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For just a couple of years, Lithuania has enjoyed a zero migration balance, meaning that as many people have entered the country as they have left. However, the joy was not very justified, because the compatriots did not return en masse, simply the Ukrainians, Belarusians or Russians came to us.
The economic situation in the country was good and improved, so the worms were not lacking and the depressing memories of 2008 seemed to be a thing of the past. However, in just a month and a half, those memories not only came to life, they also became especially relevant. Quarantine and job loss, uncertainty about tomorrow, cynical behavior by some employers often reminded people of events that took place ten or more years ago.
Many people who consider leaving every day remember the crisis that terrorized Lithuania and the wave of emigration that followed. They fear having to reload their bags. However, experts urge not to rush, be fearless and wait.
According to them, situations are different, lessons have been learned and the hope that people will drive less is unfounded. Lithuanians migrate not only because there is a lack of money, but also because it is simply not good to live here. The only hope is that the internal situation has changed, and that will change people’s reluctance to rush at the first opportunity.
We are migrating because it is not good here
Daumantas Stumbrys, an associate professor at Vilnius University, says it is too early to talk about the future wave of migration, but experience from the previous crisis shows that it can really be flooded. It is true that in 2020 the situation is different from that of 2008, and it can be much more difficult to go abroad to work.
Statistics show that migratory flows did not skyrocket immediately in 2008, but in 2009 and 2019. Looking at the statistics, it can be seen that in 2007 there were 30,000. migrants, 2008 – 25, 2009 – 38, and in 2010 – 83.
However, the problem is that this number of migrants is not related to those who left directly, but to a declaration that has become mandatory. So you must know the context. In spite of everything, the flow of emigration was high and gradually increased.
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“During the recession, migratory flows in Lithuania are increasing. If we don’t have a short-term recession now, it could be that we will have a similar situation. However, now it is still difficult to say what to expect. If this is a long-term consequence, emigration flows will increase. However, immigration flows into Lithuania have also increased. We currently have a balanced migration rate with similar arrivals and departures. “We have been seeing this for a couple of years and we can expect to increase not only emigration but also immigration flows,” said the researcher.
According to him, we can expect not only to seek a better life abroad, but also foreigners from Ukraine or Belarus to move to Lithuania.
“It is also important to know who will be in the country where the Lithuanians want to go. If there will be an economic recession, restrictions, it is a question of whether those directions will be so attractive,” said D. Strumbrys.
It is impossible to say unequivocally that outflows will increase. It is true that many of the people who left after the 2008 crisis have returned. For a long time, this was the main flow of immigration to Lithuania, however the difference between outgoing and incoming was considerable, we lost 30 thousand every year. population That changed just a couple of years ago.
“In recent years, the image of immigrants has changed, most of them are non-Lithuanian citizens. Dominated by Ukrainians and Russians with Belarusians. Our migration was not balanced by the fact that fewer Lithuanians leave or more return, but rather due to the fact that many Ukrainians or Belarusians arrive, ”said D. Stumbrys.
According to the United Nations, Lithuania is the country that has experienced the highest depopulation. The emigration flows were such that not even the countries that faced armed conflicts faced. There are many reasons to emigrate, but the essence is economic inequality. People did not feel well in Lithuania, they did not feel that they could live well.
“However, this is a paradox, because in the European Union we were an example of success, a question of what we are equating.” If we go to the EU, we may be the last, but if we go to the former Soviet republics, we are an example of success. The best proof of that is how many Ukrainians and Belarusians come to us, ”said D. Stumbrys.
Of course, according to him, there are other problems: stress, corruption, mental health problems, the highest suicide rates.
“It just came to our attention then. We have the largest number of, for example, prisoners. The culture of punishment prevails in Lithuania. So to say that people leave alone for the good of the economy is unfair. Suppose we have many people living in nursing homes, institutions. We have many complex problems, “said the scientist.
The indicators of health and life expectancy are not bright either. It is one of the shortest in Europe, and our health has not improved in 50 years.
He assured that the current quarantine could also go through mental health, people would experience even more stress. The unemployed migrate one and a half times more often than those who have a job. Divorce and domestic violence are on the rise.
The numbers will be clarified in half a year.
Sociologist Liutauras Labanauskas, a specialist at the Vilna University Social Research Center, says that we will see a tendency to migrate after this crisis in half a year or a year. It is true that financial failures can really lead to exit. But it will not happen immediately.
“The crisis is global, it will also affect other countries.” The economies of other countries may shrink, the question arises as to whether there will really be enough jobs abroad. The situation there is not good either, so this crisis will affect the most vulnerable people. The group with the highest social risk will suffer the most, “said the sociologist.
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According to him, it is true that Lithuanians are highly migratory. They used to be expelled from their homes because of mistrust of their own country and the attitude of employers towards them. After them, they “attracted” the family, including the grandparents. In this way, the so-called chain migration takes place. This is why those numbers are so intimidating.
It is true that the attitude towards migrants is not good either, according to the sociologist, it has been formed for many years and is shrouded in myths.
“It just caught our eye then. The level of income was very different here and there. But as life improved here, those differences disappeared, though the myths did not. Migration has begun to be considered a dream, and if you don’t go, it stays next to the divided jelly.
Gradually, that myth became blurred and a negative stereotype of the deceased began to form. There was confrontation between different groups, hostile communication emerged and the devaluation of the homeland, ”said L. Labaunauskas, assuring that there was a lack of clarity in the migration stories, which formed rumors.
According to him, migration remains an individual matter. Before leaving, people think hard, consult. This is generally not an easy or quick fix.
“The negative image surrounding migration may encourage those who are preparing to go look around. Perhaps there are opportunities here as well, perhaps we just don’t see them. The greener grass doesn’t necessarily grow far,” said the scientific.
He assured that the number of those who wish to make an important emigration decision will see a good half year. At the end of the year, we can already draw some conclusions from what this crisis has brought us. At the moment, creating realistic plans is quite difficult.
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