Brief Threats to Allies: What US Withdrawal Plans Will Mean USA For Lithuania

Accusations, surprise and then negotiations.

The first reaction to the desire of the US administration to withdraw 9.5 thousand. American troops in Germany seemed overwhelmed. This was particularly beneficial to Trump critics, who were quick to point out that the US president. The USA, which was criticized in Europe, especially in Germany, not only chose the worst moment for the decision, the anniversary of the Allied landing in Normandy in June 1944, but coincided with Trump’s call for Putin. and calls for Russia to return to the Club of the World’s Most Powerful Countries, from which Russia was expelled after the 2014 aggression against Ukraine and the occupation of Crimea.

In addition to the demands on South Korea, Trump has spared bitter words to other allies in recent years, demanding that they contribute more to NATO “maintenance”, more defense, and strong promises to bring Americans home. Such rhetoric is particularly favorable now, in the run-up to the November presidential election, in which Trump is seeking reelection. However, this is not an unprecedented threat to the Trump administration.

“It is really offensive to expect a US taxpayer to continue paying more than $ 50,000.” The Americans stationed in Germany and the Germans will use their trade surplus for their own purposes, “said Richard Grenell, the then-US ambassador to Germany, in August. from last year.

Earlier, the US Ambassador to Poland, Georgette Mosbacher, wrote on Twitter: “Poland is serving its 2 percent. GDP commitment to NATO. Germany no. We would appreciate the American units coming to Poland in Germany. “

D. Trump mentioned the transfer of units from Germany to Poland in 2018 and June 2019, when Polish President Andrzej Duda visited Washington. Grenell, who later became famous in Germany in a short time for his outrageous statements and non-diplomatic behavior, added that “the point has been reached where the Americans and the President of the United States must react.”

And while there were no significant reactions from the United States: The United States decided to increase its forces in Poland, it was the country’s leaders who did not hide the joy of the possible transfer of American troops from Germany to Poland. Warsaw does not hide such hopes even now.

“I really hope that because of the numerous negotiations we have had, and after showing that we are a strong partner of NATO, some of the US troops currently deployed and withdrawn in Germany will end up in Poland.” The real danger lies behind the eastern border, so the relocation of American troops to [NATO] the eastern flank will strengthen the security of all of Europe, “said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, adding that” the negotiations continue. “It is harsh negotiating tactics that often explain the behavior of D. Trump, who was previously an entrepreneur .

Thousands of troops at various bases.

Such hopeful statements by Poland were not accidentally accompanied by “negotiations continue” and a lack of specificity. In general, there are no specific details on when, which troops can be taken from where in Germany in particular, just reflections. Of the dozens of US military installations. USA In Germany, where about 34.5 thousand are currently deployed. american soldiers

Most of them are concentrated in several important bases, which cover an area of ​​one thousand hectares. The massive Grafenmore base is the largest NATO training center in Europe, and together with the headquarters in Wilsek, Garmisch, they house thousands of US troops along with all heavy equipment, most of which were withdrawn in 2012 by then-US President Barack Obama, but delivered in recent years in response to the security situation in Eastern Europe. Lithuanian soldiers did not train in Grafenvior, from here in the United States in recent years they sent armored columns to the Baltic countries for exercises with Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian soldiers.

Informal deliberations mention the 16th Support Brigade of three battalions that can withdraw from Germany. Deploying such units would be a painful blow to an area already sensitive to US and NATO forces, as such support units allow Americans to better manage logistics flows in the area of ​​operations, serve other combat units by supplying fuel, ammunition, medical supplies and spare parts for wheel repairs.

And although the power of the American forces in Europe is publicly associated with a hard iron fist: tanks, armor, air force, the importance of logistics is immeasurable, without the support of the units, the entire chain of operations can stagnate: technology will not move if it is not adequately and timely equipped; It will last longer. Such units are important both on the ground and in the air.

In addition to the large garrisons and the Stuttgart headquarters, Ansbach, another giant US airbase. USA It is Ramstein, one of the largest air bases in Europe, a US air force. USA In Europe and a NATO headquarters for transportation, special aircraft and thousands of American troops. It is also a transit hub that US operations depend on not just in Europe.

“The loss of Ramstein would significantly undermine our ability to do anything, not only in Europe, but also in Africa and the Middle East,” said Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of the US forces in Europe.

According to unofficial information, another major U.S. facility in Germany, Spangdahlem Air Force Base, may be targeted as a target for a possible reduction of the U.S. force. The 480th Fighter Squadron is stationed here, with about 30 F-16 multifunctional fighters capable of completing Wild Weasel’s mission to break through the opponent’s air defense.

From here, some of the fighters have already been relocated to Lasko Air Force Base in Poland, but the infrastructure developed in Spangdahlem is not as close as in Poland, where Americans lack not only the usual conditions of comfort, but also from schools like schools for American children. , accommodation services for families of soldiers and opportunities to provide Americans, which has already been done in Germany.

Investment in the local economy.

The last reason is one of the main reasons why Poland’s hopes of having even more American troops so far have bounced off the wall of reality. At first glance, this may seem paradoxical: Poland’s support for the United States is strong, both in society and, especially, among those in power. By contrast, in Germany, the image of the United States, and of Trump in particular, has been seriously tarnished in recent years.

