Experts: To avoid the third wave, it is necessary to maintain the maximum limits until the beginning of March.

At a remote government meeting, Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė declared that no quarantine changes would be discussed or approved on Monday. Only the situation will be assessed.

Latest information

The government data analyst Aistis Šimaitis presented the latest statistical information at the government meeting.

“We should be happy, good news, we all feel that the percentage of both new cases and positive investigations is decreasing. The average number of cases has dropped almost 3 times, from 3,000 to 1,000, the number of positive cases – half. Now we are somewhere at the level of early November, “he said.

A. Šimaitis said that although the situation is improving, the figures do not allow to say that the pandemic is under control.

“We went back a couple of months last week in terms of deaths. More than 37 people have never died in the last week. This confirms the downward trends,” said the data expert.

A government expert said there was also a significant drop in mobility.

“In recent days, mobility has increased slightly, people go back to work after the holidays,” he said.

A. Šimaitis explained that pandemic indicators are improving in almost the entire country.

“The direction in which all our parameters are moving is positive. We can say that the trend is sustainable, we have had a negative momentum for 17 days, ”said A. Šimaitis at the government meeting.

He stated that Lithuania is now in a phase of “exponential decline”.

“How much are we missing? We now have an average of around 1000-1100 cases. In other words, if we maintain the current rate of decline, in the second half of February the limit of 200 daily cases would be reached. That is what we had in October. If we reduce the rate of decline, then the limit of 200 cases will be moved to May ”, commented the expert on the dynamics of the coronavirus pandemic.

A. Šimaitis assured that the figures are very close to the limits of the controlled situation.

“You have to look very carefully and not slow it down, very close to the figures when the situation is already under control,” he said.

The expert said that even another wave with fewer pandemics will not be as painful as with relatively high rates.

Still, the expert explained that the situation is still not good in hospitals.

Support Bubbles – Now

Ramunė Kalėdienė, Dean of the Faculty of Public Health of the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences (LSMU), presented the proposals of the expert group to the Government.

“Despite the improvement in the situation, we are still in scenario D, the worst scenario. And how do we go now to scenarios C and B? Our suggestion is that we stick to that lower bound range. (…) That is, if the average of 999 cases has been reached, we intend to reach a lower limit ”, expressed R. Kalėdienė the experts’ proposals at the Government meeting.

He said that mitigation planning is already necessary for education, business, but this requires a very clear testing strategy.

The experts suggested maintaining restrictions on movement between municipalities. The same prohibitions will also continue to apply to the service sector.

Laimonas Griškevičius, director of the Center for Hematology, Oncology and Transfusioniology at the Vilnius University Hospital Santara Clinics, told a government meeting that the rollout should start in March to prevent a third wave of coronavirus.

Paulius Skruibis, Associate Professor at the Vilnius University Institute of Psychology, again reminded the Government of the idea of ​​support bubbles. If this proposal were blessed by the Government, one person’s home could interact with another home to provide emotional and practical assistance to people experiencing increased stress from isolation.

Both support bubbles undertake to have no other close contacts outside of them.

“We would propose to legalize this bubble of support now,” said P. Skruibis at the government meeting.

Priority is given to opening schools

Mr. Skruibis noted that 25 thousand. General education students need learning support when learning at a distance.

We unanimously support the proposal of the Ministry of Education, Science and Sport (ŠMSM) to offer distance education at school for those children who do not have the conditions to study at home. (…) For that they would have space, a computer, an internet connection. Meals should also be provided there, as some have free food ”, presented the proposal P. Skruibis.

He argued that as the situation improves and scenario C approaches, opening schools should be the first priority to be prepared for by vaccinating teachers, seniors and introducing tests for teachers and students. The opening should be gradual: first for beginners and graduates, then for other students.

Action plan for educational institutions

Tum Bernot, a physician at Cambridge University Hospital, listed all the measures that need to be put in place before schools open.

“Our first objective when trying to open schools, which will really require a lot of effort, is to keep them clean, now they are because they are empty (…) The first step is a negative PCR test, I would suggest two days before going back to school for students, educators, personal support to take the test. Students who received a negative test go back to schools, and those who test positive are isolated for another 10 days, ”he said.

Bernot said there must be very clear rules and that they must work to prevent people with symptoms from entering schools.

“The second proposed step is to reduce risk and the transfer of roles of teachers in the chain. The vaccination of educational personnel and teachers would play a very important role. And before the vaccines arrive, I would suggest that educators do serological testing, ”he commented on the suggestions.

A doctor at Cambridge University Hospital said there should be as little contact as possible between students, with masks mandatory for all except those not attending kindergarten.

He explained that rapid antigen testing should be done on all students twice a week.

The schools, according to T. Bernot, would open in several stages.

During opening phase A, students who need assistance (about 25,000 of them) and about 2,500 teachers would return to schools.

“It would be a pilot phase to see how things go,” said the doctor.

They must be spotted for testing 2 days before returning to educational institutions.

The municipalities must guarantee the collection of smears. This could be done by healthcare personnel or training personnel.

Movement restrictions can be adjusted

The Interior Minister, Agnė Bilotaitė, asked when, in the opinion of the experts, it would be possible to release the restrictions on movement between municipalities.

“Could it be put together in some stages? Perhaps first in the municipalities of the ring, perhaps on certain days. There are many discussions, “said the minister.

Vytautas Kasiulevičius, vice dean of the Vilnius University Medical Faculty, explained at the government meeting that the greatest risk remains social contacts.

“In the first place, due to the launch, many simulations have been carried out in the world, one of the closest: in Germany. (…) It shows that the renewal of social contacts increases the number of new cases from 108 to 150 percent. Another in terms of impact is the opening of educational institutions, which increases the number of new cases from 34 to 46 percent. (…) Retail: from 24 to 33 percent. Later, small businesses, from 14 to 18 percent. cent ”, said V. Kasiulevičius as the biggest risks.

He said the effects the country begins to feel when vaccines are received by about 25 percent of the public.

The doctor explained that the movement restriction is for unnecessary contacts.

“Weekends present the greatest risk. People have the opportunity to move to work, the problem of circular municipalities is really acute. (…) This issue should be addressed especially during working hours, on working days there should be freedom of movement to communicate ”, V. Kasiulevičius shared his ideas.

At the end of the meeting, Prime Minister I. Šimonytė stated that several more discussions with experts would take place on the transition to the next quarantine scenario.

“We are not proposing radical changes now. (…) We have received a lot of letters, comments, withdrawals and requests. It seems to me that there should be two more separate discussions and talk about what might start to change after which sequence,” he said. the first Minister.

One meeting would be for education and the other for economic activities.

Two patterns

Two unions have also asked the government to review quarantine restrictions.

The Association of Estheticians and Cosmetologists asks the authorities to allow estheticians and cosmetologists to return to work safely from February 1.

The Lithuanian Employers’ Confederation (GDL) also addressed the Government and highlighted the conditions of unequal competition.

The document indicates that an important part of the commercial restrictions imposed by the Government Resolution have been “overboard”, since the biggest beneficiaries are currently the stores whose main activity is the food retail trade, but which also sell an important part of other goods.

The Grand Duchy of Lithuania offers to rely on the good experience of other countries to ensure the safe operation of shops, restaurants, cafes and other commercial and public catering establishments during the quarantine.

Delphi recalls that the extremely strict quarantine is valid throughout the country until January 31. To this day, movement restrictions also apply between municipalities in the country.