Can a new wave and new restrictions emerge in Lithuania? Specialists warn: the situation is heating up

In Lithuania, last week we were able to read mainly in the media about a particularly large jump in the new cases of clashes in neighboring Poland, but it is not only she that faces problems. The World Health Organization records that the number of new cases has increased again around the world since mid-February.

Mr. Stankūnas recalled that in early January there was a peak in morbidity in the world, when almost five million cases were diagnosed each week. Then the number of new cases began to decline. And now, for the third week in a row, growth is showing again.

“Last week three million new cases were detected worldwide. That is approximately ten percent more than the previous week. Growth is observed in all regions. It is the largest in America in Europe, in Southeast Asia , in the Pacific region, where Papua New Guinea is “on fire,” said the interlocutor.

In his opinion, the deterioration of the situation is due to several factors.

“There is a ‘British’ variety that, as we already know, is more widespread. Move other shapes. These are normal processes. People’s behavior also plays a role. We are all tired and it is becoming increasingly difficult to listen to requests for quarantine measures, ”said M. Stankūnas.

Lithuania has not yet “skipped” the risk period

According to the specialist, the time has not yet come for Lithuania to relax and think that all the major difficulties have really passed.

“We have to follow very closely what is happening in Lithuania. It would be an unforgivable mistake to think that the third wave does not threaten us. I am not saying that it really will, but to say that we have already suffered on our own, and that we are no longer threatened by that, it would be a mistake.

Looking at last week’s stats, we don’t really see the waves, there is no need to scare people, but there is paralysis. I still don’t know if it will calm down, as it did before, or if it will change in some way, “said M. Stankūnas.

Experts who will meet with President Gitan Nauseda on Tuesday plan to present more detailed calculations.

The specialist appealed to the conscience of the people at this stage.

“I think the most important thing is that people who experience any symptoms, or suspect / know that they have had contact, do not try to hide it, but rather have tests and listen to the recommendations of specialists. If we ignore the symptoms, that virus will spread.

I would also very much like people to understand that we have all done a lot already, but the numbers are still very high. I spoke with friends in Australia. There, eight cases are detected per day (a country of 25 million inhabitants).

It should be understood that the fight with us is not over yet and we must still take ourselves very seriously. We need to welcome the releases that we have more and more. However, we must understand that with each release, responsibilities increase, ”emphasized M. Stankūnas.

It would allow Astra Zeneca to be vaccinated to a wider audience

The LSMU professor would agree with the statement that it is necessary to broaden the circle of people who could be vaccinated with the Astra Zeneca vaccine.

“Every vaccine means that the virus is being reduced. I think there are groups that are really important for us to vaccinate, such as offering to teachers (who have not yet been vaccinated), medical students who have difficulty learning at a distance, clergy who have contact with people (go to services, go to the sick). There are groups that do not fall into the first priority, but they are important, and I think that many people would get vaccinated, ”said M. Stankūnas.

Inaction is also a risk for politicians

Paulius Gradeckas, an epidemiologist who worked on the team of then-Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis, is convinced that discussions about the Astra Zeneca vaccine will not have a significant negative impact on the pharmaceutical company itself.

Look at the promotions. The shares have fallen, but have risen since the beginning of the year. A stock index generates more profits than vice versa.

For them, the European Union is not their main market. (…) Communication crises on a continent will not end this company as a reliable company ”, said the specialist who is currently deputy director of the Marijampolė Primary Health Care Center.

In his opinion, the “common EU citizen” is the one who has lost the most in this crisis.

“The situation is as it is, the gin comes out of the bag. Society responds inert to messages, but it also becomes inert. Don’t be surprised if everything changes 180 degrees, “Gadeck said.

During discussions about the vaccination process, a specialist who saw the politics behind the scenes warns Health Minister Arūnas Dulkis that inaction also poses a great risk to politicians.

“Dear Dustys, as he liked to carve the Ministry of Health during those four years, now he is probably afraid that someone will trust him too. Unsafe to do. Sure not to.

