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The full report in English can be found here..
Russia’s leadership hopes that the global epidemic will force the West to focus on domestic politics and economic problems. The pandemic is expected to lead to populist and extremist movements in these countries, which will undermine the value-based institutional unity of Western societies.
Russia is ready to ignite these trends, so in 2021 Moscow will carry out operations to deepen the divisions among Western societies, including at the level of the European Union (EU), according to the report.
According to Estonian intelligence, Russia will seek to discredit Western-made vaccines against COVID-19. With defamatory companies, Russia hopes to create a more favorable position in the world market for its vaccines, as well as appear to be the first of the world’s major powers to find a way out of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Russia’s long-term goal is to lift and ease EU sanctions in exchange for no concessions.
Joe Biden’s presidency in the United States will not change the Kremlin’s agenda regarding the United States, it will remain contentious, according to the report.
Russia’s strategic priority is its neighborhood, especially Ukraine and Belarus. However, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020 has shown that multipolarity will be achieved in Russia’s “backyard” as Turkey establishes itself in the region. In addition, China is increasing its influence in the region by investing in Central Asia.
“The side effect of multipolarity: Russia must acknowledge the growing influence of Turkey and China in the neighborhood,” write the report’s authors.
According to intelligence, Russia’s neighborhood policy has not changed, does not contribute to the establishment of democratic principles and free elections, and new crises are likely to emerge in the region in the coming years, posing a direct and indirect threat to the security of Estonia and Europe.
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