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The experts pointed out scenarios A, B, C and D that would allow the imposition of quarantine restrictions. According to the expert group, the current peak of coronavirus infections and the epidemiological situation should gradually improve.
“Therefore, we propose to the Government of the Republic of Lithuania to start considering the application of social bubbles in Lithuania. Link the stages of implementation of the social bubble with the epidemiological situation and the levels of quarantine prepared, ”says the expert’s recommendation.
Create an opportunity for single people to communicate
This is the most severe scenario pointed out by experts. As one of the members of the expert council, Professor Ramunė Kalėdienė, told the tv3.lt news portal, we still live in the conditions of this scenario. Still, experts, even in the strictest conditions, suggest a little to ease the ratio of people.
The Council recommends a social bubble approach and, in the stricter D scenario, allow a support bubble to exist. At present, communication between more than one household is not possible under quarantine requirements.
The support bubble makes it an exception for two households to communicate if there is only one person or only one adult in a household and in cases where there is a disabled minor or an adult who needs constant care at home.
“The social support bubble is the communication of one person’s home with another home to provide emotional and practical support to people experiencing increased stress from isolation,” experts suggest.
Professor R. Kalėdienė said that due to the holidays and the different scope of the tests, the curve for the number of infections is jumping, so it is still difficult to assess the real situation of the pandemic. Still, according to the interlocutor, a clearer picture will emerge this week or in the coming days.
“My optimistic opinion would be that the quarantine is probably working. Because we also see this by looking at the mobility data, people actually move a lot less and I think the quarantine measures are really sufficient at this time,” said R. Kalėdienė.
Debates about the introduction of a state of emergency or curfew have been heard in public space on several occasions in recent weeks. According to the professor, such cardinal measures are not necessary.
“In the current situation, I would not really tighten the measures. It is important that we continue to take into account and comply with the current restrictions. If we see that the acceleration of the differential in 14 days will definitely decrease, less than one, it can be assumed that we are moving gradually towards that best scenario, ”said R. Kalėdienė.
Stores would open, communication would be released
That best scenario that the professor talks about is marked with the letter C in the recommendations of the expert board. It could be applied when 100 cases exceed 100 thousand. population for 14 days.
In this scenario, the primary and secondary education process takes place in classrooms, with non-grocery stores opening their doors, limiting customer flows. Scenario C foresees a two-household bubble that would allow up to 10 people to contact.
Scenario B is even milder, when after reaching 25-100 cases 100 thousand. population in 14 days, possible transition from national restrictions to location, quarantine for activities that promote the greatest proliferation.
In this scenario, the activities of health and social care institutions are not restricted, cafes are opened restricting the flow of customers, live services can be provided and even meetings of up to 100 people are allowed with security measures. The activities are renewed in museums, cinemas, theaters, galleries and sports competitions with spectators can be held.
In scenario B, a three-household bubble with a maximum of 15 participants would be allowed.
Experts suggest that in scenarios D, C and B, it should be possible to apply restrictions between municipalities if the epidemiological situation so requires.
According to Professor R. Kalėdienė, it is still difficult to say clearly when we could move to scenario C or even B, especially considering new variants of the virus, which are much more contagious.
“Fortunately, it seems that we do not have them in Lithuania yet. But we will never know what unpleasant news that virus will transmit to us. I would think that if everything moves as it is now and we will consciously maintain it. [reikalavimų], we could also think about it in February. But so far it is very difficult to predict anything, “said R. Kalėdienė.
Can we relax in the summer?
The last freest scenario indicated by the experts is A. In less than 25 cases, 100 thousand. population in 14 days, with a positive test ratio not exceeding 4 percent, and with an effective testing and contact tracking system, most restrictions can be lifted, experts say.
This means that there are no restrictions on educational activities, catering establishments, shops and services. Depending on the epidemiological situation, restrictions may apply when traveling to foreign countries or when entering Lithuania: border control, traveler tests, but the movement of people within the country is not restricted.
In scenario A, meetings are allowed, entertainment is allowed, but traffic flows are limited. This scenario, pointed out by experts, is very similar to the situation we experienced last summer.
“We have some very positive factors: we have vaccines arriving, although with interruptions, and slowly. We have a growing number of people who have been sick. And we have a third positive factor: in the summer, these viruses are less frequent. I’d be inclined to think we’ll have the same summer as last year, I think we’ll really control it [situaciją] until summer. I have such an optimistic opinion here, ”predicted R. Kalėdienė.
The Advisory Council of Experts makes proposals to the Government on the management of COVID-19. It is made up of doctors, representatives of medical institutions and scientists.
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