Experts have assessed the grim situation in Lithuania: the peak of the coronavirus has not yet been reached

Stankoon: No need to fool yourself

Professor Mindaugas Stankūnas from the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences (LSMU) provided some statistics to the Seimas members. He noted that the number of people who died in the last week corresponds to the number of Seimas members: 142 people died in one week from COVID-19.

“Everyone can take a seat and see how many places there are, how many people we have lost in a week due to illness. There is no need to fool yourself, this number will definitely increase,” said M. Stankūnas.

According to the professor, after the first measures of the second quarantine were announced in Lithuania, another 150 people were infected.

According to M. Stankūnas, it is necessary to reduce the infection rate.

“Having 3 thousand cases every day shows that many people have recently been infected with the virus,” said the doctor.

According to M. Stankūnas, the Lithuanians did not restrict their mobility enough, so the virus has a chance to spread.

“It is unfortunate that the statistics collected by the NVSC are not perfect and we do not know much, but in a report from our expert panel, statistics were provided showing where the virus is spreading. We see that the main spread of the virus occurs in the family, at work, in personal health institutions, nursing and treatment institutions and educational institutions ”, said the professor.

He also spoke about research by researchers who found that restricting small gatherings, closing educational institutions and restricting the local movement of people helped reduce the number of new Covid-19 infections.

“The latest study … shows that these measures work very strongly,” emphasized M. Stankūnas.

The LSMU professor has pointed out that the closure of non-essential businesses also has repercussions.

“It can have an effect from the minimum: 3 percent. Up to 49 percent. It can be a powerful tool to manage a pandemic,” said the professor.

Zemlys – Balevičius: the top has not yet been reached

Data expert Vaidotas Zemlys – Balevičius told Seimas members that the situation has only been deteriorating since October.

“We see that since October we have a roller coaster and there is no negative growth. (…) If we continue to have such a situation, there will be nothing good, ”said the expert at Seimas.

V. Zemlys – Balevičius stated that the proportion of positive research in Lithuania last reached the recommended indicator of 5 percent only in October. Since then it has exceeded the recommended limit.

“We are seeing steady growth and no improvement since early October,” he said. The speaker was ironic about the fact that Lithuania has already joined the “club of unfortunate countries”.

He said peak cases have yet to be reached.

“Are we already at the top of the restrictions or have we already reached the top? The answer is no. Because the deaths continue, “explained V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

“People who are infected now will start to die over Christmas and New Years,” he said.

“It just came to our knowledge then. But those deaths should have scared us 2 weeks ago, we had to act sooner. If the cases drop now, we will save lives,” said the expert.

He said that the only way out was to test the population.

The expert called for preparations to be made for the possible introduction of a state of emergency, as it is a lengthy process.

“We must have a plan B, for the introduction of a state of emergency, the Seimas must begin to consider everything. (…) Because the current measures may not help, we need to do something else. Because if we do not introduce it, we pay the price of death, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

He understands the economic losses, but urges “no illusions”

Professor Vytautas Kasiulevičius from the VU School of Medicine also shared his data. He stressed that the next two weeks in the country will be “critical.”

“These are the measures, the directions that are applied around the world at one level or another,” the professor spoke about the newly introduced measures.

Speaking that he understands the economic losses caused by the pandemic, V. Kasiulevičius called for “no illusions”. According to him, Lithuania is facing a wave of excessive mortality, which is also linked to other diseases.

“Doctors must already make decisions today to save patients,” emphasized V. Kasiulevičius.

“I want to say that congestion in the health system is directly related to the number of new infections. People must stay home until the end of the vacation unless they have the necessary visits to receive health, wellness or psychological services. Also for those people who work in essential services ”, said the professor from the VU School of Medicine.

According to him, in the event of such a spread of the virus, it is first necessary to protect health professionals.

“The state must take care of the testing capacity. Now the proportion of positive tests is too high (…) and care must be taken so that the vaccine is available as soon as possible,” said the professor.

The system is at its limit

Professor Laimonas Griškevičius presented the situation in personal health care institutions to members of the Seimas.

According to him, they bear the greatest burden in handling the coronavirus pandemic. At least 7 percent of all new cases enter treatment facilities, of which about 10 percent are treated in intensive care units.

