Experts: Talk about a lighter quarantine scenario soon, but a minimal release package is in the works

Experts presented 4 quarantine scenarios to the government last week. Based on current morbidity indicators, Lithuania may be assigned worst-case D. There is still a long way to go before a much freer C-scenario.

“Scenario C says very clearly that there should be no more than 500 cases per 100,000. population in the last 14 days. What does this mean? In about 14 days we have to have numbers no higher than 1000.

Today is the second day we have such numbers, with lower numbers on both Monday and Tuesday, less testing than usual has been done. We still don’t know what it will be like tomorrow or if we don’t exceed those 1000 cases a day. ” Delphi said Paulius Skruibis, a board member and associate professor at the Vilnius University Institute of Psychology.

The quarantine shouldn’t be released until January 31.

Skruibis said the possible quarantine scenarios presented by experts indicate that it is difficult to talk about quarantined releases until January 24, 14 days after the number of cases declined.

“It is clear that the desire of the people of the quarantine is very understandable. But, on the other hand, consistency is very important so that people can predict and know what to expect next. If we have announced the quarantine until January 31 It seems that this will be the case, nothing less ”, said the expert.

He said he doesn’t see much prospect that he can be released before January 31, when the government announced the quarantine.

Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius, a data scientist involved in the council’s activities, urged him to wait until January 31.

“You need to wait. The number of cases has decreased, the number of patients is just beginning to decrease. Until hospitals are free and they say they can now function normally, we cannot think about layoffs. There are more and more signs that the decline is sustainable.

From a scientific point of view, we can probably say that it is sustainable by the end of this week. We have a decline, but we have to look at all the data – isn’t there something that was overlooked somewhere? So far, the data does not appear to contradict the hypothesis that the pandemic is persisting in all sections. This is a very good sign.

We can say it from a scientific point of view, but from a practical point of view, science cannot say when to launch, it depends on specific things, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

Along with 4 quarantine scenarios, the idea of ​​a social bubble was introduced last week. In the worst case scenario, scenario D, would allow single people to interact with the other household if both make sure that they have no other external contacts.

“I think it’s necessary to do it on stage D. I think it should have been done earlier, but there are other opinions. There is a real discussion about this, it needs to be done, and it’s really very realistic to do it, ”said P. Skruibis.

Talking about releases

We have been living in an extremely strict quarantine for a month. According to P. Skruibis, experts are talking about possible minimum exemptions, but there is no solution yet.

“It just came to our attention then. Right now, there is a discussion in the Board of Experts about winter sports, what is happening outdoors. Perhaps one could think about it here, I can’t say anything because none has been taken. decision. ” Delphi he said.

When discussing the liberalization of winter entertainment conditions, according to data scientist V. Zemlio-Balevičius, this could only be expected by those companies that could ensure compliance with established security measures.

“The activities that I would say can really be unleashed are all winter sports activities that are done outdoors, like ski slopes and the like. Appropriate distances and restrictions must be followed here, but the risk of infection in the field is much lower. If the ski slopes can guarantee that, opening them would be the first step that can be taken ”, he explained.

A quarantine facilitation package is being prepared

Professor, Department of Health Management, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences (LSMU) Mindaugas Stankūnas Delphi He said it was certainly too early to talk about possible quarantine relief. And the completely vague mutations of the virus are also concerning.

“We just realized that Scenario C will not be available soon. I think the situation in the country has stabilized with a positive trend. But to say that we are already on the rails and going down is very difficult. And we hope to receive information about the British strain of the South African virus, ”said M. Stankūnas.

The dean of the LSMU School of Public Health, Professor Ramunė Kalėdienė, also highlighted the threat of the British strain of the virus when assessing the situation of the pandemic.

“We are seeing an improvement in the numbers, but really the situation has not improved enough yet to think about layoffs because the health centers are crowded with patients and the situation in the health system is really very tense.

We also see big threats from the UK. “A new strain of coronavirus is spreading across Europe and this is a huge threat, and the numbers could rise rapidly, as was the case in Ireland or the UK,” he said.

Interviewees said experts are preparing possible proposals to the government to ease quarantine conditions.

“It just came to our knowledge then. I still couldn’t say anything about the trend, because a meeting is scheduled for January 17, in which a group of experts will present the prepared proposals to the Government, if and what could be done in a near future, perhaps from that date. It will be considered what proposals to present to the Government, “said the LSMU professor.

He said that he did not yet want to issue specific proposals because it was not yet clear whether the epidemiological situation in the country allowed changing the quarantine conditions.

“I don’t want to go into detail, but expecting something very essential would definitely be too daring. But maybe some lows will. There are a number of options, I don’t want them to ring yet, this is still a topic of discussion. A mitigation package for possible quarantine conditions is being considered, but it is still debated whether the situation allows the introduction of something like this, ”said interlocutor M. Stankūnas.

He explained that there is also a change in the restrictions on movement between municipalities at the negotiating table, an issue that is being discussed.

“We have considered our proposal, but whatever the government adopts, let’s wait for Sunday,” he said.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius also did not rule out that as epidemiological conditions improve, it is really worth considering relaxing movement restrictions.

At the same time, however, he noted that the drop is visible due in large part to movement restrictions. He showed people that the situation is very serious.

“The presence of the police shows people that the state is serious. When we really see the drop, the ban on circulation between municipalities will be lifted. However, the situation will have to be monitored: if with the liberalization of the movement between municipalities we begin to see that the number of cases rises again, we will know that this measure is essential.

Most people are aware of and follow the established requirements. But to control this by the unconscious part, that blockage related to the restriction of movement by not being able to pass, acted much more than the calls on television ”, the scientist explained.

Priority: educational institutions

P. Skruibis, associate professor at the Vilnius University Institute of Psychology, stated that when discussing any release from quarantine, educational institutions need to be taken into account. Professor R. Kalėdienė also identified education as a priority area.

“Maybe we will think of some release when we can open schools at least partially. (…) We are talking both about beginners, who are quite difficult, and about graduates who need to prepare for the exams ”, he said. Delphi taught by P. Skruibis.

“We plan to talk to experts about educational institutions tomorrow and in the next few days, because this is a very important topic and there are some other topics where decisions can be made to change the restrictions a bit, but such all-inclusive restrictions should not be needed in the next few weeks, wait.

I think the priority is the educational system, the educational system, because it is a particularly sensitive place. If we start to reduce restrictions in parallel, the numbers will inevitably start to rise and we will get bogged down again with the liberalization of the education system, ”said R. Kalėdienė.

According to P. Skruibis, the Ministry of Education, Science and Sports (ŠMSM) states that around 10 percent of students experience great learning difficulties when entering distance learning and do not have the appropriate conditions. That’s about 25 thousand. students.

“Imagine if so many students drop out of the educational process, then we are guaranteed to increase exclusion. These children often come from low-income families with other social problems. But if they go to school, there is still the possibility that they will miss studying ”, considered the expert.

Mr. Skruibis emphasized that those families that can create the conditions for their children to study at a distance, will get out of this situation possibly without significant losses.

“But those people will fight. So I would say let’s think about exemptions only when we can open schools, that’s written in Scenario C. If we can’t open schools, why can we open something else? “Said the interlocutor.

He said that in any sense, the release from quarantine threatens to increase the number of cases again.

“Starting from other places, we are getting further and further away from opening schools,” explained P. Skruibis.

Delphi recalls that 902 new cases of coronavirus were reported in Lithuania last day. The number of new cases per day on Monday was 775. Slightly fewer samples were tested than usual in the last two days.

Currently, the total incidence of COVID-19 in Lithuania is 968.5 cases per 100,000. population in 14 days.