Chief Epidemiologist on Deteriorating COVID-19: The Fall in Morbidity Has Stopped, But I Wouldn’t Call It the Third Wave

The start of the third wave of the pandemic was announced by the Department of Statistics on Monday.

“It appears that we are starting the third wave of the pandemic. The Lithuanian trajectory turned around in the space of two pandemic indicators and returned to the old tracks, which were boosted in October. The number of new cases per day is no longer decreasing. , the proportion (percentage) of positive diagnostic tests is increasing. This pattern has been going on for a whole week, but now there is no question about it, “the press release said.

The numbers went up

Lithuanian chief epidemiologist Loreta Ašoklienė says the most worrying thing is the stagnant decline in positive cases and the increase in the percentage of positive tests. And the scope of the investigation has shrunk.

The decrease in morbidity has stopped, the number of new cases no longer falls as fast as we were used to.

Currently, the morbidity rate is 243 cases per 100,000. population in 14 days, a week ago it was higher, but looking at the average of seven cases, that figure is already the same as a week ago: 480 cases.

“The decrease in morbidity has stopped, the number of new cases is not decreasing as fast as before. There is important knowledge of what should be mentioned, what should be said. This is the percentage of positive research that has increased : a week ago we had 7.1% and now we have 7.8% The scope of the investigation itself has decreased.

Therefore, there has been so much anxiety that our morbidity indicators and positive tests, which are the main indicators in terms of quarantine release measures, are no longer decreasing and probably will not allow us to move forward in terms of quarantine regime measures. ” , L. Ašoklienė said at a short press conference on Monday.

Mobility grows, hospitals remain stable

In addition, more people began to move, mobility had increased every day for the past week and practically returned to the pre-quarantine period.

More positive cases occur when people with symptoms are tested. A week ago it was about 30 percent, even a little less, now it’s 37 percent. According to L. Ašoklienė, preventive tests have decreased, it would be desirable for them to be more active and intensive.

The situation in hospitals remains the same so far, only the Monday numbers are traditionally slightly higher. As of this Monday, 993 patients are hospitalized in hospitals, compared to 1,083 a week ago, however, the number of patients who need oxygen therapy or resuscitation has decreased slightly.

The third wave is not yet called

However, L. Ašoklienė is in no rush to say that this is the third wave, that it is too early to talk about it.

“There are signs in terms of symptomatic cases, including the proportion of positive cases identified in terms of increased mobility. These are signs that are alarming and need to be closely monitored. It’s hard to say when it will end. Whether it reaches the third wave immediately or whether we will be able to control it, it is too early to speak. The situation must be monitored very closely, “said the chief epidemiologist.

Whether it reaches the third wave immediately or whether we will be able to control it, it is too early to speak. The situation must be monitored very closely.

He also recalled some of the exemptions that have already been introduced: Obviously, this could also be related to the situation we have today. “

According to L. Ašoklienė, decisions on the release from quarantine conditions are made by the Government, but according to the current situation, no major changes should be expected: the situation is tense.

“So far we have not entered the next stage, we have not reached 100,000 of those 200 cases. population in 14 days and our morbidity rate continues to be higher. But due to all the measures, the deliberations will be in the Government on Wednesday and the Government will decide, “said L.Ašoklienė.

And in the municipalities where the situation has been very good so far, things are changing: in 24 municipalities, the number of cases has increased during the last week, and the proportion of positive tests has increased by more than 32.

“Municipalities could seize the opportunity to test more people prophylactically,” said L. Ašoklienė, noting that more tests would be needed where more cases are recorded.

Vaccines would not be excluded

The chief epidemiologist also commented on the considerations about the different vaccines that are circulating in society.

“Regarding the AstraZeneca vaccine, there are indications that people are rejecting it, but the goal is to vaccinate as many people as possible and judge that one vaccine is better, the other worse, I don’t know … If a person You have the right and the opportunity to be vaccinated, you should do so. And the body should be vaccinated with the vaccine that it has at that time. Whether a person can choose another vaccine will probably depend on the situation in the institution; if the institution has several vaccines, such Maybe I could, but if you only have one type of vaccine, the situation is as it is, “said L. Humilde.

According to her, all vaccines registered in the EU have passed all the studies that have proven to be effective and safe to use, and their side effects are no more common than those indicated on the vaccine leaflet.

“As AstraZeneca is less efficient, this claim is very irresponsible, there is no evidence that it is less effective. It is just a different type of vaccine, it is just as effective and causes immunity in people who have been vaccinated, ”said L. Ašoklienė.

He did not comment on the choice of other countries to vaccinate only the youngest with this vaccine, which Lithuania has chosen to vaccinate based on the description of the vaccine that it is possible to vaccinate people over 18 years of age.

Specialists are more cautious so far

So far, scientists are in no rush to say that we have a third wave of COVID-19.

According to Vytautas Zemlio-Balevičius, data scientist at Euromonitor International, a member of the Government-formed Advisory Council, more analysis is needed to say that the third wave has begun.

“What does it mean to start the third wave? There is a carpet. I think it’s fair to say that something begins. Is this the third wave we can control? When the fairy tales, you can make decisions. That does not mean there will be a third wave. That takeoff begins is indicated by the data, 15 minutes commented.

Ramunė Kalėdienė, a member of the same expert council and dean of the Faculty of Public Health at the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, did not dare to call the dynamics of COVID-19 cases the third wave, at least for the moment.

“It is probably a negative trend, but I would not dare to talk about the third wave yet. This is a very serious issue. We should also look at the number of fourteen new cases per 100,000 days. Population with the hope that it is temporary fluctuations “, 15 minutes she said.

The National Center for Public Health (NVSC) BNS said that the fluctuations observed in certain indicators are a continuation of the second wave of coronavirus.