[ad_1]
Climatologist Arūnas Bukantis asked if the heat will return and what can we expect.
PHOTO GALLERY. Summer in Palanga
Good day. It’s been raining heavily all week. Can it be assumed that a similar climate will now prevail in the near future?
The cyclones are already raging in the Atlantic, now they begin to move towards Europe and one after another, even in that series and carrying the long-awaited rain.
After all, Lithuania needed logs and already in August of those three dry weeks they actually depleted both the groundwater and the surface water bodies, rivers and lakes, so the rain is really now, I think, as a great advantage and a great joy when it comes to the weather.
Next Monday will be the last day of summer and then fall. So can we assume that when that calendar summer is over, everything, fall, will look us in the eye?
Anyway, maybe you should look at the calendar a lot and not. However, the end of summer is generally calculated as the end of an astronomical summer, this year the equinox is September 22 and then the astronomical summer ends.
And such a meteorological summer ends when the average daily temperature drops below 15 (degrees – ed. past.). It’s now just 15 this week and it is likely to drop below 15 next week, as the average temperature for September and all of September is between 12 and 13 degrees.
Of course, it initially hovers around 14-15 in the first decade, and then drops to the end of 11-12 months, as the nights lengthen and of course get colder. Well, and probably the heat that has been going on now for the last 70 years has even exceeded the 30 degree temperature 4 times.
And is it still possible to reach that temperature, or will it still heat up?
Everyone probably remembers the celebration of September 1, 2015, when a temperature of 35 degrees was recorded in Lithuania, even higher: one-tenth in Druskininkai, still more than 35, but such heat is certainly not expected next week. And it will stay throughout the month, well, such, you could say, that it is already the typical September temperature. Days around 20, at night around 5 degrees even will drop somewhere, up to 10 degrees will drop.
And it should be noted that September is already a time of frost, because September 30, 1993 is registered in Varėna. minus 6 and three decimal degrees of temperature. Thus, we have a practical temperature range of more than 41 degrees, in which the temperature in Lithuania fluctuates throughout the historical period of meteorological observations.
Will the temperature be over 20 degrees? Is it necessary to wait for the summer bob here, perhaps then get up?
Well, also during Bob’s summer, the temperature is usually just close to 20 degrees, but it’s hard to say now what each day in September could be like, because science can’t really make long-term predictions that are detailed for each day. or every night at this time.
Otherwise, the monthly average temperature is expected to be 1 degree higher than the perennial average. This means that the annual average temperature will be 13-14 instead of 12-13. So on those days, especially the first ten days, when the temperature rises to 20-22 degrees, it is very likely, of course.
There are people who are not on vacation and are now just planning a vacation. Is it possible to assume that the weather will be better by the sea, and maybe only in this part of Lithuania somewhere near Druskininkai or Birštonas? Where will you find a better climate?
There are warmer nights at the seaside in September. If, as I mentioned, the temperature in other places can drop to 5-10 and 12 degrees, then at night, by the sea, at Curonian Spit, the night temperature is 2-3 degrees higher.
And the days?
The days are practically the same as in all of Lithuania, because it depends on the cloudiness. And if it is cloudy, and only September is the rainiest in western Lithuania. Precipitation falls around 70-80 millimeters per month. For example, in the center and east of Lithuania only 50-60 millimeters.
Therefore, it is rainier in western Lithuania than in September in eastern Lithuania, but the warm sea and rather warm and pleasant nights, of course, attract more tourists to the coast.
Perhaps it is possible to predict what September 1 will be like?
It is predictable. The Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service has published long-term forecasts up to September, even 4-5 days. This first day is expected to be so changeable, there is still a high probability of precipitation, it really will not be completely sunny. And for that, you definitely have to bring it to this celebration and an umbrella if it takes place outdoors. And right now, this is how the celebrations of September 1 are organized.
The Ministry of Education and Science recommends that schools teach as many lessons as possible outdoors to reduce the number of classes. How much do you think September is suitable for garden lessons?
I think the foggy season starts too, and often the fog lasts until September 11-12, so it’s quite cool, humid, and not always conducive to activities, some lessons, but in the second half of the day, in lunch, really. there is still a high probability of warm hours, because even that higher temperature persists for 1-2 hours if it approaches 18-20 degrees, so there can be such hours.
But of course it is really difficult to plan ahead and create some kind of lesson schedule outside, because even if the rain is longer, it already becomes so uniform, long-lasting and continuous rainfall in September and October. Therefore, there are some fairly moderate or even unfavorable conditions for activities.
Will the rain that falls now help reduce the effects of the hydrological drought?
In general, for the water level to recover in the water bodies, the water content in the rivers would need even the entire rainy season of autumn and snowy winter, then we could have floods in the spring, which is, for so say it, a necessary phenomenon in rivers. This is an important phenomenon. And then we would probably already have a normal water level, runoff.
Such precipitation, which lasts for only a few days, a few days a week, will not fundamentally change the amount of water resources.
Water resources maybe not, and what about fungi? Do you think this will help them in any way?
Fourth and even fifth class fires have been achieved, which is very dangerous for forests, and rainfall, which has now fallen in Lithuania, has reduced the risk of fires, but the moist layer of soil or forest cover remains very thin. It rarely gets more than 4 to 8 inches wet.
But basically these rains and mushroom season gave some precipitation, but it would take at least a few more weeks of rain.
World health experts say this year is a record. Can this also be assumed in Lithuania? Because sometimes it seems like maybe it was a cooler year here in Lithuania than last year.
Last year we had a record and the annual temperature has already reached 8 degrees and nine tenths. So, according to preliminary calculations, there will be no such temperatures this year, but the year was still warm because the winter was very warm, June was very warm, the summer was moderately warm, so we will not have a record hot year.
The world, of course, has also recorded record levels of ice in the Arctic during the 60-year observation period. So the world is heating up and Lithuania is not lagging behind either.
Thank you for the interview.
We invite you to see the whole conversation with the climatologist Arūnas Bukantis in the video.
[ad_2]
