Expert: Putin did not greet Lukashenko but handed him a list of demands

Putin said nothing about the protests that broke out across Belarus, sparked by clear evidence of electoral fraud and official figures, and which stemmed from an unprecedented campaign of support for opposition candidate Sviatlan Cichanouskaya ahead of the presidential elections. Nor did he mention the subsequent brutal crackdown on the protests.

Russia’s southern neighbor Ukraine has drawn attention to the unrest and called for “dialogue”, and the European Union has condemned the protesters for the violence of bloodthirsty officials.

But Moscow remained largely silent, clearly expecting to see the struggle between a quarter-century authoritarian leader and a growing number of citizens who oppose Lukashenko’s unfinished rule.

“Moscow, like most others, thought that Lukashenko would remain in his post for many years. However, this puts Moscow in a difficult situation.” This is not a big problem, because first we have to draw conclusions, “he explained Mark Galeotti, Russian Security Services Expert at the Royal Armed Forces Institute, London, RFE / RL.

During the 26 years of Lukashenko’s rule, the economic stability of Belarus has been based on billions of euros. de facto Russian subsidies, including a steady supply of crude oil. Minsk bought this oil at a discount and refined it so that it could continue to export to Europe as a petroleum product.

However, there was increasing pressure on Lukashenko to offer more in return. In 2018, Moscow began to raise energy prices to finally match the market price for exports, thereby cutting off a vital tool that revived the Belarusian economy and pushing it into a severe recession that brought Lukashenko’s ratings, a phenomenon. which was eventually compounded by public outrage. due to inadequate government response to coronavirus.

Even before the current wave of protests, the leader of the authoritarian regime felt strong pressure from Moscow on a state allied with Russia, whose agreement in the documents had essentially existed since the 1990s. This merger would take place in exchange for compensation by the collapse of energy prices.

Putin’s congratulatory message called for closer integration into the Alliance and closer cooperation in the format of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, regional political, economic and military organizations. Such a scenario may be increasingly difficult for a politically weakened Lukashenko to resist. According to reviewers, the concise message seemed more like a to-do list that will strengthen ties with Russia, rather than a warm welcome.

„V. Putin did not congratulate Lukashenko as much as he reiterated his commitment to integration and integration, “Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, told Twitter.

[SENSITIVE CONTENT]“They knelt down and beat me with hands, legs and shields. I said goodbye to my family in my head, ”said this man who was intimidated by the police. pic.twitter.com/l7pZFFdDbC

– Franak Viačorka (@franakviacorka) August 12, 2020

Observation and sniffing closely

Cichanouskaya’s supporters disagree with the official election results, which show he raised less than 10 percent. vote and continue planning protests in Belarus. But Moscow seems to be watching and waiting, in part to see how Lukashenko and the security apparatus that supports him will react.

Mr. Galeotti highlighted the active cooperation between the Russian and Belarusian security services. Moscow is closely monitoring the mood in Minsk and is carefully analyzing the chances of the elite’s surrender, a situation in which the armed forces and power structures would turn to protesters.

“I imagine Moscow is trying to monitor the situation closely and sniff to see if the security forces will remain loyal, because it is a matter of utmost importance,” explains Galeotti.

A leader known to the Kremlin, especially fighting for his survival at home, may be less evil than a reformist president who is wary of Russian patronage and prone to integrating into the West, even if Cichanouskaya and his opposition leaders are largely anti -Moscow.

And the geographic position of Belarus, a country sandwiched between Russia in the east and the European Union and NATO in the west, could ultimately benefit Lukashenko if he fails to garner real support or faces a major challenge from either of. the sides.

“This situation, a geopolitical dividing line, will help weather any storm as long as Russia and the West do not trust Lukashenko any less,” he said Aug. 10. The comment was written by political analyst Maxim Samorukov, an employee of the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Cepkal establishes the National Salvation Front of Belarus

Valery Cepkala, a former candidate for the presidency of Belarus who has moved abroad, announced on Wednesday the establishment of the National Salvation Front.

“I announce the formation of the National Salvation Front of the Republic of Belarus,” the former head of the high-tech park told the Telegram correspondence platform.

According to him, the objective of the Front is “to mobilize the Belarusian people to fight against violations of the Belarusian Constitution and [prezidento Aliaksandro] Lukashenko’s violent seizure of power “.

Opposition politicians noted that the Front will fight for the preservation of sovereignty, democracy and freedom of the country, in addition to defending the democratic option of Belarusians against counterfeiting.

In July, the Central Electoral Commission of Belarus refused to register Capkal as a presidential candidate, arguing that the number of signatures collected by citizens who supported his candidacy was insufficient. The politician appealed the decision to the Supreme Court, but the appeal was dismissed.

Later, Capkala went to Moscow with the children for fear of arrest. His wife Veranika remained in Belarus, but also left on Election Day. In early August, it was reported that V. Capkala had arrived in Kiev.

Militia shoots at protesters

The Belarusian Interior Ministry said on Wednesday that militias had fired on protesters in the southwestern city of Brest, allegedly defending themselves against armed attackers.

For the third night in a row, there have been protests in Belarus against the results of Sunday’s presidential elections, which the opposition considers rigged. Fierce protesters clashed with security forces during these demonstrations.

“The Brest militiamen were attacked by a group of aggressive citizens with metal bars in hand. The warning shots did not stop them. To protect the life and health of the workers, weapons were used to [užpuolikai] he would be injured, ”says the Interior Ministry report, adding that one of the protesters had been shot.

Ministry spokeswoman Olha Chemodanova said the militia used weapons because “warning shots in the air” did not stop the protesters.

About 340 thousand. The population of Brest is located in the southwest of Belarus, near the border with Poland.