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In the second half of this year, there was clear hope that the Covid-19 coronavirus would be defeated: a vaccine. But even now, experts are in no rush to rejoice that this year is drawing to a close. 2021 doesn’t seem much clearer than the years that still end.
“2021 is a mystery to me,” epidemiologist Susan Hassig told the Huffington Post. “It all depends on many factors.”
Different scenarios are possible next year: depending on which vaccines hit the market, how quickly the required part of the population will be vaccinated, how the vaccine will work and, not least, how the public will follow the recommendations of health experts.
It also depends on what scientists discover in the process. The situation changes every day, not even the virus itself: in mid-December, British scientists announced the discovery of a new strain and, in November, news from Denmark shook the world about cases of coronavirus transmission from tissues to the humans.
However, despite this uncertainty, experts can already try to imagine what 2021 will be like.
The vaccine’s fight against the virus remains a big question mark
Currently, the market already has, or will appear soon, at least slightly more than 90 percent. vaccines that demonstrate efficacy. Richard Martinello, a professor at the prestigious Yale Newhaven Hospital, points out that a country the size of the United States will take a long time to vaccinate enough people.
He said that even if hundreds of millions of vaccines emerged right now, it would still take at least a few months for the entire population to get vaccinated.
Currently, researchers have found that at least 70-80 percent must be vaccinated to beat Covid-19. populations. And that, according to the expert, means that it will be necessary to vaccinate at least 90%. society.
One of the main threats to vaccination is opposition to “antivirals.” The new vaccines are a source of fear for a group of people, often larger than the coronavirus itself, making it difficult to imagine how countries will be able to vaccinate the right number of people in the next few years, even if they get the right number.
Consulting firm McKinsey also notes in next year’s forecast that the effect of vaccines on Covid-19 virulence is still unclear. This is despite the fact that vaccines are more than 90% effective, but it is not yet clear how they affect the transmission of the virus to other people.
By 2021, it will be clear how many people will need to be vaccinated for universal immunity to develop. In the worst case, it would be necessary to vaccinate at least 80 to 90 percent. populations.
Goldman Sachs predicts that more than 70 percent will be vaccinated by fall 2021. people in developed countries.
Another problem we may face is that adults will get the vaccine earlier than children, but that will not stop the virus. The current policy in all countries is to first vaccinate risk groups and people in direct contact with Covid-19. Michael Levy, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Pennsylvania, believes the virus will not disappear simply after vaccinating these groups.
“We need to figure out how to vaccinate children, because I don’t think the virus will disappear after vaccinating adults alone or protecting the elderly and the most vulnerable,” said the doctor. “I don’t think we’ve figured out what to do with the schools and I don’t know if adult vaccines alone will be enough to solve the problem.”
It is true that historical examples of measles vaccination have shown that vaccinating certain groups of people or certain regions may be enough to prevent the disease from spreading further.
How long the pandemic lasts will also depend on how long people who get sick or get vaccinated develop immunity. It is too early to rejoice or regret this.
We will only know what immunity is formed after vaccination next year, and immunity studies in people who are already sick provide very different data to draw conclusions.
The journal Nature estimates that outbreaks will continue each year if immunity to the disease develops for less than 40 weeks. If immunity develops for at least 100 weeks, we would get Covid-19 outbreaks every other winter.
Masks will become the face of 2021
You can hardly expect any major changes to the recommendations next year. Masks will still be necessary, as is the distance rule, my experts say.
According to Professor Martinello, safety measures like wearing masks or keeping your distance can also help reduce the incidence of influenza or other airborne illnesses.
“I think there will be long-term lessons that we will learn about how to protect ourselves from disease. I think we will see changes that will last much longer even after having the vaccine, “said the doctor.
“The masks are what will allow the public in 2021 to be much more open. It is not an “all or nothing” situation, it is not wearing masks or an open economy, it is the masks that allow an open economy, says Sussan Hassig, an epidemiologist quoted by the Huffington Post. “And if more of us had worn masks, 2021 would have looked very different than 2020.”
In Lithuania, not only the number of deaths from Covid-19, but also the number of so-called “excess deaths” is growing rapidly, according to the latest statistics. In November, according to preliminary data, the number of deaths in Lithuania increased by more than 30% compared to 2018-2019.
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