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The Advisory Council of Experts will make proposals to the Government on the management of Covid-19 on Monday. Its members emphasize to the tv3.lt news portal that we are still in the most dangerous stage of the spread of the D virus – the situation is still really complicated.
Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė stated that the quarantine will not be lifted on January 31, although some restrictions may be relaxed, but these measures will be taken with great care. According to the head of government, although the situation is improving, it is not yet necessary to relax. She suggested looking at the example of Ireland, which managed the pandemic long before they were caught by a new mutation in the virus.
On Thursday, the prime minister noted that the government does not promise to abandon the decision to restrict the movement of the population between municipalities, since this ban, according to her, is yielding positive results in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic.
Zemlys-Balevičius: The situation in medical institutions remains difficult
Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius, member of the Advisory Board and researcher of UAB Euromonitor International, told the news portal tv3.lt that the situation in Lithuania remains difficult, we are in the scenario of the most dangerous D virus spread.
“We see that there are positive signs: a decrease in cases, a visible decrease in deaths, a slight decrease in hospitals.” But the situation is quite complicated, because there are more than 2,000 in hospitals. patients. The number of cases has not yet reached zone C. Now it is very important to maintain that moment so that in the end a better situation comes to us, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
According to the researcher, to make it known, doctors must first say that they are ready to have the additional capacity to handle Covid-19.
“Doctors probably will not be able to say that for the next two weeks, because the number of patients treated should be reduced to around 400 to 600 people,” said the interviewee.
According to him, to release the quarantine restrictions, it is necessary to control the epidemic. According to him, now Lithuania has the only tool: strict restrictions.
“If we liberate, how do we catch the people who come into contact? Until we have a normal contact trace and a normal test strategy that captures and isolates all new cases, we cannot (auto-free-paste). If we loosen the restrictions, it will be like in other countries. For example, like Ireland, which introduced restrictions, lifted and then jumped again.
Let us also remember the strain of the virus, which is probably already found in Lithuania, but is not yet fully widespread due to the maintenance of restrictions. If we forgive, that variety can be extended. It would be a layoff for a week or two, and then the doctors will go back to the war zone, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
First offers to open schools, offers a trial strategy for companies
According to the scientist, when the situation in Lithuania is much better and it is already possible to talk about the release of quarantine restrictions, he first suggests starting with the education sector.
“I think unequivocally the first to come out should be the education sector, which is quite complicated. For graduates approaching exams, we need to figure out how to do it. When we liberalize education and see that these cases have not increased, then we will think of other activities.
Economic activities could take place with the appropriate evidence. This would be transferred to those companies that want to resume operations. There is a similar testing strategy to hospitals: you test everyone every week, preventive tests, and immediately isolate a sick person. Besides, I don’t think we can open anything, ”said the interlocutor.
According to the researchers, at the beginning of January, the Council of Experts had already presented to the Government a testing strategy for companies with the widespread use of antigen tests, contact tracing: “It was suggested how companies open up because it is a matter of present. The government, as I understand it, is already doing something. “
Stankūnas: “Perhaps minimal releases could be expected”
Mindaugas Stankūnas, a member of the Expert Advisory Board and a professor at the Department of Health Management at the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, told the news portal tv3.lt that the situation has stabilized at the moment, but remains hard.
“The situation is moving in a positive direction, it is also visible to the public. The figures published now are really different from what we saw in the second half of December. But the situation remains complicated: more than 60,000 people in Lithuania are infected with the coronavirus. people, and in Lithuania more than 2 thousand people are treated in the hospital. patients. {…} Every day we identify as many new cases as were detected during the spring peak.
The decreasing trends are encouraging if the peculiarities of the activity of the Lithuanian population have not changed their mind. We are also afraid of disturbing messages about the so-called British strain of the virus or the strain of the virus registered in South Africa, ”said M. Stankūnas.
According to the professor, from next week there may be minimal quarantine releases.
“I think that the necessary and minimal releases can come as of next week after the government meeting. Perhaps minimal redundancies could be expected. It is up to the Government to make those decisions.
However, I think we shouldn’t really think about some essential (releases) that would seem very important to us without the end of January. So far, the situation is complicated. {…} However, I do not want to anticipate facts, we have discussed in the expert council and proposed various options, but it is not yet clear how the Government will look, “said the interlocutor.
Two areas were highlighted
Ramunė Kalėdienė, dean of the Faculty of Public Health at the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, which advises the government, also notes that the situation is improving: the total number of infections is decreasing, but it remains difficult and mutations of the coronaviruses are a threat.
“It just came to our attention then. It is still a very short time and it is difficult to speak of a stable improvement in the situation. The situation in medical institutions is improving slightly, but the situation is still very tense.
High risk of spread of the mutated virus in the UK, as it is very difficult to control and prevent the invasion of this virus into Lithuania. Still, it will also show those mutations. With this mutation, there is a great risk that we, like Ireland, will find ourselves in this situation. When the situation was controlled, the morbidity increased in terrible numbers. That risk is growing.
Therefore, it is very difficult to speak of releasing restrictions. Of course, we have very important areas, educational institutions, that are really under a lot of stress. We have a bad psychological state of people where we really need to think about how we can help people keep up with those limitations. But so far I could not provide a good specific knowledge about the release of restrictions, ”said R. Kalėdienė.
Razmuvienė offers not to relax the quarantine
Daiva Razmuvienė, an epidemiologist at the National Public Health Center (NVSC), does not belong to the expert advisory group, but in her opinion, the release from quarantine should not be rushed yet.
“It just came to our attention then. As it is, so it is: let’s wait, see and watch. The tightening of the quarantine has produced positive benefits. The proportion of positive tests has already decreased in the last 7 days. Where to calculate from Of all the studies conducted, there are approximately 14% positive tests and there were 28%.
The decrease in positive responses from all samples taken is very positive. There is a decrease in new cases each day when it is registered within 7 to 14 days, a decrease of almost 23 percent. These positive epidemiological indicators suggest that the situation is gradually improving. But knowing another situation, the number of people hospitalized in hospitals is decreasing, but there are a number of difficult conditions: with artificial lung ventilation, full of resuscitation. The personal protection chain needs great protection.
Even though the numbers are declining a bit now, but people of all ages are sick, deaths are not only recorded among the elderly, which means they have also been treated in hospitals before. It is very important to maintain that chain so that the number of people hospitalized continues to decline, ”said D. Razmuvienė, warning that mutations in the UK virus also pose a significant risk.
Lithuania in second place in terms of mortality
We remind you that Lithuania ranks fourth among European countries evaluated by the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC) in terms of new coronavirus infections in the last two weeks, Lithuania ranks second in terms of mortality . According to the data updated by the center this Thursday, the morbidity at two weeks in the country reaches almost 1,004 cases per 100,000. population.
According to this indicator, the first in the list of 30 countries is the Czech Republic, where during the same period 100 thousand. There were almost 1,513 cases per capita, followed by Ireland with 1,254 cases and Slovenia with 1,172 cases. In the last two weeks, 100,000. There were 345 deaths from COVID-19 in Lithuania. According to this indicator, Lithuania ranks second on the list. In first place, Liechtenstein with 573 deaths per 100,000. population. The best indicators among the countries evaluated by the ECDC are Iceland and Finland.
In Iceland, 100,000. There have been 48 new infections and 2.8 deaths in the last two weeks, and 63 deaths and 9.2 deaths in Finland.
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