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As he taught on his social network, there are several scenarios of how a pandemic can continue to develop:
“It seems that with the Delta variant spreading even in places like Israel, where it seemed that the spread of the virus was already under control, the finish line was like a moving target. Or maybe the virus will not go away and you will have to learn to live with it, to live in a new reality?
Living with the virus is one of four possible pandemic scenarios that scientists around the world are discussing. In such a viral life scenario, vaccination limits the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and makes the virus less pathogenic, causing cold-like symptoms.
The second possible scenario is a major “fire”: with low vaccination rates and the emergence of more and more variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus continues to spread, causing COVID-19 disease and other problems.
The third scenario is that some countries may limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the coronavirus will spread only in small unvaccinated niches, similar to measles in Lithuania. Finally, a fourth option would be to eliminate the virus through large-scale vaccination and other infection control methods. However, globally, in terms of viruses, only smallpox has been eliminated so far, and another viral disease, polio, is still on the brink of global eradication. “
The end of a pandemic does not mean the end of the spread of the virus.
However, he added that the end of a pandemic does not necessarily mean the end of the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
“It has already become clear that SARS-CoV-2 adapts (adapts to new conditions) more easily than other coronaviruses and does not require a clear seasonal pattern of spread like other respiratory viruses. Furthermore, SARS-CoV-2 is inherently “slippery”: it can infect other mammals, thus acquiring mutations that facilitate its spread between humans. This may have been the case when a viral mutation was detected in infected tissues in Denmark that could have prevented vaccines. As a result, millions of tissues were destroyed.
It should be noted that the spread of viruses among asymptomatic people makes it difficult to prevent outbreaks and there is no doubt that this will continue to be a problem, ”said the professor.
According to S. Čaplinskas, there are still unanswered questions to determine more precisely what future coronavirus scenario awaits us.
“The most likely scenario of living with a virus with growing ‘fires’. The coronavirus will become seasonal, people will get sick, some of them will be harsh, they may not even be able to save some lives, that is, everything will be will develop in a similar way to as in the case of an influenza infection ”, said the specialist.
More important is not how much is vaccinated, but what.
He noted that all of the following scenarios discussed by the researchers take into account vaccination rates, but computer simulation models suggest that not only the amount but also who is vaccinated may matter:
“By vaccinating vulnerable people, it takes longer for their immune system to clear the viruses. As a result, they can develop viruses that can prevent the effects of the antibodies produced by the vaccine.
The fact that a weakened immune system favors viral mutations is not new and can be illustrated with an example: the literature describes that a long-term COVID-19 infection lasted 216 days in a woman infected with HIV and the SARS virus. CoV-2 Mutated more than 30 times in your body. Vaccinating people who have many contacts and are in regular contact with people outside the home can reduce the rate of new infections. By vaccinating many vulnerable and young people with few contacts, we will not overcome the pandemic.
Israel has started vaccinating people with weaker immune systems with a third (booster) dose of the vaccine. It is very important that people receive both doses of the vaccine when they start vaccination, because only then will they have adequate immune protection against the viral infection that causes COVID-19, especially the mutant variants of the virus that are of concern. However, reversal (third dose of the vaccine) should be unavoidable if this immune protection is weakened. From a virological point of view, “a little protection” (incomplete vaccination) may not prevent viral replication and may facilitate the emergence and further spread of new variants of the virus.
In the context of the coronavirus pandemic, life in the new reality will inevitably have direct links with the health literacy of the population, which means that in the future it will be necessary to know your COVID status: have you encountered the virus ? Sick? Vaccinated? After investigating? Only this will allow it to face the challenges of the pandemic adequately, and perhaps even in a few years. “
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