Erdogan has cornered: everything will depend on success in Libya.

What do these five states have in common? In this particular case, we have to talk about May 11. its joint document on Turkey’s violations of international law, including the transfer of arms to Libya despite the UN arms embargo and drilling in Cypriot territorial waters. Ankara’s sharp rhetoric and the variety of objects that achieved their goal very clearly show the enormous isolation that Turkey has to endure due to the adventures of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Libya and the eastern Mediterranean, writes nationalinterest.org.

Libya’s growing military footprint at Ankara is the result of Erdogan’s efforts to offset a failed attempt to establish Muslim Brotherhood-related governments in Syria and other regions of the Middle East and North Africa. Since December 2019, R.T. Erdogan has provided military support to the National Cohesion Government (NSV), which is recognized by the international community in Tripoli and the international community recognizes that it controls western Libya. Libya is particularly important to Erdogan as it gives him the opportunity to put pressure on Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, countries with which Turkey fiercely fights for geopolitical influence across the region.

Being on the battlefield also gives Mr. Erdogan a chance to demonstrate his Neotomanian ideology: Libya holds an important place in the hearts of those known as worshipers of the previous empire and the conquest of Italy in 1912 as a painful defeat, seeing the current conflict as an opportunity to retaliate.

Libya’s important role in Erdogan’s regional strategy makes the USSR and its Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarray even more important to the Turkish president. The main rival of the USSR is the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA), led by General Khalifa Haftar, and supported by Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and unofficially France. In April 2019, he almost managed to settle in Tripoli.

Kh. Haftar’s victories on the battlefield forced the USSR to ask for Turkish military support in December, and material aid and Turkish advisers began to flow into the country. Subsequently, the Turkish parliament even confirmed a one-year commitment to deploy troops in Libya.

Since January 2020, at least four cargo ships sent by Turkey, loaded with military equipment destined for the USSR, have docked in Tripoli and Misrata. According to reports, there are currently Turkish military personnel in Libya and 83 Bayraktar TB2 drones made in Turkey. By exporting them, Ankara violates the UN embargo. In addition, Turkey made at least 4,000 flights to Libya. Syrian fighters with USSR forces recruited from various ranks of Sunni fighters under Ankara. Among them, as you have learned, there are completely young soldiers who are only 14 years old.

With the intervention of R. T. Erdogan, the wave of war changed and the front of the conflict began to move south, away from the capital. USSR forces regained control between Tripoli and the border with Tunisia in the western area on May 18. occupied the air operations base at the Vatia and advanced towards Kh. Haftar stronghold in Tarhuna. May 21 The heard threat to the LNA to start the largest air force operation in Libyan history and the declaration of all Turkish targets as potential targets are not enough to bring success back.

Although the USSR R. T. Erdogan supports ideological and geopolitical objectives, the economic component must not be forgotten either. The hydrocarbon resources of Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean play a central role in Ankara’s model of thinking about the region. In January 2019, Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority established the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum in Cairo.

France has also expressed its desire to join, and the United States would like to be granted permanent observer status. Although Turkey becomes even more isolated due to its ambitions and actions, R. T. Erdogan sees the USSR as a key ally who can help undermine this expanding partnership to curb its maximalist ambitions.

In pursuit of its objectives, in November 2019, Turkey signed an agreement with the USSR on a maritime border to create a maritime corridor between the two states that extend from the southwest of Turkey to the northeast of Libya and cross the claimed area for Greece and Egypt. In addition, Turkey furthers ambitions for its strong economic role in post-pandemic Libya: the Turkey-Libya Business Council predicts that Turkey could increase its market share for its products in the war-torn country from 13 to 30 percent today.

From a formal point of view, Turkey’s support for the UN-recognized Libyan government should not be monitored. However, despite UN support, the USSR, even four years after its establishment, remains a rather shaky multi-faction coalition, unable to extend its territorial control beyond specific areas in western Libya. It is also important that, according to some reports, there are jihadists among the fighters who support the USSR, raising concerns that extremists may take control of Libya’s oil fields.

