Calls for the migration crisis to be strictly addressed: Lithuania must think about what would be dangerous for a dictator

National security and defense experts discussed the situation at the state border with Belarus on Friday on the “Open Conversation” program on “Knowledge Radio”.

Stankovičius calls for an assessment of the possible consequences of all actions: solutions create problems

Ignat Stankovich, an expert on national security issues, said the unrest on the border could have been predicted by knowing the identity of the Belarusian autocrat Aliaksandr Lukashenko and his dependence on the Kremlin.

“I think it’s not just Lukashenko’s efforts here. Efforts are needed to agitate and make everything fill the traffic. Because it’s a business, people pay a lot of money, that’s what it turned out. At first, it was strange to me. that our ministers said that it was not necessary to think about Lukashenko’s next step, (…) but he reasoned very quickly, “I. Stankovičius spoke about the rhetoric of the ministers.

Without assessing the potential threats, Lithuania, according to him, reacts late to the illegal immigration crisis.

“We are late, but I am glad that we are learning relatively quickly. Nearby, technical measures are needed, but they do not solve fundamentally. (…) The government already sees the need to look at where that source comes from, the country where these migrants come from. ”, Emphasized the expert.

According to him, this is a complex problem, so solutions must also be complex and must be done carefully.

“We have to think about what we can, to what extent and think about that complex solution very carefully. Every solution to a problem creates a new problem in the future, bigger or smaller, so we have to think about what solutions, what problems they will create in the near and distant future ”, emphasized I. Stankovičius.

In talking about this, the expert highlighted speeches on the integration of migrants.

“If we allow a mass culture where the birth rate is much higher and we have a problem with the birth rate, we immediately change the demographic situation in Lithuania. National security is the defense of identity: or we have to change our identity, It will no longer be us, or we have to look at what to do, ”said the specialist.

“It is still difficult to see some steps forward”

I. Stankovičius pointed out that under the Lukashenko regime, it was possible to expect inhumane actions that were incompatible with EU law.

“The technical level has never been created. Now crashing, that’s what we’re attacking for. Maybe not to that extent, but first we had to make that border arrangement. “Lukashenko would not have been so tempted to take advantage of it,” explained the national security expert.

Therefore, according to I. Stankovičius, we must think about how we will solve the problems that arise after our decisions.

“Look a little wider, lift your head from the ends of your shoes, look a few steps forward, it’s hard to get out. I think that was the case here,” he admitted.

However, he said he did not believe that Russia and Belarus were trying to provoke a real war.

“I don’t think Lukashenko is trying to provoke war, I don’t even believe that Russia is trying to provoke war. To start a war, you need to have enough mush,” said I. Stankovičius.

“If your economy is weak, do not get involved in a long-term conflict. (…) Today, Russia has neither the resources nor the strength to participate in a prolonged military conflict. Of course, various conflicts are possible on the border,” he continued.

Call not to be afraid of losing “good, gentle and fluffy face”

Provocations, according to I. Stankovičius, are possible.

“We need to show that we have ready answers for possible steps. This immediately raises questions on the other side,” the expert emphasized.

He also noted that Lukashenko has contact with China, not just Russia, so Lithuania must think about what would be dangerous for the dictator.

“That Lukashenko may be in danger, we should think, turn our heads, how to do it, and I think this matter will be closed,” said I. Stankovičius.

“Let’s lose a good, tender, fluffy face, but it is better to have a face so as not to enter Lithuania illegally (…)”, added the expert.

Former SSD Grina Commander: There was enough time to assess the threats

Former SSD chief Gediminas Grina also said intelligence had repeatedly warned authorities about possible threats from Belarus.

“Until some public events take place, it is not possible to write very extensively what the intelligence has gathered, but I have no doubt that in 4-5 years the classified certificates reflect these problems and, as we know, they are received. by the executive as a whole and members of the Seimas. So, there was enough time to assess these threats and take some precautionary measures, “Grina said.

He gave a picturesque description so you didn’t have to go into a battle first and then figure out what to do.

“If we talk about the intelligence of those countries, I think they know Lithuania better than we do. Let’s not forget that Belarus and Russia are an allied state, I even like to call Belarus a governorate in general, because actually Lukashenko is just an administrator of that territory with some freedoms, because, like our municipality, the municipality has some freedoms, regardless of the central government of Vilnius. “, – compared the former head of the SSD.

Russia and Belarus will not miss the opportunity to take advantage of the mistakes

According to G. Grina, closely following the situation in Lithuania, the Kremlin and Belarus will not miss the opportunity to take advantage of the mistakes.

