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Belarus has become unrecognizable in recent months. The country has not seen such humane civic activism for decades. Tens of thousands of people gather for opposition rallies, and Lukashenko’s rhetoric and behavior show that the current government fears the fear of imminent change, experts say.
According to the Vesna Center for Human Rights, at least 1,1,000 people were detained in Belarus during the May-July protests. people, 200 of whom were sentenced to prison. Opposition officials, bloggers, journalists and even businessmen had to leave the country.
“It is impossible for us to stay in Belarus at the moment because we are an easy target for the KGB,” Liberation told one of the journalists who had to leave his homeland. – Many of my colleagues were arrested and many went, for example, to Vilnius or Warsaw. I think I will be more useful if I write something from abroad than being in jail. “
Covid-19 contributed to Belarusian political activism
Such repression is the government’s response to the unprecedented mobilization of the people brought about by Lukashenko’s policies against Covid-19. Due to the constant denial of the threat and open delusions about preventing the disease through the use of vodka or working with a tractor in the field, the president of the country has been known for several months as a supporter of those who consider the coronavirus as “mild flu”.
“Lukashenko has shown incredible contempt for his own people,” said Valeria Kostiugova, an analyst at Naše mnenije. – He transferred the blame to the families of the victims, he blamed the dead, he did nothing to prevent the lack of respirators in hospitals. After all, for the first time in Belarus, a crowdfunding campaign was used, with more than 300,000 funds raised for hospitals. euros. People have realized that if there is a problem, the government does nothing, so they must act together and achieve a result. The first experience of joint actions and encouraged them to work ”.
Lukashenko himself has consistently emphasized his country’s victory over the coronavirus, despite criticism for the country’s failure to take austerity measures. Late last week, he even admitted to “having a mild form of coronavirus” to demonstrate his belief that “only people in poor health are seriously ill.”
It was unlikely that he would be successful, as he did not appear in public for 5 days later, and on Tuesday in his most important pre-election speech before the country’s elite in the hall, he looked in bad shape, which was also noted by local observers and the Russian journalist Ksenia Sobchak.
“Aleksandras Grigorjevičius often coughs and sweats; in the context of rumors about his illness, it seems scary,” he wrote on his Telegram channel.
Not only that, his address to the nation was originally scheduled for August 3, but had to be postponed for a day for unannounced reasons.
The arrests show distrust in their own system
The arrest of several opposition presidential candidates (businessman Sergei Tichanovich, whose wife Svetlana later took over the nomination, and politician Viktor Babarika) Lukashenko no longer feels so confident after having “met the standard 80 percent “of the votes.
“Today, it is already clear that his main opponent is S. Tichanovskaya. And what the electoral commissions, the local vertical, the specification will be like. Services – nobody knows. This is a new, uncertain situation, and Lukashenko is going through a lot. And that is why he himself no longer believes in the electoral machine, which always gave him a reliable result: 80 percent. Therefore, he gets rid of the main opponents, he does not allow observers to the electoral commissions. He does not invite to foreign observers. It is quite obvious that he himself does not believe in the real victory announced by the state media, “said Belarusian political scientist Valerijus Karbalevičius.
Lukashenko suddenly found himself embroiled in a conflict with Russia
A few weeks before the start of the elections, the Belarusian KGB structure arrested 33 strikers from the Russian private military company Vagner, who were “resting” in one of the sanatoriums near Minsk.
Lukashenko accuses the Russians, along with others who have not yet been arrested, of about 200 mercenaries who came to the country of planning to provoke riots in the country before the elections. According to him, the Russian strikers acted “together with the opposition.” Tichanovskaya called the accusations “tales of the Maidan for grandmothers.” According to the opposition candidate, who has become the leader of the opposition, nobody wants blood and the people are already tired of the constant political oppression in the country.
During previous parliamentary elections, Lukashenko intimidated the nation with “maidan”, but later became more concerned about the massive unrest that was supposed to plunge the country into “Ukrainian chaos.” This time the chosen tactic to intimidate the Russian strikers.
In Russia itself, Lukashenko’s decision was received coldly, despite later assurances that “Belarus and Russia will remain its closest allies.” Former Prime Minister Medvedev has openly stated that these are “electoral games that cause resentment and sadness.”
In the days leading up to the elections, Belarus promises to begin the physical launch of the Astrava nuclear power plant. This will be another chance for the country’s only president to collect political dividends so far, telling his compatriots how “we will live this now” and emphasizing the economic importance of the Russian-funded project.
According to political scientist V. Kostiugova, Lukashenko has disappointed many Belarusians in recent years, in addition to failing to guarantee quality medical services, free education and salary growth:
Despite feverish attempts by the Belarusian president, popularly known as the “cockroach”, to turn the election results in his favor in every way possible, he is fighting, as before, to keep control in his hands.
“It just came to our notice then. It can be lost after 26 years. The president is a contract employee,” Tichanovskaya pointed out to Belsat’s observation that a fair election would mean a loss of power for Lukashenko.
Earlier, tv3.lt announced that the Belarusian police had unexpectedly arrested 33 employees of the private Russian military company Vagner. Authorities said more than 200 traffickers may have come to Belarus to “destabilize the election campaign.” Those detained for terrorism have been prosecuted. Russian experts say that the mercenaries have become hostages in political games.
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