands at all. V. Usonis agrees that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly corrected those human habits and reminded him of elemental hand hygiene.

“It just came to our notice then. Try to remember the hand sanitizers in some public place before the COVID pandemic,” he said.

The professor did not rule out the possibility that the flu statistics now recorded do not really reflect a very accurate situation, because due to quarantine and fear of coronavirus infection, some people do not seek medical attention not only for the flu, but also by others. health disorders.

“If they get sick easily, they don’t automatically turn into mild illnesses, including milder forms of flu that simply cannot be recorded,” said the infectologist.

On the other hand, observe V. Usonis, 2020-2021. A very intensive flu vaccination campaign was also carried out, which could also have led to such a dramatic change.

There may be silence before the storm

According to G. Gargasienė, an unusually large number of free flu vaccines were ordered for risk groups this season. According to the specialist, the influx was large as soon as the vaccines were received, but there are still about 50,000. unused vaccine doses.

“It is definitely not too late to get vaccinated and I suggest that people do. In fact, we should think not only about the prevention measures we use to protect ourselves against communicable diseases in general, but also about specific prevention.

In that case, if we increase the number of people vaccinated this year and next at the beginning of the flu season, and in addition to prevention, those non-specific measures: hands, distance, use of masks, etc. “I don’t think we have a significantly higher morbidity compared to other seasons,” he said of a possible scenario for next year.

However, according to V. Usonis, the rejoicing over the decline in the receding flu should not be rushed. The professor points out that this infectious disease is characterized by fairly regular fluctuations that occur every 10-15 years.

“If you remember, the last flu pandemic was in 2009, almost 10 years have passed. It is already quite regular that every 10-15 years. The incidence of influenza in various regions of the world is greatly reduced. But it is a kind of” preparation “for a huge increase in flu activity,” he warned.

The professor explains that the flu virus itself changes quite significantly every year and this becomes one of the reasons why the incidence is increasing steeply and strongly.

“Here we were able to talk a lot and for a long time about the variability of the influenza virus, how those highly variable structures on the surface of the influenza virus are left without their possible variants and the new influenza viruses with a structure still unknown by appearing public. If this happens, it threatens a large increase in the incidence of influenza, “said V. Usonis.

The danger of the flu has been forgotten

Although G. Gargasienė warns that the number of people getting vaccinated against influenza is increasing in Lithuania, still not everyone understands the danger of this disease. The specialist recalls that the flu can also be fatal: last year it claimed 11 lives, last year 26.

“If we look at the figures, not as a percentage, around 70 thousand have been vaccinated in recent seasons. people over 65 years of age, we have a really low percentage of pregnant women, up to 1%, in social care and nursing institutions around 4 thousand. both workers and residents. And with chronic diseases around 30 thousand.

People can underestimate the risk of getting the flu. It is not the same infection as a cold and has been talked about for many years. Perhaps now we have forgotten the dangers of the flu with that situation of the COVID-19 disease. However, the flu, like COVID-19, causes both serious complications and death, ”said the interlocutor.

When asked if she really believes that even after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, people will be aware of the upcoming flu season and will be much more serious about this infection, G. Gargasienė replied:

“In my opinion, as a specialist, awareness comes when a feeling of fear arises. It has long been known that 80 percent. Communicable diseases can be prevented simply by washing your hands properly … In this case, it was fear of COVID-19 infection that prompted people to take those long-known and appropriate prevention measures, such as hand hygiene.

In fact, it is difficult to say how the whole situation will change. People always calm down after vaccines and treatments, ”he said.

Watch the video to learn more about the treatment and diagnosis of influenza, the differences between COVID-19 and influenza, and if a duo of these two diseases is possible.