Experts see several reasons for the sharp drop in flu cases and warn of an imminent threat

Only 3 patients per week

Last week, in the seventh week of this year, only 3 people in Lithuania contracted the flu: two in Klaipėda and one in Vilnius county. A little earlier, in the sixth week of 2021 and another week before, the incidence was only slightly higher. I make 7 people sick a week.

Slightly more patients had acute upper respiratory tract infections (CVD). Last week, according to data provided by the National Center for Public Health (NVSC), 3,491 people had colds after the flu was rejected. Most of the patients were in Vilnius and Kaunas counties. There were even more UVKTI patients in the sixth week of this year. Excluding the flu, 3,998 people had colds.

By comparison, in the sixth week of 2020, a total of 23,000 people became ill with influenza and CVD. 851 people, including 1,474 flu. In the seventh week of last year, a total of 22 thousand people were infected with ŪVKTI. 934 people, of which 1,802 are influenza.

The global incidence of influenza and CVD in the sixth week of this year was 14.3 cases per 10,000. population, in the seventh week – 12.5 cases per 10 thousand. population.

Last year, the total incidence of influenza and CVD in the sixth week of this year was 85.4 cases per 10,000. population, in the seventh week – 82.1 cases per 10 thousand. population.

So last year and this year, the incidence of flu and colds at the same time differed significantly.

Record season

Greta Gargasienė, chief specialist of NVSC’s Communicable Disease Management Division, told the Delfi portal that this flu and cold season is a record low in terms of a very low number of illnesses and sees several possible reasons why it is so low.

“The flu has not disappeared anywhere, only the situation due to the low incidence of the flu has occurred not only in Lithuania, not only in European countries, but also all over the world. This may be related to the prevalence of COVID-19 infection.

People, especially those experiencing symptoms, are less likely to seek help from personal health care centers. If they do experience symptoms, they first think it is COVID-19 and are being tested for the disease. If the diagnosis of COVID-19 is ruled out, it is unlikely that you will go any further and do more research to find out what it is. If the answer to COVID-19 is yes, the GPs monitor the person and the treatment facilities decide the entire treatment strategy.

In essence, both COVID-19 and influenza have the same mode of transmission and the symptoms are very similar. Preventive measures taken around the world to try to prevent or reduce COVID-19 are also effective in other respiratory infections, such as the flu. Those measures include keeping your distance, not communicating with other symptomatic people or not communicating at all with non-family members, washing hands, using hand sanitizers, sneezing, coughing, and wearing nasal and mouth protection.

It’s safe to say that when the world, enclosed in its bubbles, tries to protect itself from COVID-19, it also affects other infections that spread in the same way, ”said G. Gargasienė.

The worst was during the 2017-2018 flu season

The NVSC specialist noted that influenza, as a disease, is characterized by annual fluctuations in morbidity. For two years in a row, the incidence may be lower, followed by slightly higher for a couple of years.

For example, the incidence of influenza was not particularly high last year either. True, higher than this year. From week 40 of 2019 to week six of 2020, 5667 flu and more than 300 thousand were registered. ŪVKTI. This season, from week 40 of 2020 to week six of this year, only 285 cases of influenza were registered and 156 thousand cases of colds were registered.

Last season, 596 people were hospitalized due to the flu, 11 died, and no one was hospitalized or died this year.

And here, the 2017-2018 flu season was one of the most difficult in the last decade. That year, up to 57 thousand people in Lithuania were ill throughout the season. Then a strain of the H3N2 flu circulated, named by American experts as one of the most powerful.

Several reasons for suppressing influenza

And yet why is there so little flu this year when there is usually a peak in the incidence of the disease?

Alvydas Laiškonis, a licensed Ph.D. in biomedical sciences and professor of infectious diseases at the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, saw several reasons for this phenomenon.

“Now everyone is very excited about the coronavirus infection. The diagnosis of influenza was usually made from the first 1-3 laboratory cases. And then I was already writing a diagnosis based on clinical symptoms.

Sometimes the clinical symptoms of influenza and coronavirus are very similar. Doctors are now likely to hire more insurance when looking for a coronavirus infection so it doesn’t go away.

And there is the so-called viral interference. If there are two viruses at the same time, the stronger is more likely to spread and the weaker is less likely to occur. Usually two viral infections do not coexist at the same time – the strongest defeat.

Another thing is that a large number of populations have been vaccinated against the flu this year. This may also have had an effect, ”said Professor A. Laiškonis.

The interviewee speculated that some people with the flu may not even have seen a doctor this year.

“Fear is fear. If a person is unwell, has a fever, is usually afraid to go to the doctor, and stays home for 2 to 5 days. It seems to me that some of the flu is not even diagnosed if it is easily passed. People are afraid to go to the doctor’s clinic right now.

Also, self-medication is very popular with us. You will find acetaminophen, all other medications, in almost every home. They drank them for two or three days without getting sick, they got hot and it was all over. and the flu is a 5-7 day illness, “noted Professor A. Laiškonis.

How is the flu diagnosed?

Valery Morozov, a GP at Northway Medical and Surgical Center, speculated that the quarantine had prevented the flu from spreading this year.

“Few cases of influenza are detected due to effective quarantine measures. Quarantine is not a specific control for COVID-19, it works well for other airborne infections. It works more effectively for influenza because: the virus is known and there is some immunity in the herd, many socially responsible and self-loving people are vaccinated against the flu, thus reducing its spread even further. In addition, in a pandemic, it is possible to issue incapacity for work for a second year if the patient does not he goes to the medical institution, thus reducing the possibility of infecting others ”, commented Dr. V. Morozov to the Delfi portal.

When asked how doctors diagnose the flu this year and how they differentiate it from COVID-19 infection; after all, the symptoms of diseases caused by both viruses are similar, the doctor answered the question: “Why do women recognize ten different shades: raspberry, burgundy? , violet, etc., and men are still red?

Doctors are trained to make diagnoses. And yet there is a medical discovery like research. The entire country has learned about a nasopharyngeal test for COVID, and doctors have known about such a test for years. This is how we diagnose. “

Will the now suppressed flu hit harder later?

Professor Saulius Čaplinskas, a specialist in communicable diseases, said in an interview with the Delfi portal a little earlier that due to the current situation, experts predict a flu jump in the fall of 2022.

“If people don’t get the flu vaccine and there are few people with the flu, and the flu virus is still spreading and still mutating, then there is likely more flu than coronavirus,” S. Chaplinskas warned.

True, Professor A. Laiškonis did not dare to say that the return of the flu will hit much harder than during the usual season.

“All viruses are mutating. In the late 19th century, there was a severe Russian flu against the Spanish, which spread from Kazakhstan to St. Petersburg and beyond.

It goes without saying that if we don’t have as many cases of the flu now, it can mutate. After all, there are different strains of the flu virus every year – that’s what we have in H3N2, that’s H1N1. A tough season can be expected, but I wouldn’t anticipate it. When we predict, people get it and we keep them in a certain fear. Older people, in particular, remain in such a stressful situation. We think this is due to the fact that people have more psychological problems, “noted A. Laiškonis.