Delta strain has started the race against the virus again: teachers already warn about preparing for new outbreaks

As of Monday, July 5, those who come from the countries of the green zone will have to take the COVID-19 test again, those who arrive from the countries of the yellow zone will not only have to take the test before the trip, but also perform the second test later. arriving in Lithuania.

Brazil, India and the Republic of South Africa, which have been included in the countries from which improved measures for the control of communicable diseases are applied, are now included in the gray area, as are all third countries. This means that when you return from them, you will not only have to do the test, but also isolate for 10 days.

Returnees who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 do not need to be tested or isolated under the new SAM rules.

More information on the new testing and isolation conditions can be found here.

Exceptions that do not require testing and are not subject to isolation can be found here.

The more the virus spreads, the more mutations there will be

We spoke with Professor Saulius Čaplinskas, Communicable Disease Specialist, and Professor Alvydas Laiškonis, Infectious Disease Specialist, about what it means to include all countries in the list of affected countries, how to treat those who want to travel this summer and how to you can develop the situation with the delta.

According to prof. According to S. Chaplinskas, the fact that all countries are again recognized as affected by the coronavirus shows that the time race between the virus and the human response continues.

The virus continues to mutate and the new delta strain clearly shows that it is spreading much faster than previous strains. Therefore, the spread of the virus will continue until it is allowed to spread. This requires very few people, only people who do not have specific immunity to the coronavirus. Also, the more the virus spreads, the more mutations there will be.

“Very few people in the world still have immunity to COVID-19. Every effort is now being made to ensure that the virus is prevented from entering the country. And then it is important to ensure that the virus does not spread within the country. .

Where the virus is allowed to spread, it will spread and the purpose of its mutations is to spread as quickly as possible. A case was described in which a woman with AIDS had the active disease COVID-19 for more than 200 days, during which time 30 coronavirus mutations were diagnosed in her body, ”said prof. S. Čaplinskas.

Poor countries still don’t have enough vaccines to prevent the spread, while rich countries face another problem: everyone who wants to get vaccinated and the rest don’t. According to the interviewee, the most important thing is to ensure the vaccination of 2 groups in society, those with the highest risk of contracting coronavirus and those that move a lot, which can make them “super distributors.” The latter can infect many other people.

“When autumn comes, we will know who won this race. After all, the coronavirus spreads not only through the air in the form of droplets, but also through an aerosol. In this case, even masks are ineffective, no direct contact with a person is required. One person may have left a lot of virus in a room, left, and another come and stay there and get infected. At the same time, new strains are dangerous because an infected virus secretes more and others have less to inhale and become infected to develop the disease.

Still, it would be a mistake to re-quarantine and shut down the economy due to new varieties. We have a clear weapon that helps us not to shut down again and lose our lives, which are vaccines. If each of us does not take care of our elderly, parents, grandparents, they run the risk of being in hospital wards. If young people are not vaccinated, the virus will spread very widely and new outbreaks will appear, where one person can infect not a few dozen, but several hundred people, “warned the interlocutor.

Therefore, the only solution that can still help prevent new coronavirus outbreaks with the rapid spread of the delta strain is vaccination. If society vaccinates slowly, we should not expect to have major COVID-19 outbreaks in the future.

Even after vaccination, post-trip tests should be mandatory.

So far, the epidemiological situation in Lithuania shows improving trends. However, more and more countries are sending out alarm signals. The situation is particularly bad in the UK. In recent weeks, the highest number of new cases of coronavirus has been registered there since mid-February.

There is concern that a new wave of disease caused by the extremely fast-spreading delta strain may not peak in a few more weeks. This means that the number of cases will not begin to decrease yet. A UK public health study found that new cases are increasing in all age groups, but are more common among Britons aged 20-29.

According to prof. S. Čaplinskas, the situation in Lithuania should not be expected to be better than in the rest of the world and that the spread of the delta variety will outpace us. Because viruses and humans communicate at the molecular level of language, and we believe that we will not change that.

“If we think that we will talk about the virus with some of our beliefs, we are very wrong. No matter what those beliefs are, if it is a healthy lifestyle that supposedly protects against infections, or disbelief in vaccines, politics and other things. Viruses don’t care, they communicate with cells at the molecular level. We see that some people just can’t understand this. As a result, we leave room for further spread of the virus, “said the interlocutor.

Traveling unvaccinated would be the greatest adventure these days. Those vaccinated should be evaluated that the risk still persists, but is much lower. Unvaccinated or vaccinated, although much less likely, they can bring new varieties to Lithuania again, even if they don’t feel it. Therefore, it is necessary to test.

If a person is really anxious to leave, they should be tested and, in some cases, isolated when the risk is very high.

70 percent. vaccinated populations will no longer be sufficient

As soon as coronavirus vaccines became available, there was talk of at least 70% of populations vaccinated for pandemic control. Unfortunately, it is now increasingly said that even such a large number of vaccinated people will not be enough due to the new varieties.

As explained by prof. S. Čaplinskas, 70 percent. the vaccinated populations would have been sufficient if the virus were in its original state, as this calculation was based on the characteristics of the primary virus. However, the mutations that have spread now are much faster – they enter the body faster, and there are fewer viruses to make a person sick.

“Now the virus has acquired such properties that even 70 percent. vaccinated people leave a chance for the virus to spread. Now about 90 percent is needed. populations vaccinated to stop the pandemic. So far, this is not realistic in any country in the world.

This means that the virus will not be eradicated and will continue to spread. But the more people get sick or vaccinated, the fewer people will be admitted to hospitals and will be able to do their jobs normally. On the other hand, it would be a mistake to think of a new quarantine. We need to prepare for the situation that there will be new outbreaks, we will have to deal with them on the spot, ”said the professor.

The more vaccinated, the less threat

At that time, the infectologist prof. Alvydas Laiškonis says that the reinstatement of all countries to the list of affected countries is a bad sign for Lithuania and the whole world. The interlocutor remembers the example of the United Kingdom, which did not even manage to end the quarantine and extended it again for the delta variety.

“It just came to our attention then. Due to the large number of people who travel, this mutation has also been diagnosed in Lithuania. Although vaccinated are partially protected, it should be noted that we have a large number of unvaccinated. That is why it is scary that we will not have an outbreak again before its time, “said prof. A. Laiškonis.

At the moment, according to the interlocutor, all the predictions are like a guess from the coffee grounds, so, as will happen next, no one can answer. However, additional tests certainly won’t hurt, because the earlier prevention is taken, the more opportunities there will be to protect yourself.

The professor emphasizes that if there were more people vaccinated, there would be no such threat. Therefore, people who do not vaccinate now are causing a double problem: they not only risk a possible disease, but also contribute to the deterioration of the epidemiological situation, since the virus and mutations are spreading in organisms that do not they have immunity.

“Travelers take risks. The desire to travel is not the desire to eat. It is possible to limit your wishes and travel in Lithuania. You never know what you bring. Even at the Olympics, athletes must be strictly isolated. You can definitely refrain from traveling around the world this year. State rules are constantly changing, so a person can get stuck somewhere, “said the infectious doctor.

Previously, Delfi National Cancer Institute (NVI) oncologist physician dr. Marius Strioga has said that the infectivity of the delta strain is more intense than that of the original or British strain. Delta is currently the fastest growing and most effective variety in the world. So it goes without saying that this variety will spread throughout the world.

“The concept of herd immunity is also a mathematical model that is calculated based on the ability of a virus to spread to the extent that an infected person can infect others. Delta replaces 60 percent. 50 percent more effective than alpha and alpha strain. more effective than the original. Therefore, it seems that herd immunity is no longer required at 70%, but at 95%. The larger the population that will have immunity, the easier it will be to control the waves. The virus may start to spread to certain people.

The vaccine should be given to anyone 12 years of age or older who can be vaccinated as directed. 90 percent. it would be ideal. If we have 70%, it is unlikely that we will have a wave like last year. However, the more people who can transmit the virus, the greater the risk from other strains, ”said Dr. Dr. in Health Recipe. M. Strioga.