Can the opening of England prevent a third wave of coronavirus?

The quarantine that has been in place in Britain to date, but is already relaxing, has paid off, along with swift vaccination of citizens, of course. The number of hospital admissions and deaths from coronavirus is declining.

Experts say that states are now waiting for a real race between vaccination and infection. And the key question is: will it be possible to protect people from risk before the virus spreads?

After all, there will almost certainly be more infections; otherwise, the restrictions cannot be relieved. Also, here it is important to evaluate the vaccination plan used in the UK.

Vaccination and infection races

The strategy chosen by London is not to rush with the second vaccination and thus give at least some protection to the people to be vaccinated.

More than 30 million people have been vaccinated in a single dose in the UK. people (44% of the population), but for both, only 3.5 million. people (5.2% of the population). In Lithuania, both doses have been received even more so far: 5.4 percent. population.

Furthermore, the goal is to protect the most vulnerable, the elderly. Only by vaccinating the critical majority will you move down by age group; According to the plan, the most important thing is to reduce the number of deaths and only then stop the spread of the epidemic itself.

This means that the number of infections is likely to increase as the country opens up, especially for younger people who interact more with others and, of course, have not yet been vaccinated against the coronavirus.

In addition, the number of hospital admissions and deaths is likely to increase, albeit less dramatically. Although many older people and people at risk have been vaccinated, not all people have been vaccinated and not all are protected by the vaccine.

Dr Anne Cori of Imperial College London, who is developing models for coronavirus outbreaks, admits that it is unclear what will happen in the coming weeks.

Infections are likely to increase as the country opens up, especially for younger people who interact more with others and, of course, have yet to get vaccinated against the coronavirus.

However, the researcher notes that the dominant British coronavirus strain in the country is highly contagious and therefore advises to wait for a more active spread of the epidemic as the UK emerges from a strict quarantine.

“We will probably see not only more cases, but also more serious illnesses and deaths. Therefore, it is important to vaccinate as many people as possible as soon as possible, so that the third wave can be controlled by removing the restrictions,” said A. Cori .

If mass vaccination slows down but at the same time restrictions are quickly eased, deaths and serious illnesses that plague hospitals will increase.

Imperial College estimates that it will be possible to receive another 30,000 in the UK in June. deaths from COVID-19. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the coronavirus has already wiped out 126,000 human lives.

It is necessary to control the spread of varieties.

The situation is quite fragile even in the face of new strains of coronavirus. And scientists are really concerned about them, especially the mutations first detected in South Africa and Brazil.

The potential resistance of the PAR strain to available antibodies and vaccines is of concern; even vaccinated or virus-infected populations can be re-infected..

It is true that current data suggest that vaccines are still effective in stopping serious infections and deaths. However, in the UK at least, there are fears that the more persistent strains could outgrow the British version and spread more easily across the country.

That is why it is particularly important to monitor these resistant strains of the vaccine at this time. If control were lost, there would be a risk to the overall success of the vaccination program.

According to dr. R. Cori, prevention of imported variants of the coronavirus is simply necessary if we are to avoid a “dramatic increase in infections.”

The Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine is particularly effective in stopping COVID-19 deaths, severe cases, and infections in general.

By the fall, new vaccines that are effective against the mutations should be developed. But until then, scientists say, the number of infections should not be allowed to increase; if there are fewer infections, there will be less chance for the virus to mutate and become resistant to available vaccines.

British health officials are closely watching Israel, the first country in the world to have more than half the population vaccinated against the coronavirus.

This means that real data can be tested instead of test data, and the latest information is that the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine is particularly effective in stopping COVID-19 deaths, severe cases, and infections in general.

Since mid-January, deaths from coronavirus in Israel have dropped by 85 percent, seriously ill patients by 72 percent, and the average number of new daily cases has dropped by 86 percent. In addition, although the quarantine in Israel was lifted more than a month ago, the epidemic there remains stagnant, which means that vaccination is working.

The Israeli government, on the other hand, also fears the arrival of vaccine-resistant variants in the country, which still restricts the entry of foreigners into the country. However, among the unvaccinated population of Israel, new dangerous varieties have not yet emerged.

Johnson cautions: rejoice wisely

England, which opened schools on March 8, removed the mandatory stay-at-home requirement and allowed up to six people to gather outside. Due to these changes, the newspapers called the beginning of the week “Happy Monday.”

While elite sports competitions such as Premier League soccer matches were not canceled during the last quarantine and were held without spectators, non-professional sporting events such as tennis, golf, basketball and swimming will now resume. outdoor.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has expressed his hope that Monday will be the start of a great British sporting summer: people of all ages will meet their teammates and be able to resume their favorite activities.

But in a message posted on Twitter, he urged people to be wary of their new freedoms.

“It is important that we do not go overboard and risk the progress that has already been made,” Johnson said, highlighting the significant improvement in the epidemiological situation, the reduction in infections, hospitalizations and deaths compared to previous years.

“Please follow the new rules carefully so that we can gradually return to normal life together,” he said.

The third phase of the coronavir virus restrictions should begin on April 12. Then the government plans to allow open-air bars, hair salons and convenience stores to open.

Starting in mid-May, it is planned to allow the accommodation sector to open with some restrictions. All remaining restrictions are scheduled to be lifted on June 21, if the situation permits.

Administrations in other UK regions (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) move at their own pace.