Five Polish crises that could mean snap elections

In Poland, as in other countries, the threat of COVID-19 is still evident. Although few infections are reported on a daily basis, very few studies are conducted, so the data is unrealistic. Also, less than 50 percent have been fully vaccinated to date. society, and resistance to vaccination is increasingly aggressive.

But these problems continue. In the coming days and weeks, a growing series of serious challenges await the Polish political elite, which could turn into a verdict for the ruling right-wing coalition led by the Law and Justice Party (PiS).

If the rulers stumble and fail one of these exams, it is possible that the parliamentary elections in the country will not go as planned, in 2023, but sooner. In addition, it is now possible to clarify what Poland’s relations with the EU and the United States will be like from now on.

1. Tax tensions

The current rulers, of course, will try to win the elections again in 2023; the third consecutive victory in Polish history would be exceptional.

And it is based mainly on the ‘Polish deal’, an economic program that provides for tax cuts for those who live on average or worse than average. There is also a desire to financially support real estate buyers, allocate more funds for health care, and provide more support to seniors and families with children.

The program is expected to be funded by a steep increase in health care taxes for self-employed citizens, although municipalities are already sounding alarms over the drastic reduction in funding.

The government emphasizes that this economic program will benefit the vast majority of Poles. However, the opposition and employers’ organizations have been quite successful in talking about tax increases, and a poll last week showed that 55% of Poles believe such a reform will impoverish them.

And there is no tension in the ruling coalition itself, which consists of PiS and two smaller parties: the radical right-wing “Solidarity Poland” and the more moderate political force “Consensus.” This team, by the way, has only one vote in the 460-seat Seimas.

Last week, a poll found that 55 percent. Poles believe that tax reform will impoverish them.

Last Wednesday, the country’s Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawieckis, fired Anna Kornecki, Deputy Minister of Development delegated by the Treaty, after criticizing the “Polish agreement”.

“By agreeing to work in the government, I had one goal: to protect Polish businessmen. I cannot accept very high taxes and other obligations on them,” Cornecka wrote on Twitter, and government spokesman Peter Muller said: “Some people are saying the lie “.

Jaroslaw Gowin, the leader of the “Consensus”, held a party meeting on Saturday, and before that he said: “We will decide whether and under what conditions we can continue cooperation in the coalition.”

2. Increase in the salaries of the members of the Seimas

The country’s politics these days have also been shaken by the news that President Andrzej Duda has supported the order since Sept. 1, by as much as 60 percent. increase the salaries of legislators.

The exact opposite was the case in 2018, when PiS head Jaroslaw Kaczynski, publicly outraged by generous financial supplements for MPs, decided to meet 20 percent. to reduce the salaries of the members of the Seimas.

Andrzej Duda supported the order as of September 1, up to 60 percent. increase the salaries of legislators.

The decision to increase wages to increase the wages of Poles is viewed negatively. This week, a poll showed that up to 84 percent disapprove of the measure. the citizens.

For the opposition, this has, of course, become a weapon to attack the rulers. Donald Tusk, who returned from Brussels to Warsaw to lead the opposition “Citizen Platform”, has already convinced party members working at the Seimas to present a proposal to reverse the decision to increase the salaries of deputies.

“It just came to our attention then. But it is obvious that, from the perspective of all citizens, the need is not desperate,” said D. Tuskas, who, by the way, helped the “Citizen Platform” to recover on the tables. 27% now vote for the party and 36% for PiS voters.

3. Troubled Auditor Commander

15 minutes He has already written that PiS is not even more threatened by the opposition, but by Marian Bananas, who is the head of the country’s Supreme Audit Institution (NIK), intimidating the most influential government officials with her inspectors.

An official who had previously served faithfully in PiS but walked away from the party, the inspector recently sent Minister Zbigniew Ziobro to the powerful court of law, as well as the leader of the Poland Solidarity party, which is part of the ruling coalition.

