Doctors predict the consequences of the coronavirus: the third wave will become a chronic disease

Restrictions not only negatively affect the immune system

Sports medicine doctor dr. Dalius Barkauskas is convinced that a pandemic has a devastating impact not only on the economy, but also on people’s health, lifestyle and daily habits. He says that studies by scientists have repeatedly shown that a reduction in physical activity due to imposed restrictions negatively affects the functioning of the human immune system and other organ systems and can reduce resistance to viral infections, and in case of infection the damage may be greater.

“Many of the bans, such as social isolation, home destination, leisure facilities, and health club closures that exist to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, are definitely reducing physical activity. This negatively affects our body’s resistance to infection and leads to a third “paradoxical” wave of growth in chronic diseases such as hypertension, diabetes, obesity, metabolic syndrome. And it is this group of people who are most seriously ill with SARS-CoV-2 infection. I say based on scientific studies ”, says Dr. D. Barkauskas.

He adds that another scientific study conducted by Italian researchers emphasizes that the quarantine will have long-term consequences due to complications and an increase in the number of cardiovascular diseases. Anxiety states, unhealthy daily habits during quarantine and a change in diet for the worse are cited as the main reasons.

Statistics don’t lie: people move less

Let’s start with the simple facts. In one of dr. Studies by GH Tison and other American researchers have evaluated the number of steps as a quantitative indicator of physical activity. The numbers make you think. The authors note that 5.5 days after the announcement of the pandemic, 5.5 percent of a decrease in the number of steps as a global average (287 steps), but after 30 days it was already 27.3 percent . decrease (1432 steps) “, comments Dr. D. Barkauskas.

Meanwhile, the Lithuanian Health Clubs Association (LSKA) has been analyzing Google’s mobility reports since the introduction of the quarantine. The park attendance statistics that are presented in them reflect the physical activity of the population. LSKA President Aurimas Mačiukas says that before the stricter restrictions began, a decrease in physical activity was observed. Recent data, in addition to slightly higher activity over the weekend, report a sharp drop in activity.

“It should be noted that we are not talking about a comparison with the summer when the parks are full. The starting point for this data is winter, when there are not many visitors in the parks. So if we now see a decrease of even more than 30%, it means that people hardly go out to the parks. These data can be interpreted unambiguously: before the introduction of quarantine, people began to move less and less for fear of the virus. And here we are not talking about trips to work or supermarkets, it is here that the decline in mobility has led to the expectation that people will turn to parks. Unfortunately that didn’t happen, people just stopped moving. Even after the closure of health clubs, we do not see an increase in physical activity in public spaces, we are talking about 100 thousand people who have just stopped exercising, ”says A. Mačiukas.

The president of LSKA also draws attention to the decisions of the authorities and the rhetoric of officials who communicate the situation of the coronavirus.

“Those responsible for health seem to be opposed to health, little is said about the need to move. This is a big difference from last spring, when during quarantine he was urged to move, to go for a walk. Now we do not listen to such rhetoric. Undoubtedly, the decrease in the level of physical activity is related to such an attitude “, A. Mačiukas expresses concern.

Freedom to choose physical activity

The president of LSKA agrees that the importance of physical activity only increases during a pandemic, so he places special emphasis on the freedom of people to choose the most suitable form of movement for them.

“Of course, we must all adhere to the principle of responsible behavior and do everything possible to stop the spread of COVID-19. Health and safety are indisputable priorities. Only often do I still have to hear and argue why drastic sanctions are chosen for one or the other sector when the mobility of people is restricted, ”says A. Mačiukas.

“We constantly speak with representatives of health associations or health clubs in other European countries. During the first quarantine period, in the spring, health clubs in many countries were massively closed, but during this second wave, less than the Half of the health clubs in the countries are closed and are generally closed for shorter periods. In the Netherlands, for example, incidence rates have been really high, despite the government leaving the clubs open. Of course, with the right restrictions: visitor flow management, other security requirements. They heard people’s desire to move and decided that staying physically active is a priority for the country, especially now that it’s cold and dark outside. Well, let’s face it. Perhaps one in ten is forced to play sports at home, ”says the president of LSKA.

Currently, health clubs operate in Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden, Portugal, Croatia, Bulgaria, and some other European countries.

He points out that in many countries where gyms are closed, this is not because it is an unsafe place to play sports, but because in this way the authorities want to limit people’s contacts and mobility as much as possible and impose general restrictions on everything.

The European Health Association EuropeActive reports that preliminary data collected by King Juan Carlos University and AWRC-Sheffield Hallam University reveals a particularly low risk level of Covid-19 in health and leisure clubs. When analyzing more than 67 million visits, the average infection rate is only 0.91 per 100,000 visits. Meanwhile, the global average incidence per 100,000 inhabitants is 180.76. Data were obtained from Germany, France, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Norway, Switzerland, the Czech Republic, Poland, Denmark, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom.