Data experts are evaluating the first effects of the strict quarantine: the situation is changing very slowly

The data survey released by the Government indicates that the number of new cases detected per day and the proportion of positive investigations among all those carried out in Lithuania decreased.

2021 to January 11:

• The 14-day morbidity rate in Lithuania is 1,040 new cases per 100,000. population (a week ago this indicator was 1,226);
• The average number of new cases in 7 days is 1,780 (2,232 a week ago);
• and the proportion of positive tests is 14.5% (21.7% a week ago).

The indicators are currently the same as in the last weeks of November, the only difference is: the “acceleration of the pandemic” in Lithuania is negative for 10 days and is currently -20%, that is, the weekly average of both the number of cases and the percentage of positive tests has decreased by at least 20%. the previous week.

The situation in hospitals remains tense, with more than 70% of treatment and resuscitation beds currently occupied. The number of deaths in Lithuania (both in total and from COVID-19) has not increased in the last three weeks.

1) Dynamics of cases and investigations – The number of new cases detected per day and the proportion of positive tests among all those carried out on the Lithuanian scale decreased, but we still have 13 municipalities, where at least one of them is increasing.

to. On average, we registered 1,780 new cases in 7 days, the proportion of positive tests was 14.5% and last week we registered fewer daily cases than before.
The last weeks.

second. The number of new cases per day and the percentage of positive tests are decreasing in most municipalities. The number of cases per day also decreased during the holiday period, as fewer tests were done and the percentage of positive tests started to decline just last week.

C. The “acceleration of the pandemic” in Lithuania is negative for 10 days and currently stands at 20%, that is, the weekly average of both the number of new cases per day and the percentage of positive tests has decreased by at least 20% compared to the previous week.

In most municipalities, both the number of cases and the percentage of positive tests are decreasing, but in 13 municipalities the number of cases and / or the percentage of positive tests continues to increase.

Furthermore, the current rate of decline is half that of April-June, when it reached 50%.

2) Mobility in the country it is still much lower than in November, but, except in the festive period, its level is higher than the spring level. According to Google, the time spent at home currently exceeds the spring count.

3) 2021 January 11 morning data Occupation of COVID-19 treatment and resuscitation beds it reached about 70% and, although the total number of patients in hospitals remained stable, we had record numbers of occupied treatment and resuscitation beds at the beginning of last week. The number of more seriously ill patients in hospitals should begin to stabilize between 10 and 14 days after the peak; We can see this trend this week.

4) Died daily from COVID-19 last week about 40 people. According to this morning, the number of deaths (both total and COVID-19) did not increase last week. The downward trend in new cases should be reflected in the death statistics approximately 2-3 weeks after the peak.

5) You have already been vaccinated in Lithuania. in total more than 22 thousand. people. The largest number of vaccinations were administered in the five counties where the organizing hospitals are located. The maximum number of people vaccinated per day exceeded 4.5 thousand.

Trends in the proportion of positive studies

Jonas Bačelis, an analyst at the Statistics Communication and Dissemination Division of the Lithuanian Department of Statistics, also assessed trends in positive results for coronavirus tests.

Evaluating the percentage of positive tests as directed by the person who sent the sample, we see:

1) the general trend that the proportion of positive responses has been steadily decreasing over the last week (and beyond);

2) a significant decrease in the number of preventive examinations (not mobile points) on holidays;

3) a constantly decreasing volume of tests in the group of symptomatic people (since the number of samples analyzed in this group is dictated by the number of people with symptoms);

4) about 45% of symptomatic people who signed up for the study receive a positive test response, about 35% of people who have had contact, and less than 10% of people who have been prevented.

Four scenarios

Delphi Remember that, according to the data of January 11, the incidence of coronavirus in the country is 1005 cases per 100 thousand; population in the last 14 days.

At the COVID-19 Management Meeting of the Independent Expert Advisory Council, prof. Ramunė Kalėdienė and prof. A week ago, Mindaugas Stankūnas submitted proposals for four quarantine restriction scenarios, as well as measures and principles to create bubbles of social support for each quarantine scenario.

Four scenarios are based on the number of new cases per 100,000. population in 14 days.

Scenario A is expected to reach less than 25 cases per 100,000. population in 14 days, with a proportion of positive tests not exceeding 4%. And with an effective contact tracing and evidence system, most restrictions can be removed.

Scenario B: when between 25 and 100 cases are reached, 100 thousand. population in 14 days, possible transition from national restrictions to location. Quarantine applies to the most proliferative activities.

Scenario C is expected when the number of cases exceeds 100 cases per 100,000. population in 14 days, testing and contact tracing measures are intensified and national restrictions are applied. Stronger quarantine measures are applied to the most proliferative activities.

Scenario D is proposed when the number of cases exceeds 500 cases per 100,000. population within 14 days and when the level of spread of infection is reached, when the existing health infrastructure and human resources can no longer provide treatment to COVID 19 patients and the strictest control measures are required.

The Advisory Council is tasked with considering and submitting to the Government proposals for the application and implementation of prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and other management measures for the COVID-19 disease (coronavirus infection) epidemic. The head of this council will be elected on a rotating basis by the members of the council.