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Thousands of Russian troops on April 23. With the withdrawal of the border with Ukraine and the easing of the deepest tensions with the United States and Europe since the Cold War, there has been quiet satisfaction in the Kremlin: a very risky game has paid off.
With growing concern in Western capitals about the large-scale mobilization of Russian forces, US President Joe Biden called Putin and offered to meet. This would be the first meeting between Mr. Biden and Mr. Putin. The Kremlin valued the fact that it forced the new administration to admit that it should keep in touch with Moscow as a tactical victory for Putin, according to three sources closely linked to the Russian leadership.
After Biden became president, the White House hoped to put Russia on the back burner and focus on a more urgent priority: a reaction to China. According to a senior State Department official, Putin’s unexpected military maneuver turned those calculations upside down.
In addition to calls by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron for Putin to withdraw troops from the border, the 27-nation European Union was considering possible sanctions in response to any aggression in Ukraine, including sanctions against military capabilities. Russian, according to a diplomatic memo from the Bloomberg news agency.
For the United States and its European allies, a week-long crisis emerged after Russia deployed 100,000 troops to the border with Ukraine. The Russian soldiers with tanks, ships and warplanes were a sad reminder of Putin’s ability to increase tensions in relations. Many years of sanctions imposed since 2014, when the annexation of Crimea took place and support for separatists began in eastern Ukraine, did not force him to change course, even if the already sluggish Russian economy suffered.
The drama, which is heating up here, sinking here, has thrown the Russian ruble off balance: at first, as concerns about the conflict mounted, its value fell, later, as tensions ebbed and flowed.
“Russia’s only instrument to show that it is a great power is force, tanks,” said Gerard Araud, who served as French ambassador to Washington in 2014-2019. period. “This show of force is for Joe Biden, and he says, ‘Don’t forget I’m the power of the world.’
Moscow’s attitude is fueled by a feeling of resentment that the West is determined to weaken Russia and provoke a “colored” democratic revolution to overthrow Putin. In his view, the United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have repeatedly betrayed Russia by renouncing missile treaties and expanding beyond its borders since Putin became the first foreign leader to offer aid to Russia. Washington after 9/11. attacks in the US
“The Kremlin feels like a fortress, under constant pressure from the United States and the West in general. Russia is trying to deter the United States with its aggressive actions, but Washington is responding with even stronger measures, said Oksana Antonenko, director of Control Risks (London). “Without a doubt, we are at the most dangerous point since the collapse of the Soviet Union.”
Each round of equilibrium at the threatening threshold raises the price and increases Russia’s isolation. NATO’s military alliance is getting stronger: member states are increasing defense spending in response to an alleged threat from the east.
Biden’s invitation to the meeting coincided with another round of US sanctions for a major cyberattack and interference in the US elections, which the Kremlin has vehemently denied. The ambassadors of both countries hold consultations in the capital of the respective country within the framework of the policy of expelling diplomats “face to face”.
Biden is trying to adjust America’s stance on Russia after a tumultuous year under Trump, whose stance on Moscow was fueled by his defensive stance on a protracted investigation into allegations of interference in the 2016 crisis. US elections. Biden is taking a tougher tone – he recently called Putin a “killer” – although the US president has not yet finished forming his foreign policy team.
Increasing tensions are hampering efforts by some Eastern European countries to maintain warm relations with Moscow, thereby reducing the already liquid ranks of Russia’s friends.
The Czech Republic expelled nearly two dozen Russian diplomats in April, accusing the Kremlin spies of 2014. An explosion at an army munitions depot that claimed two lives. Relations between the parties have recently fallen to their lowest level in a decade. Slovakia and the Baltic countries, in solidarity with Prague, also sent Russian diplomats. Poland sent three Russian diplomats in support of the US sanctions.
