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The question of Lukashenko’s survival is in the hands of Russia
G. Česnakas, a professor at the Lithuanian General Jonas Zemaitis Military Academy (LKA), claims that the Belarusian government’s aggression against civil society, which escalated immediately after last year’s rigged presidential elections, only delays the chances of reaching to an agreement with the west. In addition, according to the political scientist, this promotes an even deeper integration of Belarus with Russia.
“Belarus has been in Russia’s sphere of influence for some time; we can call it a satellite. It is clear that Russia’s influence is growing and will continue to grow as a result of Belarus’ actions since the presidential elections last year. It loses all alternatives. to talk to the West. And this forces her to integrate into Russia even more, voluntarily or involuntarily, “G. Garlic told Eltai.
The expert also doubts the possibilities of democratization of the current regime, emphasizing that what is important for Lukashenko at this time is the issue of the survival of the regime, and not the internal changes of the State.
“I would dare to say that the most important thing for the Lukashenko regime in Belarus is the survival of the regime itself, not the state. I would say that democratization processes should not be expected too much, at least from the current government, because if they do they will be imitation decisions. Therefore, the long-term perspective of Belarus, however, is directed to Russia and this ensures the survival of Lukashenko, “said G. Garnes.
Meanwhile, Vytis Jurkonis, an expert at the Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences (TSPMI), also has no doubt that Russia will seek further cooperation with Belarus. According to the political scientist, the Belarusian dictator is selling his country, and the question of his personal power is to imprison not only Belarus but also his people.
“It just came to our notice then. The Kremlin is taking advantage of the situation where Lukashenko is in power. It has been used for more than 15 years and the pressure is increasing. It sells all of Belarus. We have been watching it for decades. Now there is simply a certain threshold at which the question of Lukashenko’s personal power takes the entire Belarusian state and its society hostage. Lukashenko is asking for an increase in maintenance costs and the Kremlin does not want that. It is a question of price. , not sovereignty, “said the political scientist.
Gintautas Mažeikis, a philosopher at Vytautas Magnus (Vytautas Magnus University), also talks about the Kremlin’s discontent with the current regime. In his opinion, Russia would like to join Belarus and plans to do so, but the current situation in the latter state is not favorable for Vladimir Putin.
“In other words, civil society, the protests that are being organized and organized today in Belarus, all this opposition, the state of such a major civil conflict does not satisfy Russia itself. We see how it is becoming increasingly difficult for Russia will provide assistance to Belarus, motivating it under various conditions, “said G. Mažeikis, adding that the most important factor for Putin was money.
“Lukashenko’s regime is convenient for Putin unless it is because Lukashenko constantly swears allegiance to the Kremlin. However, the Kremlin is counting its money, and the Belarusian regime is very expensive: it makes no sense to maintain such an expensive and useless regime, just the beautiful side of the facade.
“Putin’s regime is not only militaristic, but also very greedy for money. And this second factor (greed for money – ELTA) will lead to the removal of Lukashenko. It is conceivable that we will see only the fine side of the facade between Belarus and Russia. But on the other side of the facade there is enormous monetary pressure. The Russian oligarchs are definitely eager to rob Belarus, but by no means at the expense of their own pockets, as is the case now, “said G. Mažeikis.
Doubts about relations with Belarus raised in Lithuania: “you stand up with one shot”
Vytis Jurkonis categorically disagrees with the view that Lithuania and the West have no influence against the regimes of Belarus and Russia and opportunities to oppose the policies followed by these countries. According to the expert, Lithuania should be more determined on the Belarus issue and not give in to provocations.
“It should be understood that if we are ‘soft’ on the Belarus issue, it is a very strong signal to the Kremlin that they can do whatever they want, both within Belarus and within the country. We ourselves erase our line of value with that indecision. Either we honestly say that we will do nothing and waste the time of others, or we will act more decisively. And that it is possible not only to take demonstrative sanctions, not only to show our principle, but also to harm the sanctions, it seems to me. that these events of recent years have made it clear. The sanctions are working and we have seen Belarus react to them, “said Jurkonis, noting that lifting the sanctions now would be like a” shot in the foot. “
Belarusian civil society faces serious and painful challenges ahead
According to Garlic, civil society in Belarus today is intimidated.
“Belarusian civil society is currently absolutely intimidated. There are still many people in prisons, Belarusian society is afraid to protest and express more opposition,” said the political scientist. According to him, Belarusian civil society actors abroad can provide moral support to resist the regime again, however, according to Garlic, the regime will be inclined to oppose it.
“They (the opposition outside Belarus – ELTA) can provide moral support, but it is clear that people in Belarus will experience violence again, so they have moral support, but I fully understand their fears as the Belarusian regime confronts them.” He said garlic.
For his part, G. Mažeikis affirms that such an everyday terror can rarely be seen anywhere in Europe. According to him, most Belarusians hate their own regime, but fear severely limits democratic activity and protests within the country.
“Currently, an extraordinary number of prominent opponents, activists and other public figures have gone abroad. They are exerting enormous pressure on Europe and the world to influence this regime and its change. So we do not see any possibility from within, and from Outside we cannot strike a blow, but the only scenario imaginable today is economic pressure, ”said G. Mažeikis.
V. Jurkonis also talks about the importance of the international community. According to the political scientist, the international community did not respond adequately to the events of the past a year ago.
“If there had been such a reaction at that time as there was on the Ryanair plane, perhaps now we would be living with a different neighbor. But there were no such sanctions, there was no such determination, there was no such solidarity,” said V. Jurkonis , adding that significant changes had already occurred in the neighboring state.
Professor G. Mažeikis affirms that Belarusian civil society awaits a difficult and painful democratization process.
“Belarus is not sufficiently formed neither as a civil society nor as a nation. Neither ethnically nor civically. This becoming of them will take much longer and will be much more painful than in Ukraine. Given the constant pressure and geopolitical interest of Russia, this will certainly take And the greatest changes will occur only when the party regime in Russia changes, when Russia itself begins to democratize, “said the philosophy professor.
Possible scenario for the future of Belarus: in the near future we can see the convulsions of the regime
Mr Jurkonis said that the fate of Belarus would depend on pressure from the international community and the determination of civil society to defeat the Lukashenko regime.
“We can see the convulsions of the regime in the near future. This will depend on our united and coherent position on human rights and democracy in Belarus. If there is as much determination as in June, perhaps in a few years we will have some kind of election, an opportunity. for some Belarusians to return. The transition period will not be very easy. There will be a lot of effort to “divide and rule”, there will be a lot of talk, there will be many conspiracy theories. “It is very likely that a non-European candidate may come during the elections.” says the expert.
“I think that everyone would benefit from this: the neighbors, the state of Belarus and the citizens. This is not entirely the realm of utopia, because the current regime is completely unsustainable, “said V. Jurkonis.
“If that does not happen, then we will throw away all our talks on democracy and human rights, free opportunities. Consequently, all authoritarian practices will approach us in one way or another. Today, that battlefield is Belarus, tomorrow it will be. Poland and tomorrow it will be Lithuania. In a field like this, where you earn more money, brute force, small states are simply forced to die. It is obvious, both after the history of Ryanair and after the migration of migrants to the territory of Lithuania, that this is far from being a security issue not only in Belarus, not even in the region, but also in the whole of Europe. ”V. Jurkonis said.