“They know as much about us as they need to know. They are always waiting for us to take some weak step. It really won’t take you long to take advantage of it. “This migration crisis has shown very well that our legal bases, our commitments to the EU, to the United Nations follow very well,” said Grina.

For hostile states, this, he said, opened their hands to the use of a tool like illegal migration.

“Lithuania has absolutely all the obligations regarding the border crossing, starting with basic food and ending with other things. I have no doubt that Russia is well aware of all our legal incidents,” emphasized G. Grina.

However, he said that despite all the provocations that have occurred, the threat of terrorism has not increased significantly.

“At the moment, I don’t think the threat is very high or heightened, and intelligence practically confirms it,” said the former SSD commander.

“If we talk about the Islamic, Muslim world, it is obvious that the Christian world has no points of contact, there are completely different perceptions of life. I believe that this friction represents the greatest threat to terrorism around the world, because everyone wants to prove its truth, ”commented G. Grina on global challenges.

Former SSD boss M. Laurinkus: something gets done when it breaks

Another former SSD commander, Mečys Laurinkus, also participated in the program and also told other interlocutors that no government had reacted seriously to possible threats from Belarus.

I myself know, I still, even without being in that system, document and understand who writes and warns about what, but there is still a tradition in Lithuania and it is difficult to overcome it. (…) Something is done when it breaks, it runs after an event and no one has changed that tradition, ”he said.

M. Laurinkus recalled that the idea of ​​building a physical barrier, a fence on the border with Belarus, is not new.

“The issue of fencing is not new, it was raised a long time ago, no one reacted then. This had to be done, 2015 was very relevant for western countries. “We watched as observers,” said M. Laurinkus.

He stated that Lithuania did not take Belarus seriously at all.

“Frankly, in the last year, as long as there is a regime, Lithuania despised Belarus from a high point of view, considered it a weak economy, a dependent policy. By the way, this was clearly visible a year ago, when the so-called revolution began. in Belarus, (…) it was already said that autumn would come and he (Lukashenko – aut.p.) would not stay ”, the first one reminded him of the SSD commander.

There may be a disruption in the illegal migration operation, but what follows is unclear

However, Mr Laurinkus is pleased that, according to him, Lithuania has recently started to tackle the illegal immigration crisis with stricter measures.

“Lithuania has already started to catch it, to act quite well. You can see that it is a solid action and, apparently, fruitful,” he said.

Speaking about possible terrorist threats, M. Laurinkus pointed out the need to identify who is who.

“It seems to me that Lithuania has now started to do it very positively, I evaluate them all positively, quite solidly and I think the results will be. I think that Lukashenko and his regime planned that the operation would not last long, it could not continue for long. , because Lithuania is not alone, ”said the former SSD commander.

However, M. Laurinkus pointed out that in the face of illegal migration, Lithuanian institutions oppose each other, so the goal of hostile regimes, according to him, is basically achieved.

“Russia is not interested in the conflict with NATO, no matter at what level. In words yes, but not really interested. I don’t think Russia is satisfied if Lukashenko conducts some operations on his own during Zapad’s military exercises. There may be a breakup, and what will happen next, I don’t know, there will be various scenarios, “added M. Laurinkus.

Kasčiūnas: our border with Belarus can become a border with Russia

Laurynas Kasčiūnas, Chairman of the Seimas Committee for Defense and National Security, pointed out that illegal migration is a hybrid war tool that poses a threat to national security.

“It is natural that we move to that gray area, to these hybrid threats, which blur the line between war and peace. Organizing illegal migration can apparently fall into that category of influence,” said L. Kasčiūnas.

The politician mentioned that Belarus is currently in the process of political absorption: the creation of an alliance with Russia.

“The remnants of Belarusian independence are also being sacrificed, and Lukashenko is essentially selling his sovereignty in its entirety, to survive and prolong the greenery of his regime.” If in the military field Belarus is already almost an independent state and that red button is in Russia, it is also happening in other areas ”, said the parliamentarian.

L. Kasčiūnas emphasized how much Minsk depends on Moscow.

„De facto The 600-kilometer border with Belarus could become a de facto border with the Russian Federation and with various risks derived from it, ”said the president of NSGK.

He did not want to speculate on the reality of the armed conflict on the border.

“We are really examining those scenarios, we are already strategically planning to have an adequate response to one or the other case,” assured L. Kasčiūnas.

Therefore, according to him, it is now necessary to see how the stricter measures that are already in force will work, because even if the Seimas approves it, the role of soldiers working on the border will become stronger.

“It may be enough to not declare a state of emergency, but never say never, that question will always be in the air. If we can stabilize the situation, we can talk about the fact that it is not necessary at this stage, “added L. Kasčiūnas.