“If the number of cases continues to grow, we need at least 500-700 more inpatient beds in the near future,” said L. Griškevičius.

The expert assured that a year ago the coronavirus was not yet known in Lithuania, so the reorganization of the system affected everyone.

“A year ago we did not have any coronavirus problems, the health system was balanced to treat other diseases. (…) Around 25 to 30 percent of the resources are dedicated to treating the coronavirus. This very rapid reorganization has an impact on the entire system, “said L. Griškevičius.

“The interruption of all personal medical care has already turned into death. (…) The excess mortality is twice the official number of deaths from coroanavirus. Obviously, the system is at the limit of its capabilities. There is simply no more opportunities to increase beds and staff, ”the doctor told the Seimas members.

For his part, Dr. Paulius Skruibis pointed out that the coronavirus pandemic is having a particularly negative impact on the population, but stressed that the restrictions adopted are necessary.

“We have to understand that mental health is negatively affected not only by these restrictions, but also by the fact that we lose 30 citizens every day, and 3,000. become infected. It cannot help but affect, “said P. Skruibis, urging” not to drown in disputes. “

Šimonytė cautions: if we do not follow the restrictions during the holidays, we will have to wait a long time for positive changes.

Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė also addressed the members of the Seimas. She seconded the experts who spoke.

“I know there are different interpretations and before the ruling went into effect, the main issues were how to avoid the restrictions set out in the ruling. I want to repeat once more: the situation is very serious, the tests do not reveal the real situation, because the laboratories are overcrowded and the number of positive tests is too large for him to tell us anything “, said I. Šimonytė.

According to her, the risk of infection is everywhere. Therefore, I. Šimonytė emphasized, it was necessary for the Government to make strict decisions on the management of the quarantine.

“The goal is to reduce the number of new cases to the point where we can reintroduce traditional controls, adding new testing options to the arsenal in the meantime and gradually beginning to receive vaccines,” he said.

I. Šimonytė emphasized once again that the improvement of the situation depends on the behavior of the society. If the population follows the instructions, the prime minister said, the number of new infections can be expected to reach 500 to 700 by the end of January.

“If the requirements were not met during the holidays, if people decided that the holiday was more important than the health and life of their loved ones, then in January we would have a new fall and we would have to wait another month for that decrease” said I. Šimonytė.

The vaccine is expected to be approved sooner

The Minister of Health, Arūnas Dulkys, also addressed the members of the Seimas. The politician recalled that the cases are people.

“We often call it cases, but these are not cases, but people,” Health Minister A. Dulkys addressed the Seimas members.

The minister said that more than 900 people have already died from coronavirus.

“Doctors have already run out of words, trying to demonstrate to all of us the approach of the limit from which we will have to choose what to treat. A total of 933 people have already died, I don’t know how many will be when we finish this meeting, ”said the minister.

A. Dulkys hinted that there is also a crisis of hope: The European Medicines Agency promises to approve the Pfizer vaccine on December 21.

“But not just until the vaccine arrives, but when the right amount arrives, we need to focus on working together,” he said.

A. Dulkys recalled the 3 aspects described above.

“First, we must do everything possible to ensure that all cases are traced and that those in contact are isolated within 48 hours. Today we do it in 3-4 days or more. Second, without reducing the speed of the tests, the proportion of positive tests should not exceed 5 percent, today we have 22 percent. The number of cases in which we can already say that the system is really manageable should reach 200 “, recalled the Minister.

A. Dulkys emphasized that all of these indicators must be achieved and maintained for at least 7 days.

“It will not be the end of the war, but it will be a sign that we are again in control of the situation, not the situation for us,” said the Minister of Health.

New 3,159 cases, 30 deaths

Last day 3,159 new cases of coronavirus were confirmed, 30 people died from COVID-19, the Department of Statistics said on Thursday.

1669 patients recovered on the last day.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, 103,000 people have been infected with COVID-19. 28 people, 56 thousand. 518 – still sick, 45 thousand. 113 – recovered.

A total of 933 people died from coronavirus in Lithuania and 464 people died from other causes.

Last day to investigate 11 thousand. 862 samples for suspected coronavirus, the total number of samples analyzed since the beginning of the pandemic is 1 million. 461 thousand 923.