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The Bloomberg news agency has developed the largest database of COVID-19 vaccines made worldwide; on that basis, more than 119 million doses of vaccine worldwide. Officials in the US, like Anthony Faucis, assume that 70-85 percent will need to get vaccinated. population so that the situation returns to normal. As Bloomberg’s Vaccine Tracker shows, some countries are progressing much faster than others, targeting 75%. target with two doses of vaccine.
Israel, the country with the fastest vaccination campaign in the world, will vaccinate 75 percent. its population in just two months. The United States will reach this threshold around the new year of 2022 (although by this indicator, say, North Dakota could surpass the state of Texas in six months). Since vaccination occurs faster in wealthier Western countries than in other parts of the planet, the world will have to travel this path for seven years if vaccination continues at the current rate.
Since vaccination occurs faster in wealthier Western countries than in other parts of the planet, the world will have to travel this path for seven years if vaccination continues at the current rate.
Bloomberg’s calculation model, or calculator, offers an instant call over time to assess the situation in light of current vaccination rates. The model uses the most recent average data on ongoing vaccinations, which means that as vaccine volumes increase, the time it takes to reach 75%. threshold, short.
Estimates will be volatile, especially at the beginning of vaccination, and temporary interruptions can skew the figures.
For example, the target date set by New York this week was briefly postponed seventeen months after a snowstorm disrupted vaccination (now back to the projected 13-month target).
The situation is similar in Canada, where vaccination rates have halved in recent weeks following reports of late vaccine deliveries. Based on the latest vaccination rates in Canada, it may take more than ten years to reach 75%. limit. Such calculations could serve as a warning to Canadian politicians and health officials, but that does not mean that the country is doomed to live in conditions of limited social contact for ten years. Canada has ordered more doses of vaccine per person than any other slu, and its vaccination rates are expected to accelerate over time.
Vaccination rates should accelerate as more vaccines become available on the market. Some of the world’s largest vaccine production centers in India and Mexico are beginning to rotate. According to Bloomberg, there are more than 100 contracts in the world for more than 8,500 million. purchase of vaccine doses. Only a third of the countries have just launched their vaccination campaigns.
The path to herd immunity
Vaccines protect against COVID-19 within a few weeks of vaccination. But if only a handful of people are vaccinated in society, the virus could continue to spread uncontrollably. More and more people are getting vaccinated. Groups create a collective defense against the virus, so individual infection foci will disappear rather than spreading to an outbreak. This concept is known as herd immunity.
The scientific community defines differently the period during which such herd immunity is achieved. Does it already have a noticeable effect on the extent of the spread when sufficient numbers of people protect themselves from it? This can be accomplished before 75% are fully vaccinated. persons. Others describe such immunity as a breaking point when breakouts can no longer be sustained. For example, even if a measles outbreak occurs in an unvaccinated community, herd immunity prevents the infection from spreading outside the country.
How we do the calculations
Currently available vaccines must be vaccinated in two doses to complete vaccination. Our calculations are based on two doses of vaccine per person in the population, but without drawing a line between the first and second doses. Such segregation can distort the level of daily vaccination and is not available for more than 20%. the countries whose data we track.
The new vaccine, developed by Johnson & Johnson, has recently shown positive results with a single dose of the vaccine in a large-scale clinical trial. If this vaccine is approved, we will adjust the number of doses required according to the respective market share of each country.
The vaccines are not licensed for use in children; these studies are still ongoing. Our so-called calculator includes children as part of a population in need of protection. One criterion not covered by the Bloomberg Calculator is any level of innate immunity that may result from recovery from COVID-19. The worst affected areas may need lower levels of vaccination to prevent large-scale spread. Although there is evidence that people with the disease retain some level of natural protection, it is unclear to what extent this protection is and for how long. Vaccination is still recommended for people who have recovered from the disease.
This calculator is the latest Covid-19 Tracker calculation model from Bloomberg. The forecasts are updated daily and are based on data on average vaccination rates collected from 67 states and US states and territories. Countries can be excluded from the calculation when they have only reached the initial stages of vaccination or if they rarely provide up-to-date information on your vaccination rates.
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