That must be understood by the controller, who has become a politician: politicians are carved for both that and that. Algis Čaplikas said in 2009, during another pandemic crisis, that “I bought the vaccine, I am bad, I would not have bought it, I would be bad too.” That is the bread of politics. You chose it, but remember that politicians are fighting not to do it, because otherwise you can always say that “we did it because we thought it was the best thing at the time,” Gradeck said.

When talking about vaccination against Astra Zeneca, the specialist agreed that the situation was not good in terms of the attitude of older people towards the vaccine.

“First, they refer to ‘why they changed the order, which was first assigned to an age group and then changed.’ And you can’t reasonably explain to them that more research data has come in. They are convinced that the vaccine is worse for the elderly, “Gradeck said.

Data misunderstandings

The specialist also pointed out the misunderstandings that arise when commenting on the data.

“The president says, ‘Why is there a vaccine stock?’ The government says that “we cannot vaccinate while the vaccines are on the plane.” Obviously they cannot, but the same government, the Ministry of Health, carves us, adds vaccines that we do not have in the statistics and says, “why not vaccines?”

I would be free to turn to the police and say: ‘Officially, the statistics show that we have not used 2,500 vaccines. We have not used 1,200 vaccines and others are missing along the way. Start a pre-trial investigation, find out where the vaccines have gone. “They tell us, ‘why not vaccines?’ But we can’t vaccinate while they’re in the cage, Gradeck said.

He noted that the public does not have much understanding of the data that official officials talk about.

“The minister is happy that so many people have been vaccinated during the day. What numbers do you comment on? Number of entries. His colleagues then release a message that the Astra Zeneca is being vaccinated (although the vaccination has stopped). This is not an Astra Zeneca vaccine, but just a summary of the data at the time.

We as a society have a problem: we are used to action in real time. The data does not go so far that you are vaccinated at the vaccination center and a certificate appears immediately. Even in a state-of-the-art facility, there can be up to eight hours of time mismatch, much less regions.

And then give the numbers and say which regions are bad, do not vaccinate. They are vaccinated, and if the registration comes later or earlier it will not lead to worse immunity, it is important that they are vaccinated correctly so that the vaccine is stored correctly, “said Gradeck.

Hammers

The epidemiologist did not want to speculate on the issue of whether Lithuania has already faced the threat of the third wave, whether it can still catch our country.

“We have not been able to say whether I have avoided (the threat) or the decision makers. Even if it persisted, I still do not abandon my reasonable opinion that it would be very sudden and that the drop in cases would start from May, all the more so that I guess our government’s response would not be proportionate (“hammer through the voter”). “, – commented P. Gradeckas.

The specialist borrowed the picturesque expression expressed in his thinking from J. Baltušis.

“Here is a Lithuanian value of the saying ‘cut the Gordian knot’. In his only book, where he remembers his childhood, J. Baltušis writes about how he treated vomiting. At the time he was serving with a farmer who was a sanitary during the war.

That peasant tried to lubricate the votive with the only grease with antibiotic properties at that time, all the folk remedies were tried and the votive did not decrease in that way. Finally, J. Baltušis bit into something with a larger hammer, that hammer bounced off and hit directly at the voter who was in his face. The scar remained, but the problem was resolved, “Gradeck said.

What does this have to do with the coronavirus and policy makers? The interlocutor explained that sometimes politicians think that “if the strict measures do not work, we will apply even more strict ones.”

Alexander of Macedon thought, ‘It is not my place to wash the Gordian knot now, but I will take it and cross it.’ The scars remain. Scars remain in society. I think the Conservatives also understand why they weren’t in power for eight years after the 2008-2012 rule.

Every government fears unpopularity. I have worked in politics, I know it and I am sorry. A politician can say: “I am not a populist. I came to do the work, I am an accountant. “I really like Excel, but your employer is the public and your currency is the public’s trust,” Gradeck said.

The specialist pointed out that so far the controllers are following their strategy.

“Can we have multiple diseases? Gali. What will the reaction be? Will the measures tighten? This may be because people, especially those with power, tend to use measures that are disproportionate to the current situation,” Gradeck said.