For example, a recent survey by research company Pew Research in March showed that 85 percent Americans believe that US bases in Germany are important to American national interests. Germans who think these bases are important to their country’s national interests exceeded 50 percent and 45 percent. Strongly disagree. Young Germans are particularly hostile: up to six out of ten Germans between the ages of 18 and 29 believe that these bases are not good for Germany.

But even if in Poland the support for D. Trump, or at least the presence of American and American troops in the country, is much greater, the warm reception, the friendly smiles do not replace the comforts of a permanent life. The infrastructure of any military base in the United States is the result of large investments, experience and capabilities, and long-term projects.

Despite myths about the need for fast food restaurants and large Coca Cola stocks, US troops can also live outdoors, in trenches or containers, in temporary shelters, as has been demonstrated in both remote areas of Afghanistan and in Lithuania, where from last fall to the end of May this year. A US armored battalion with 500 troops was deployed.

But the infrastructure necessary for long-term deployment is turning American bases into truly small and unique American cities. The investment required for this ranges from a few hundred million to several billion. Dollars

South Korea, for example, covered up to 92 percent. 11 billion funds. dollar project: the largest US military base. USA abroad. At the time, Germany had spent nearly a quarter of a billion euros on maintaining US bases since 2012.

Small towns in Bavaria or the Rhineland-Palatinate have become accustomed to the presence of American troops since the end of World War II: the number of American troops in Germany exceeded 300,000 during the Cold War alone. As early as 2001, the Ramstein and Spangdahlemb bases were estimated to have contributed some € 1.4 billion to the local economy. EUR, creating 27 thousand. Job positions

Such a financial connection is not based on the one-way street principle, and the Germans already know well what it means to withdraw US troops from the country: between 2006 and 2018, the United States withdrew tens of thousands from Germany. Troops have hit the local economy.

Currently, an estimated 12,000 people work directly for US forces. German civilians and, indirectly, the presence of US troops are financially second to both locals and their businesses, from the service sector such as hotels, rentals, other accommodation contracts, product supply to training and leasing of land.

Therefore, talking about withdrawing US troops could mean not only closing some bases, but also hitting local businesses at a particularly sensitive time after a coronavirus pandemic.

In addition to 34.5 thousand. There are still some 17,000 American soldiers stationed in Germany. American civilians who work on bases or live and contribute in one way or another to the German economy. Conversely, Trump’s reiterated desire that other countries, especially those with American troops, not only contribute more to his security, but also pay more for a U.S. military presence, also has the other side of the coin.

“I imagine a European government that would say,” Okay, do you want us to pay? Let’s calculate the cost of Americans staying in the country, “cyber security, police patrols, highway access, environmental damage are just some of the costs that could be passed on to American soldiers,” Hodges said.

Hope will have to be justified

“I think there will be no troop withdrawal.” Trump often makes statements aloud, but does not take action, “said former US Ambassador to Germany John Cornblum. In fact, threats to Germany, which have been taking place for several years, they are increasingly accepted, but at least until now they have had no serious or at least practical consequences.

“However, some damage has already been done to our relationship. What do we show our potential allies and rivals in that message? As a commander, I have always been concerned that we would miss everything anyway, so whatever it is we let’s cut now, whether it’s logistics, intelligence, communications or engineering, we need them, ”Hodges said.

On the other hand, in Poland, where around 5,000 have already been deployed. American troops, it is no coincidence that there is talk of creating favorable conditions for Americans: if the infrastructure could have been built in Germany, why wouldn’t it be possible in Poland, even if the conditions are completely different now? The US investment USA In military infrastructure in Poland it has been growing in recent years, and Poland is not only a faithful ally of the United States, but also a country that has decided to acquire more and more American weapons, while there is still a heated debate in Germany.

Furthermore, it is Poland that is strategically important to Lithuania and other Baltic countries in a military sense. A US-led NATO multilateral battalion is stationed in Orzychia, near Lithuania, which would protect not only Poland but also the Suwalki corridor, a narrow section of the land border that borders Russia and Belarus, in the event of crisis. Any increase in US troops in neighboring Poland would be a positive step in Vilnius and other Baltic capitals.

On the other hand, for several years now, US investment in Lithuanian military infrastructure, from logistics capabilities in Mumaičiai to the modernization of landfills in Pabradė, Kazlų Rūda and, finally, 9 months of rotation of the US Armored Battalion in Lithuania, shows that The United States tends to strengthen its presence not only in the region but also in selected countries. areas, one of which is Lithuania.

The country is not yet fully prepared for the permanent or even rotating presence of an American military unit larger than a battalion in Lithuania: the country’s constitution and infrastructure adaptation works prohibit the presence of foreign military bases, such as 2.2 millions. The € 1 billion rail branch project on the subway is just a drop in the ocean when it comes to the US military infrastructure needs. USA

However, the hopes of Lithuanian businessmen for many years for the appearance of foreign soldiers and their contribution to the local economy have not been broken if such military objects, at least in part reminiscent of US bases in Germany, are seriously considered .

But it would also mean for the host country the need to demonstrate political, organizational, other capacities and appropriate legal and financial commitments: signing legal contracts, improving training conditions, installing residential containers and a gym are just a small part of what It can attract Americans. And we would also have to accept a wave of negative reactions from Russia. The latter country has already stated in Putin’s latest order that such military infrastructure could pose a threat to Russia’s interests and become the target of nuclear attacks in the event of conflict.