This week, NIK just released a report outlining a number of problems at the Justice Department. This created a special fund to help crime victims, but it turned out that the money was being used for other purposes.

The auditors report that Ziobro did not respond to “systemic problems” in the administration of the fund, as well as to “mechanisms that generate conflicts of interest and corruption.”

Banas informed M. Morawieckis, J. Kaczynski and the director of the Central Anti-Corruption Agency (CBA) about the report. The full document will be published in September.

Ziobro denies all the allegations, and the Justice Department said NIK is using the investigation to “play inside games” and defend the interests of Ban and his son.

The CBA is investigating the origin of Bananas’ personal property, which said the building he owned was used as a guest house, and in early May, the agency conducted a search at the home of NIK’s son’s son. Prosecutors, in turn, accuse Bananas of providing incorrect data.

Be that as it may, this fight is clearly political. And Z. Ziobro, who has long been involved in the power struggle with the more moderate right-wing representative M. Morawieckis, is certainly not helpful.

4. Conflicts with the EU

Internal anger is on the rise at a time when Warsaw’s long-standing conflicts with the EU are approaching the core.

The radical transformation of the Polish judicial system, envisioned by J. Kaczynski and Z. Ziobro, is seen in Brussels as an attempt to crush the political independence of judges.

Ziobro: The belief that the EU is a good girl and gives us money to accept all their demands is propaganda. Poland should remain a member of the EU, but not at any price.

The EU Court of Justice just ruled in July that methods for disciplining Polish judges through the Disciplinary Chamber of the Supreme Court, established in 2017, are contrary to EU law. In this way, the court responded to the European Commission’s complaint that Poland was deviating from the principle of the rule of law, which forms the basis of the EU Treaty.

Community Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders immediately warned that Poland could face fines if it does not reverse certain decisions. On Thursday, the President of the Polish Supreme Court has already partially frozen the activities of the Disciplinary Chamber.

In addition, President Duda at the end of July expressed the opinion that it is necessary to change the country’s law on judicial discipline, which also marks a change of tone in this regard.

In any case, however, Warsaw, at least some political groups, is not lagging behind. The Polish Constitutional Court ruled in July that the EU Court of Justice’s actions against the country’s judicial reforms were unconstitutional.

At the end of August, the Constitutional Court’s response to M. Morawieckis’s appeal is still awaited. The Prime Minister formally asked whether EU law takes precedence over Polish law. In Brussels, there are concerns that Poland may ignore Community law.

The situation is exploited by D. Tusk, who constantly reiterates that the “Citizen Platform” is fighting for Poland’s greater accession to the EU, although M. Morawieckis emphasizes that a possible exit from the Community is a “political fantasy”.

Fantasy or not, Z. Ziobro’s statements leave no room for interpretation.

Responding to the fact that Poland, like Hungary by the way, has not yet received funding from the EU Economic Recovery Fund, the Minister of Justice said: “Believing that the EU is a good aunt and gives us money to satisfy all its demands is propaganda. Poland should remain a member of the EU, but not at any price. “

5. Washington is determined

There is not much harmony in Poland’s relations with the United States, although the Americans are Warsaw’s main allies within NATO.

There is a disagreement over TVN, a popular television channel owned by the American company Discovery. The work of the TVN News Service infuriates a government that seeks tighter control over the media.

TVN expects the channel’s broadcasting license to be renewed in September, but a law is being drafted in parliament to prevent the license from being issued to owner-owned companies based outside the European Economic Area.

The television is formally controlled by a company registered in the Netherlands, which in turn is owned by Discovery, so there is currently no breach of the law. But if the new legislation passes, there will be nowhere to go.

Prime Minister Morawieckis says the new law is necessary to prevent any Polish television from being bought by an “organization from Russia, China or an Arab country.” It is true that Gowin would like an exception in the US.

In any case, the US White House has already warned that President Joe Biden is closely monitoring the situation. And a group of US senators also sent a clear signal on Wednesday, saying in a statement that “the adoption of these laws would have negative consequences for bilateral relations.”