Czech Republic, not Britain: Russia is in no rush to send Russian diplomats this time due to Russian aggression

After announcing that the Russian Military Intelligence Service (GRU) was responsible for two life-threatening explosions at an ammunition depot in 2014, the Czech Republic immediately dispatched 18 Russian diplomats out of the country and later ordered 63 more employees than the embassy to leave.

Slovakia showed solidarity with the Czech Republic by sending three Russian diplomats, Lithuania sending two Russian diplomats with two intelligence officers under diplomatic cover, and one by one Russian diplomat.

The European Union (EU) has expressed its solidarity with the Czech Republic, but no coordinated action has been taken. Unlike in 2018, when Russian agents in the United Kingdom (UK) poisoned former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Julia with the nerve paralyzing substance Novičiok. The agents threw a bottle with the remains of the toxic substance in the garbage, killing the Briton who found it.

Then 27 western states sent 123 Russian diplomats in a coordinated fashion.

The same GRU agents, Anatolijus Čepiga and Aleksandras Miškinas, are associated with the Skripaliai poisoning and explosion in the Czech Republic.

However, the cases of the Czech Republic and the United Kingdom are different, says Margarita Šešelgytė, director of the Institute for International Relations and Political Science (VU TSPMI) at Vilnius University. He stressed that a chemical weapon had been used in the UK, the incident was immediately reported.

“Different countries have different red lines. <...> This was the first case of its kind, it received a very high resonance. That is why the solidarity was very high.

The case of the Czech Republic is older: now the investigation has appeared, but the incident took place in 2014. It is more of a hybrid operation than a very clear use of a chemical weapon. ” 15 minutes said the political scientist.

According to M.Šešelgytė, the knowledge about the role of GRU in the Czech Republic was answered by those countries that are “fighting against Russia in the vanguard”.

“It is important that the attitude towards Russia (in recent years – past ed.). Has changed. Various sanctions were imposed and harsh statements were not lacking.” Most countries do not see the expulsion of diplomats as a great advantage among all other instruments, “he said.

It takes a long time to organize a coordinated expulsion of diplomats: In 2018, then-UK Prime Minister Theresa May took two weeks, says Pavel Havlichek, a researcher at the Association for International Affairs in Prague.

And today, EU-Russia relations are even more complicated than in 2018. “At last week’s Foreign Affairs Council meeting, the Czech Republic was only the third item on the list of Russia-related issues: after Navalno and the deployment of troops near Ukraine. ” 15 minutes said Mr. Havliček

In August last year, Russian opponent Alexei Navaln, who had been poisoned with a nerve paralyzing substance and had been treated in Germany for half a year, returned to Russia in January and was soon jailed. In early March, the EU imposed sanctions on Russian officials implicated in the imprisonment.

Claiming that he was not receiving medical assistance, A. Navalnas had declared a hunger strike, which he suspended after hearing the doctor’s anxiety about the seriousness of his condition.

Tensions between the West and Russia have escalated in recent weeks, with thousands of Russian troops stationed in occupied Crimea and along the border with Ukraine. Finally, Russia announced the withdrawal of forces.

In addition, Italy and Bulgaria have recently sent Russian diplomats on suspicion of espionage, Havliček notes.

According to the analyst, Western Europe may not be in a hurry to show solidarity with the Czech Republic and because its diplomacy is more limited than, for example, more than 60 million. British institutions representing the people.

Furthermore, the UK government has sent a united message, while in the Czech Republic, the views of the government and President Milos Zeman on Russia differ. After a week of silence, the pro-Russian head of state publicly questioned the version of the security services that the GRU agents were responsible for the explosion.

“It distorted reality, confused allies, and undermined the government’s arguments. The president’s words ignited not only Russian propaganda, but also politicians who offered an alternative narrative, “Havlichek said.

Germany may not show solidarity with the Czech Republic due to Berlin’s strained relations with Moscow, says Joerg Forbrig, research director for Central and Eastern Europe at the US German Marshall Fund.

“It just came to our attention then. Furthermore, the Skripaliai poisoning was a recent incident, a very obvious incident in a fairly large and important country.

In the Czech Republic, this happened a few years ago, and it is a small partner of the EU, so large countries like Germany may not feel as strong a need to respond. ” 15 minutes Said Forbrig.

“You have little to lose”

According to M. Šešelgytė, Lithuania, taking a strict response to the aggressive actions of Russia, is taking the lead because it has “little to lose” in its relations with Moscow. It is said that good relations are not possible because of Russia’s position: it does not regard Lithuania as an equal partner.

“That leadership is good, it shows consistency. We are the ones who fight for values, we also fight for those countries that suffer from Russia ”. 15 minutes said the director of VU TSPMI.

In announcing the expulsion of the Russian diplomats from Lithuania, Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis stated that he had discussed this step with other NATO partners.

But is the voice of Lithuania heard in the West? According to Forbrig, until Russia began aggression against Ukraine in 2014, statements by the Baltic states and Poland about the Russian threat in Western European capitals were often seen as hypersensitive or even Russophobic.

“Now there is a greater awareness in western capitals that Russia is a threat, that it is necessary to show solidarity with the eastern countries of the EU and NATO.” However, the level has not yet been reached when, after Russia clearly attacked the Czech Republic on its own territory, all of Europe begins to show solidarity, “said J. Forbrig.

According to M.Šešelgytė, on the one hand, the expulsion of diplomats from the country sends a message to Russia and the world. This hampers Russia’s ability to conduct hybrid operations, “because newcomers need to re-establish ties, know the context.”

However, these practices should only be used in serious situations.

“Russia is always retaliating. There are few employees of our embassy in Russia, the expulsion of all means that we are losing knowledge and skills,” said M. Šešelgytė.

The Russian Foreign Ministry announced on Wednesday that, based on the principle of reciprocity, two Lithuanian diplomats will be expelled from the country.