experts assessed the need for sanctions and their impact in Lithuania



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The plane, carrying more than a hundred passengers, landed at Minsk airport after Belarusian air dispatchers reported the suspected explosive on board the plane. This information was not confirmed later. To take over the ocean liner, the Minsk regime had sent a fighter jet. As a result of this incident, the European Union countries closed their airspace to Belarusian planes and asked the airlines to stop flying over the country.

R. Pratasevičius, 26, one of the founders of the opposition information channel Nexta, was included in the list of “persons involved in terrorist activities” by the Minsk regime last year. The channel itself was declared “extremist” and ordered to be blocked.

A. Pratasevičius is accused of organizing mass riots. You can be sentenced to up to 15 years in prison for this.

Sapega was arrested on suspicion of committing crimes in August and September 2020, as defined in various articles of the Belarusian Penal Code. Minsk has published a video in which Sapega says he has edited the Telegram channel “Belarusian Black Book”, which publishes data on the country’s security forces.

Landing a plane is an act of terrorism

Marius Laurinavičius, chief analyst at the Vilnius Institute for Political Analysis, did not doubt that we can call such behavior terrorism in Belarus.

“It was completely obvious from the beginning, this is an act of terrorism, because any hijacking of a plane is an act of terrorism,” said M. Laurinavičius. “The fact that it was a plane was confirmed not only by the politician, but also by the head of Ryanair itself that hijacked the plane.”

Speaking of other interpretations of the incident, the political scientist was categorical: “This can only raise questions here for the Russian or Belarusian regimes or their supporters.”

True, the policy commentator pointed out that the aircraft landing operation could have been planned even outside Belarus.

“In my opinion, everything that is happening here and this act of terrorism is not planned in Minsk, but in Moscow, and it is part of a larger criminal game, namely the Kremlin. They are currently trying to build relations with it. Western world in this way, mainly with the United States. And that increase in tension, I compare it with the Caribbean crisis during the Cold War, considered the expert. “The current criminal regime in the Kremlin is convinced that the West will not resist this confrontation and that the first one will retire and thus will win that war “.

Kidnappings are feared

Representatives of the Belarusian diaspora warn that the Lukashenko regime is planning a series of kidnappings in Lithuania and Poland. Olga Karač, director of the human rights organization Nash Dom, spoke about possible crimes on lrytas.tv.

“If it is about removing the trunk, it is likely that the embassy of Belarus, or the embassy of Russia, is involved. Because there were also Russian citizens sitting on that plane.” It is not clear if they are occasional people or employees of certain structures, ”testified a human rights activist at a protest on Vilniaus Street.

Legal assessment of the incident

Deputy Attorney General Gintas Ivanauskas noted that the incident in Belarus must be assessed in accordance with international law and that such an analysis of the situation will take time.

However, the lawyer pointed out that it is necessary to distinguish between valuation differences: “There is a political evaluation and there is a police evaluation, they are different things.”

“Maybe we will not rush to connect these things with each other,” continued G. Ivanauskas.

Meanwhile, former Justice Minister Gintautas Bartkus says the course of the investigation is complicated by the fact that the crime was committed outside of Lithuania and by non-Lithuanian citizens.

However, the lawyer also looked at the other side of the coin: to carry out these studies ”.

European Union sanctions

European Union leaders are already discussing the response to the actions of the Lukashenko regime. It is agreed that new and harsher sanctions should be adopted.

The Bank of Lithuania predicts that after the application of new sanctions to Belarus, Lithuania’s losses in the next 3 years would amount to only 0.9 percent. GDP.

“It would be difficult to change that load in the short term. But let’s not forget that geography is very convenient for us: Lithuania’s most important advantage was pointed out by economist Marius Dubnikovas.” It is an ice-free port that not everyone else in the north and a civilized European Union where we can do business. “

Political scientist M. Laurinavičius also spoke about the need for sanctions: “Sanctions are necessary and must be even tougher.”

“We must react in the same way that we would react to any terrorist act, in this case a terrorist act committed by the State. It deals with both economic sanctions and airspace bans and all possible measures to stop terrorists, ”said the observer.

Following last year’s presidential elections last August, which the opposition and western democracies consider rigged, Belarus has been rocked for months by unprecedented mass protests. The winner of that vote was authoritarian leader Aliaksandr Lukashenko, who has ruled the country with an iron fist for nearly three decades.

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