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“We must not be intimidated, the forecasts are worrying, but they are not tragic and everything is in our hands. Both current [valdžia], both the following: one delivers the work, implements what has to be implemented, the other takes charge, visualizes his own action plan, algorithm in the first days of his work “, said G. Nausėda after the meeting with the experts .
“It is not the case that someone is responsible, while others live in peace. “The government, the presidency, the government, the ministry and the people themselves are responsible for how long it will take to fight the coronavirus and how successful it will be,” he added.
Photo by Luke April / 15 minutes / Gitanas Nausėda
The meeting with the experts was also attended by the Minister of Health, Aurelijus Veryga, and the candidate for Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė.
Press conference:
VIDEO: Scientists have made COVID-19 predictions, which were evaluated by the president: worrying but not tragic
The expert council, divided into three groups, analyzed the scope of hospital care and its dynamics over time.
Mindaugas Stankūnas, a professor at the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, first discussed the current statistics of COVID-19 cases and the number of patients in hospitals.
“Practically 5% of all active cases. needs hospital care. <...> That ratio is very stable, “he said.
About half of patients treated in hospital need oxygen masks, about a tenth, in intensive care and intensive care units, said M. Stankūnas.
Believe that the “apocalyptic” scenario will not come true
Based on these statistics, the researchers highlighted various scenarios for the development of COVID-19.
The first is “what would happen if there were nothing, if we did not have quarantine measures, the epidemic would continue to develop and we would live our normal lives.”
M. Stankūnas assured that in such a case Grinčas would really steal Christmas.
“Grince would come and steal Christmas, because according to our estimates, at that time, at the end of December, we would have almost 95 thousand. people with COVID-19. Applying that ratio, around 4.5 to 5 thousand patients would be treated in Lithuanian hospitals at that time. patients.
You can imagine, I will not say the exact number, but in the Kaunas clinics there are more than 2 thousand. beds, ”he compared.
The researchers did not examine this scenario further, as Lithuania introduced quarantine and restrictions on daily activities.
As the quarantine is introduced, we believe that a completely apocalyptic scenario will not occur.
“As the quarantine is introduced, the Lithuanians, I believe, will follow more or less measures, and we believe that a completely apocalyptic scenario will not occur,” commented M. Stankūnas.
1150 beds need to be prepared
The second scenario is about what would happen if Lithuanian society initially followed the quarantine regime in a disciplined way and then relaxed.
“Of course, we shouldn’t have such a terrible option, but at the beginning of December it would be about 50 thousand. sick people. But we also assume that people’s consciousness will be high, they will follow the recommendations, “said M. Stankūnas.
Speaking of the most realistic scenarios for the spread of COVID-19, the researcher did not expand, but noted that we need to have at least 1,150 beds for COVID-19 patients.
Photo by Lukas Balandis / 15min / Mindaugas Stankūnas
“If the terrible options do not really happen, but are the most widely believed, we should be prepared for about 1,150 beds. I think the number of COVID-19 beds could reassure us,” he said.
If the public adheres to quarantine restrictions, there should be fewer cases in the second half of November than now.
“We really believe that the situation can be controlled and that it can be really bad. We forecast that in some calculations on November 20, in other calculations, on November 27 we should see positive changes, the number of cases should decrease ”, said M. Stankūnas.
Wait for existing restrictions to take effect
He added that with the introduction of the first quarantine in the spring, residents took their self-protection requirements very seriously: “We observed that the curve began to descend faster than planned, <...> The Lithuanians surprised us ”.
The measures introduced by the Government to control the spread of COVID-19 are now, according to M. Stankūnas, sufficient.
“We think they will work,” he said, adding that the council had already started considering how to get out of quarantine, what restrictions should be lifted first.
Photo by Lukas Balandi / 15min / Remigijus Mažeika
In the current situation, medical institutions seek to provide the necessary assistance to all residents, to the greatest extent possible, to provide planned services and treat patients with COVID-19, said Remigijus Mažeika, director of the Šiauliai Hospital, in the Press conference.
In response to these goals, the researchers say they recommend greater involvement of primary care centers in the diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19 patients and the establishment of fever clinics in all municipalities.
“Our proposal to organize fever clinics in each municipality, where patients would receive both the diagnosis and the necessary help according to the cause of the disease,” said R.Mažeika.
New measures are said to be needed across the country
Those fever clinics, he said, should be centrally equipped with rapid antigen tests.
There is also a “necessary financing solution”, the conditions to organize brigades and the participation of all primary health care facilities, regardless of the form of ownership.
“By enabling fever clinics in this way, we could really reduce the number of patients calling emergency departments. Today, the emergency departments are overcrowded, ”said the director of the Šiauliai Hospital.
To avoid hospitals having to interrupt scheduled services, COVID-19 patients must receive treatment beyond the main hospitals in major cities.
“We propose to allow the heads of the organizing institutions to have more powers to organize the opening of wards in support hospitals – regional, district – where treatment can be provided, starting with continuous treatment,” said R. Mažeika.
In addition, according to him, medical brigades should appear.
“There should be a brigade formed at the national level by specialists of the highest level – infection control, resuscitators, anesthesiologists, pulmonologists – who, if necessary, could provide advice, medical assistance and diagnosis establishing departments in support hospitals in the regions” said R. Mažeika.
The researchers also say that the state is offering to purchase rapid PCR tests.
“Our proposal is to provide a centralized acquisition of all treatment facilities that will treat COVID-19 patients with rapid PCR tests, which are performed in one hour,” said the director of the Šiauliai Hospital.
According to Edita Sužiedėlienė, Vice Chancellor of Vilnius University, the peak of the number of COVID-19 cases should be reached by the end of November, and then the number of cases will fall, but not abruptly, but on a slope type curve.
“So we have to start thinking about how to stabilize it so that it does not become what we live now,” he said, adding that the expert council that would be convened would work now.
“We really need to have a testing strategy so that when we come out of the peak of the epidemic, we can manage the hotspots that are still rotting. And those chimneys will be our biggest problem, the biggest risk of going back to the status quo the situation we have now, “said E.Sužiedėlienė.
He noted that the National Center for Public Health lacks personnel capable of working with the traceability of COVID-19 contacts.
“There will be a proposal to form a reserve. First of all, our eyes go to the municipal public health offices, where we can find specialists and volunteers who can get involved in this activity,” said E.Sužiedėlienė.
During the last day, a record number of COVID-19 cases was again established in Lithuania: 1656, six people died. The national quarantine will go into effect on Saturday due to the COVID-19 situation in the country and will last at least until midnight on November 29.
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