On April 21, the day before Russia announced the withdrawal of its troops, Putin warned the West not to cross Russia’s “red lines” in his annual speech, saying that harassing his country had “become a sport. “. But at the same time, it stretched the olive tree’s side in the strategic security negotiations. “According to the Kremlin, this will strengthen the weight of Russia and offer the opportunity to find common ground with the West,” said Gleb Pavlovsky, a political adviser to the Kremlin during Putin’s first term until 2011. “Ukraine occupies a secondary place here in what regarding the global status of Russia. “
Of course, Russia’s 1.5 trillion depends on energy resources. The billion-dollar economy, roughly twice the budget of the US Department of Defense, is vulnerable to Western economic pressures. While Putin remains widely popular with Russians, his ratings have fallen as the population’s incomes have fallen over the years.
Russia’s treatment of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navaln, who ended a hunger strike 24 days later, is also exacerbating relations. The United States and the EU are demanding his release, while Merkel and Macron raised the issue directly in a phone conversation with Putin.
The Russian president is unshakable. In April, prosecutors asked a Moscow court to recognize the network of regional offices of Kremlin critic A. Navaln and the Anti-Corruption Fund (FBK) that he had created as “extremist organizations”, exposing staff and volunteers to be prosecuted and incarcerated. They were accused of organizing a “color” revolution in Russia at the behest of unidentified foreign states.
One of Putin’s main allies, Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the lower house of the Russian parliament, called Navalna an “American political tool” that would allow him to interfere in Russia’s internal affairs.
This is a painful place for Putin, who is convinced that he was behind the democratic revolutions in neighboring Georgia and Ukraine that toppled pro-Russian allies. In 2011, he accused then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton of sending a “signal” to support Navaln-led protests against his return to power in place of Dmitry Medvedev in 2012.
During a conversation with Biden, Putin raised the question of an alleged conspiracy to organize a coup against Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenko, according to the Kremlin, which is maturing in consultation with the United States. Lukashenko, who has led Russia’s neighbor and ally since 1994, has faced protests from the pro-democracy opposition since the disputed elections last August.
“The practice of organizing coups and planning political attacks, even against top officials, is too much,” Putin said in his annual address. “They went beyond all limits.”
During talks with Lukashenko in Moscow the next day, Putin said that Russia was strengthening cooperation with Belarus on military and common security issues.
Putin is pushing for the United States and its allies to ease their pressure and treat him as an equal partner, said three sources closely linked to the country’s leadership. It could even agree to reduce Russia’s support for separatists in eastern Ukraine in exchange for easing sanctions and de facto recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, a source said.
The West is unlikely to agree to give Putin room for maneuver in Russia’s own sphere of influence over the former Soviet republics, even if they gave him more room for maneuver when he expressed his desire to use force in Georgia during Russia’s short war. 2008.
Russia “will always overtake” the West in the event of an escalation in Ukraine, said Araud, a former French diplomat. “No German or American soldier would give his life for Kiev, but Russian soldiers would surrender.”
According to a British government official, the show of force against Ukraine has angered Western politicians, fueling real concerns about the Russian invasion.
“Their main objective is to intimidate,” said Philip Breddlove, a former NATO chief, during Russia’s intervention in Ukraine in 2014. “They are sending a clear message to Ukraine, Europe and America.”
Ukraine’s chances of attacking have always been slim, mainly due to the extreme consequences it would have, and “it is clear to Russia that it would go against their interests,” said Alexei Chesnakov, a former Kremlin official and Ukrainian policy adviser.
Putin has shown that he is not deterred by the threat of additional sanctions, Ph. Breedlove, currently an expert at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
“It just came to our attention then.” Everything we do is punishable by sanctions, “he said.
In his annual report, Putin insisted that “we really don’t want to burn bridges” with the West, adding that if anyone treats Russia’s intentions as a weakness, “they should know that Russia’s response will be asymmetric, swift and tough.”
The next day, the Russian leader officially attended a virtual climate summit hosted by Biden, took the time to address other world leaders, and then received praise from the president of the United States for his contribution.
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