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Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to have overlooked this information. By stepping up support for Azerbaijan, which is trying to regain lands lost by Armenian forces in 1994, the Turkish president is putting his relations with Russia at risk.
RT Erdogan’s dominant position is gaining widespread support in his homeland and perhaps altering the desperate situation in the Caucasus, which has lasted for almost 30 years. It could also earn you a vote on the deal. But if it goes too far, there is a danger of a repulsion from Russian military power, which could harm Turkey’s interests even on several fronts.
Putin has long called for a new multipolar world order in which regional powers seek uninterrupted intervention from the United States, but he didn’t mean that.
“Erdogan is really testing Putin’s patience,” said Alexander Dynkin, president of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations at the Russian Academy of Sciences, which also advises the Kremlin. “He is annoying Putin more and more.”
Their relationship was strained even before September 27. the battles that began around Nagorno-Karabakh, despite the Western imagination that Turkey had rejected the United States and other allies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to join Moscow.
Russian-Turkish military, mercenary and military advisers have previously appeared on opposite sides of two major conflicts, Syria and Libya. There is now growing concern in Moscow that the Soviet-owned Caucasus could cross the border, saying Turkey has sent Syrian fighters to help Azerbaijan.
The number of disputes both leaders must resolve and handle is only growing. Russia believes Turkey is pressuring its natural gas giant Gazprom PJSC. Turkey imported 28 percent in July. less Russian gas than a year ago, and imports from Azerbaijan increased by 22 percent. In addition, Turkey will soon open a new gas pipeline that will allow Azerbaijani gas to compete directly with Gazprom for market share in Europe.
October 1 In a speech in the Turkish parliament, RT Erdogan condemned Putin’s call for an immediate ceasefire in Azerbaijan as unacceptable – a call made by the Russian leader in a joint statement with US President Donald Trump and the French President. Emmanuel Macron.
France, Russia and the United States co-chair the so-called Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which aims to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.
In his speech, RT Erdogan stated that the Minsk Group was no longer fulfilling its intended purpose. He also linked the recent resumption of battles in Nagorno-Karabakh with Russia, arguing that it is part of a broader crisis that began with the occupation of Crimea. Russian forces annexed Crimea in 2014 with the outbreak of conflict in eastern Ukraine, which still continues there.
The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan announced on Saturday that they would consider a possible ceasefire, but only on terms that are unlikely to please the opponent.
The predominantly ethnic Armenian enclave and the seven surrounding districts are recognized by the United Nations as occupied territories, accounting for 13.6%, according to Thomas De Waal, a Caucasian specialist living in the UK. Land of Azerbaijan.
Russia and France, meanwhile, say Turkey has sent Syrian fighters to fight for Azerbaijan, a move that could introduce an additional Islamist element to the conflict in which Muslim Azeris are fighting Christian Armenians. Turkey and Azerbaijan denied the accusation.
The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors the death toll in the Syrian war, said on Saturday that 36 Syrian militants had been killed in battles around Nagorno-Karabakh in the past 48 hours, raising the total to 64. Azerbaijan has already been dispatched by 1,200 Syrian fighters, mostly ethnic Turkmen.
“If the direct involvement of Turkish troops or Syrian fighters is shown, the limit will be reached,” Dynkin said. “This is not the multipolarity that Putin wanted.”
Turkey has long supported a Turkish-speaking Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but RT Erdogan’s active intervention is unprecedented this time. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said his country would do even more if Azerbaijan asked it. A large-scale joint military exercise between Turkey and Azerbaijan did not end until August.
Russia is not on the sidelines either. It has signed a security agreement with Armenia and sells arms to both parties. The Kremlin of September 27. has launched at least two talks between Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, but none with RT Erdogan or Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
According to a senior Ankara official, Turkey is far from betraying NATO because of Moscow, but sees itself as the only one trying to resist Russian pressure in the region.
The West has a slightly different view. Although Turkish leaders have never had any illusions about their trade relations largely with Russia, they have left their country vulnerable, shunning NATO allies who might have provided support, says Sinan Ulgen, spokesperson for think tank Carnegie Europe. based in Brussels.
RT Erdogan’s goal in Azerbaijan is to sideline the Minsk Group and break into a new negotiating table, where, according to Ulgen, he hopes to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
RT Erdogan has already used a similar leverage strategy with some success in Libya, Syria and the eastern Mediterranean. But it also carries some risks, as Putin could attack Turkey on any of these fronts if events do not turn out as he hopes and tends to accept.
“Turkey is in a much more dangerous position than it might be, as mutual trust in their traditional alliances has been undermined,” Ulgen said. RT Erdogan’s decision to acquire the Russian “S-400” air defense systems also contributed to this.
Russia’s problem is that, unlike other so-called “frozen” conflicts in the former Soviet space, it has not deployed its own army to control the situation and, unlike Turkey, is trying to maintain relations with both parties, Th. De Waal, author of the book Black Mountain Karabakh.
“As long as there is balance, they have leverage, but they cannot afford to choose which side to support,” he says. “It always seemed like a losing strategy, and now it doesn’t seem to be working.”
Russia may also want to teach the reformist Armenian government a lesson that “anti-Russian policies could lead to a complete cessation of support,” said Moscow-based analyst Arkady Dubnov.
N. Pasinian in 2018. replaced previous pro-Kremlin leaders.
“Currently these two big bears are trying to mark their territory, but Erdogan must be careful not to cross the border,” says Dubnov. “Your state is the main power in the region, but you must not forget that Russia is considered a dominant player.”
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