Despite the accompanying success of Turkey on the battlefield, Ankara still has a long way to go before it can completely defeat the LNA, as the front line is a long way from Kh. Haftar fortification areas in eastern Libya.

The support provided by Turkey to the USSR and F. al-Sarraj is in line with the support provided by the United Arab Emirates and Egypt to the LNA and Kh. Haftarui The arrogant general is seen as a powerful barrier to the spread of political Islam in Libya, although the ultra-conservative Madhalites and sasfafistas form a fairly large group in the LNA. United Arab Emirates supports Kh. Haftar only escalated when operations began in Tripoli: Abu Dhabi, like Cairo, then violated the UN-imposed arms embargo. The Abu Dhabi account includes more than 850 air strikes carried out in support of Kh. Haftarui It is estimated that from mid-January to mid-March, the UAE Kh. More than one hundred arms shipments were shipped to Haftar (the total amount is almost 5,000 metric tons).

More recently, companies operating in the United Arab Emirates have contributed nearly 11,000. tons of fighter jet fuel in eastern Libya, in violation of embargo rules. The United Arab Emirates has reportedly sent thousands of Sudanese men to fight in Libya. While the United Arab Emirates can certainly be called the most devout Kh. As a Haftar supporter, the warlord in the mid-1980s is backed by Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and even Russia, according to a new UN report, which sent 800-1,200 mercenaries to the war-torn country, serving in the famous Vagner group.

With the influx of foreign aid, the military conflict was soon compounded by a fierce war of words. April 30 The United Arab Emirates has strongly criticized Turkey’s goals in Libya, saying it “is categorically opposed to Turkish military interference” in Arab affairs. In response, Turkey replied that the United Arab Emirates is supplying coups d’état to Libya by sending arms, military equipment and mercenaries.

May 12 Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has reinforced the accusation by saying that the United Arab Emirates and Egypt are “trying to destabilize the entire region.” Cavusoglu did his best to make his stabs in the UAE particularly accurate. “If you ask what is destabilizing the region and what is causing the chaos, we would say that Abu Dhabi is undoubtedly doing it,” said the Turkish foreign minister.

The military conflict in Libya between local factions and their respective supporters concerns not only the control of Libya and its resources, but also the future of the Middle East and North Africa, as well as the potential role of the Muslim Brotherhood in the region.

Given that the causes of fierce hostility are not purely ideological, that the political survival of governments and their leaders is being addressed, a constructive solution can hardly be expected that could lead to a rapid end to the civil war in Libya or to the end of the armed conflict, even in the face of a pandemic.

Therefore, European countries on the other side of the Mediterranean, which have largely chosen the role of observers for the Libyan civil war, apparently should face yet another wave of humanitarian consequences and refugees brought on by the protracted conflict.

The EU promises to avoid the recurrence of the Syrian scenario

The European Union is doing everything possible to prevent a recurrence of the “Syrian scenario” in Libya, stressing that the conflict in the North African state has no military solution, and the Community is cooperating with all parties in the Berlin peace process, an anonymous EU official said Thursday.

“Libya is increasingly becoming a ‘mediator conflict’ scenario, which in itself is always a cause for concern,” said an official on the eve of a video conference by the bloc’s foreign ministers.

“We are in contact with all the named countries (Russia, Turkey, Egypt and others) to, firstly, stop the interference and, secondly, stop supplying weapons,” he said.

According to the official, similar conflicts in the world are on the rise, and the situation in Libya can be compared to the situation in Syria “because the composition of the actors is similar.”

“Our absolute goal is to prevent Libya from descending into the same hell that Syria descended on a few years ago,” said the EU official.

Libya will be the center of attention during a virtual meeting of EU foreign ministers on Friday. The situation in the country, according to Brussels, “remains extremely tense and continues to deteriorate.”

The EU is active in Libya, participates in the Berlin process and maintains daily contacts with the UN, which is an “umbrella” for joint efforts, the official said. According to him, Brussels encourages the parties to the conflict to reach an agreement.

The Community has also launched Operation IRINI in the Mediterranean, the main task of which is to implement the United Nations arms embargo against Libya through air, satellite and maritime resources.