Curiosities of the Russian statistics of COVID-19 – DELFI

In Krasnodar Krai, for example, the number of newly identified virus carriers has hardly changed since May 4, when it was 96. According to svoboda.org, since then this number seems to have stagnated in one place: May 5 and 6 . There were 97 cases in the region, in 7 and 8 days. – 99, 9 d. – 98, 10 d. – again 99, 11 p.m. – and again 98.

David Kankija, coordinator of the Golos (Voice) movement in Krasnodar Krai, and Leonid Volkov, the opposition politician, were the first to draw attention to this phenomenon: the unreliable data is incorrect, unfair. “

Давайте как-то зафиксируем, что сообщения так называемого “оперативного штаба» – это просто фейкньюс в чистом виде, и цитировать их без упоминания о том, что это недостоверные данные – неправильно, нечестно. pic.twitter.com/m6CtTF1nPf

– Leonid Volkov (@leonidvolkov) May 11, 2020

The official government information page on the coronavirus in Russia can be found in other regions, where the number of newly diagnosed cases is also surprising.

According to Volkov, such “islands of stability” may indicate the unreliability of the data. According to commenters on the Volkov registry, the data may also be related to election results in specific counties and republics, where voting irregularities tend to be high, and the election results show that voters unreservedly support the candidates. “necessary”, like United Russia. Representatives

Here are some other regions where statistics on new infections are also strangely “stagnant”:
Lipetsk region. May 5 Here 47 cases of coronavirus were identified. May 6 – 46, May 7. – again on May 47, 8 and 9. – 49, 10 and 11 May. – 48.

And here is a chart (like the one above, made by Yandex based on official data from the Russian government) showing how the number of new cases of coronavirus infection in the Kursk region is growing every day. The region has been repeatedly named by Russian experts as a place where electoral anomalies often occur, when the election results raise suspicions of an artificial increase in the number of votes.

From April 15 to 25. The number of new confirmed cases of coronavirus infection here ranged from 22 to 44 per day.

On April 26, the number of infected people suddenly doubled to 67 people. Since then, this number has been stable daily, not falling below 65 and not exceeding 74.

For comparison, here is a graph showing the daily fluctuations of newly diagnosed coronavirus cases in the Saratov region:

And here are the data for Saint Petersburg:

As physicist and political geographer Sergei Spilkin writes on his Facebook account, graphs of suspiciously “stable” regions lack at least the minimal variation in the data sample, that is, the fluctuations that are characteristic of real-world statistics. .

One version argues that the data may be manipulated in part due to a reluctance to report a sudden increase in morbidity. Instead, officials preparing summaries for federal headquarters can gradually “stretch” the number of infected people, for example, so that they do not exceed 100 new infections per day for as long as possible, as in the Krasnodar region.

Other commentators believe that the stable number of new infections can be explained by the amount of evidence available to regional authorities.

Be that as it may, in general, the Russian data testifies to the flattening of the curve: since May 3, when 10,000 were recorded per day. 633 infected, this number did not drop below 10,000. 102 people (May 5) and did not exceed 11 thousand. 231 people (May 7).

And what are the deaths from COVID-19?

Mortality statistics in Russia still raise many questions: The country has one of the lowest COVID-19 death rates in terms of the number of diagnosed cases of coronavirus carriers.

The number of active cases of coronavirus is constantly growing, according to which Russia will soon become the second in the world.

Russian statistics can be compared to British statistics: both there and around 220 thousand are recorded. infected, but 2,000 died in Russia. people, and in Britain – 32 thousand. people.

Russian media and state officials interpret this phenomenon in different ways. For example, Russia Today, a propaganda television channel, quotes Melita Vujnovich, an official at the World Health Organization in Russia, citing: “Russia’s low death rate from COVID-19 may be due to the fact that” Epidemiological measures have protected the most vulnerable population over the age of 65. meter. people of all ages “.

Vasily Akimikin, director of the Central Institute for Epidemiological Research of the Russian Consumer Surveillance Authority, a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the low mortality in patients infected with coronavirus in Russia can be explained by “early diagnosis and the detection of asymptomatic patients “.

The “Russian phenomenon” may have another explanation: May 8. The Moscow Times published an official page on combating the spread of the coronavirus in the Chelyabinsk region.

Published data shows that during the pandemic, 3 people in the region died from COVID-19 and 7 others from “the underlying disease”, and COVID-19 was described as a “companion” disease. Several interlocutors also told Radio Svoboda that their relatives and acquaintances who had been diagnosed with coronavirus were diagnosed with a disease other than COVID-19.

Coronavir deaths are counted differently in different countries: in some cases they are all included (regardless of the underlying cause of death), and elsewhere efforts are being made to further differentiate the causes.

However, there is simply no contrast between comparing mortality in Russia and mortality in other countries where the number of infected people is similar to that of Russia (such as Spain and France).

The actual mortality of COVID-19 can be seen by comparing the general mortality statistics of a particular country in the same months of 2020 and previous years.

In particular, the New York Times, which found that the overall death rate in 17 European countries, as well as Turkey and New York, in March 2020 April increased significantly compared to the death rate recorded in the same months a year ago.

Sunday, May 10. The Moscow Times noted that according to official data from the Moscow leadership, the death rate in the Russian capital in April was 20%. exceeded the average of the last 10 years in April. mortality rate. According to official data, in April this year 11 thousand died in Moscow. 846 people.

Over the past 10 years, an average of 9,000 people have died in Moscow in April of each year. 866 people. These data may suggest that statistics on coronavirus patient deaths may be higher than official Maxva data, according to the publication.

May 11 In Moscow, just over a thousand died from COVID-19. people: half the difference between 2020 in April The number of people who died in this city and those who died in April of the previous year.

At that time, according to the British newspaper Financial Times, the number of victims of coronavirus in Russia could reach 70%. higher than published in official state data, given the Kremlin’s efforts to curb the spread of COVID-19, despite seven weeks of quarantine.

A study by the Financial Times of all-cause mortality in Moscow and St. Petersburg found that there were 2,073 more deaths in April than in the previous five years.

“Official COVID-19 mortality data for these cities for the same period show only 629 deaths, while the causes of the 1,444 deaths in excess of the normal death rate remain unidentified. Add them to data published Monday by the morning over the 2009 COVID-19 deaths would mean 72 percent. a higher number of deaths, “the newspaper said.

“President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly told citizens that the pandemic is” under control, “despite statements by a medical association linked to opposition activists that the government is hiding the true extent of the medical crisis. Kremlin is demonstrating its fight against the pandemic on the basis of official data showing large-scale investigations of coronaviruses and significantly lower death rates than in other large countries, however, the country’s Ministry of Health has recognized that not all confirmed deaths from COVID-19 are attributed to the coronavirus, “said the Financial Times.

“According to data released by Moscow leaders, we found 1,841 more deaths than the same month average in the past five years. The figure is three times higher than official government figures for 600 coronavir deaths in the capital last month. “The figures provided by St. Petersburg officials indicate 232 deaths above the statistical average, while official mortality statistics from coronavirus show only 29 deaths,” the newspaper said.

“Our estimated 72 percent. The reduction is a conservative estimate, as it is based only on an analysis of above-average mortality in Moscow and St. Petersburg. If other Russian cities and regions also have higher death rates than the rate of official COVID-19 mortality, then the reduction in the number of victims across the country is even greater, “the Financial Times said.

“Experts believe that significant differences between countries’ methodologies for calculating COVID-19 mortality provide higher than normal death rates for a more accurate picture of the actual number of pandemic victims,” ​​the newspaper added.