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The so-called AUKUS partnership, which will help Australia acquire several nuclear submarines, led China last week to warn of an arms race in a region torn by territorial disputes over sea stretches. Since then, two leading members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Indonesia and Malaysia, have voiced similar concerns.
Such caution is understandable, especially as both President Joe Biden and Australian leader Scott Morrison last week identified the deal as necessary for stability in the India-Pacific region and mentioned a willingness to work with the ten-nation bloc. from Southeast Asia. Both Indonesia and Malaysia have experienced collisions with Chinese ships in the South China Sea, a vast area where Beijing has claims for oil and fish resources.
ASEAN is working to balance relations with the world’s largest economies, relying on the power of the United States to prevent Beijing from pursuing regional hegemony, even as countries in the region become increasingly economically dependent on China. VICTIMS risks changing this equation, increasing the likelihood of a confrontation between the United States and China, which could have implications for economic and national security.
“To avoid China’s regional hegemony, countries must undertake diplomatic and military action, which will inevitably lead to more military tensions and clashes,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund. “Southeast Asian countries may have to choose between the least threat.”
Less sense
In recent years, with the deterioration of relations between the United States and China, it has become increasingly difficult for the countries of India and the Pacific to maneuver between the two superpowers. The Donald Trump administration tried to force them to abandon the use of Huawei Technologies Co. equipment in 5G networks, and China used trade repression to deter their interests, especially against Australia.
Countries like Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines may see “less sense” in forging security ties with the United States while trying to maintain relations with Beijing, says former Australian diplomat Natasha Kassam, current director of Public Opinion and Foreign Policy at the Lowy Institute. Program.
“There is a high risk that VICTIMS will exacerbate instability in the region,” Kassam said. “Australia hopes that increased capacity and deterrence will ensure a regional order conducive to its interests, but cannot rule out the possibility of an arms race or the rejection of regional partners.”
At Sydney airport on Monday, Morrison said he wanted to “build a more secure and stable world” before leaving for Washington to negotiate with US President Joe Biden. Along with Japan and India, he will also attend the first live meeting of Quad Security Partnership leaders at the White House.
While Morrison has been trying to reassure France in recent days, Australia’s ambassador to ASEAN has issued a lengthy statement saying that the country’s support for Southeast Asia “remains as strong as it has been so far” .
VICTIMS “will allow a more efficient exchange of technologies and opportunities. This is not a defense alliance or pact, “the statement said.
Indonesia was the first country in the region to criticize the agreement, emphasizing that it was “deeply concerned about the current arms race and projections of power in the region.” Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob later expressed concern that the VICTIMS could cause other powers to take more aggressive action, especially in the South China Sea.
Singapore only hinted that it hoped the agreement would “contribute constructively to peace and stability in the region and complement the regional architecture,” while Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said in a statement with his Australian counterpart that he recognized the right. from Canberra to buy new subs. relations “with all the countries of the region.”
North Korea has also intervened, warning that the VICTIMS will foment a “nuclear arms race”, even though it is self-sufficient in nuclear weapons and has been threatening the stability of the region for many years.
Rory Medcalf, a former Australian diplomat who wrote the book “India-Pacific Empire,” says he believes the deal is “something ASEAN will welcome.”
“I think we will see great players like Japan, India and South Korea welcome SACRIFICE,” said Medcalf, a professor at the Australian National University. “Hypocritical criticism from China and North Korea and predictable stability concerns from Indonesia and Malaysia do not mean a negative response from the region.”
Express concern
India will have to consider another armada with nuclear submarines in the Indian Ocean, and “this would allow the Quad to make claims on the seas,” said Uday Bhaskar, comedy commander and honorary member of National Maritime. The quad, whose priority is to combat China’s growing military might, met in Washington on Friday.
“Still, responsibilities are likely to be shared, and for India, this would mean that areas from the Persian Gulf to the Straits of Malacca would become its main supervisory area, while others could oversee the vast waters of the southern Indian Ocean, “added Bhaskar.
Negative feedback from Southeast Asian nations could be a “way of expressing concern for the VICTIMS” for an independent foreign policy, but also in the hope of benefiting from security cooperation with Australia and the West, said Shahriman Lockman, senior analyst. from high school. for Strategic and International Studies in Malaysia. He also noted that senior Malaysian officials have told him that the country would benefit from a stronger Australian navy.
Indonesia’s anxiety over JUMPs reflects broader concerns about political decisions by major powers that make it feel powerless, says Evan Laksman, senior fellow at Jakarta’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
“The more decisions of this type are made in the region that seem to bypass ASEAN or Indonesia in particular, the stronger the impression that Indonesia is just a strategic bystander,” he says. “It is not a pleasant feeling, but we also know that we cannot offer anything more.”
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