Black clouds over Nord Stream 2: will the project fade or sink?

“To those who are in favor of closer ties with Russia, I say that the poisoning of Alexei Navaln with advanced chemicals is not the first time. We have already seen things like this in Georgia and Ukraine, Syria and Salisbury. As we have seen and he tries to interfere in elections around the world. The operation of Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission during her annual report last Wednesday (16 September), caused quite a stir in Brussels, as the operating model will neither change nor change .

Journalists have long hailed Commission spokespersons to explain what the allusion to the gas pipeline means and what the Commission plans to do. Von der Leyen himself later explained to journalists: “It has long been thought that this is a purely economic project, and I am deeply convinced that it is also a very political project, and that Russian behavior, examples of Russian behavior , has shown that nothing changes. for the better, but it’s getting worse with the installation of that pipe. “

That pipeline is Nord Stream 2, which will connect Russia with Germany through the Baltic Sea and bypass transit countries like Ukraine.

Two Lithuanian representatives did not support the resolution.

The day after the Commission President’s annual report, the European Parliament (EP) adopted a resolution on the poisoning of Alexei Navaln, stating that the European Parliament “reiterates its previous position that the Nord Stream 2 project should be suspended in light of the Navaln case “.

“Parliament reiterates its reiterated position. The EP has already said it three times (twice in 2018 and once in 2019) and it would be strange if the EP took a weaker position in the case of the Navaln poisoning. That was one of the arguments. The second argument is that the poisoning of A. Navaln is a systematic policy of the Russian government. The case of A. Navalnas must be seen from a more holistic point of view and, therefore, one of the important things written before the Nord Stream’s article is that the EU should review its policy with Russia.

The resolution was voted in favor of the resolution and separately for the inclusion of Nord Stream 2 by a large majority of MEPs (465 in favor of the NS2 amendment, 140 against and 78 abstentions; 532 against, 84 against and 72 abstentions). Of the Lithuanian MEPs, only Viktor Uspaskich abstained and Valdemar Tomaševskis did not participate in the vote on the resolution.

Everything in Merkel’s hands

However, Mr Kubilius acknowledges that, despite the EP resolution and the Commission President’s words, which were “elegant and strong”, the EU has limited powers over such projects.

“It just came to our attention then. What the EU could have done was the Gas Directive. As a result, a large part of the Nord Stream 2 bandwidth is no longer owned by Gazprom, the MEP said, adding that skeptics of NS2 were growing up in Germany itself.

In fact, after discovering that Navaln, the leader of the Russian opposition, had been poisoned by Novyčiok, German Chancellor Heiko Maas did not rule out sanctions against NS2: “I hope the Russians will not force us to change our position on Nord Stream. The cabinet German Chancellor Angela Merkel also said that the chancellor “did not rule out” that option.

“Merkel’s actions show that Vladimir Putin’s policies are turning into a very serious headache. I am not just talking about Mr Navalna. The EP has adopted a resolution on Belarus and it is clear that Putin is the only reason why that Alexander Lukashenko is in power. In addition, the ongoing war in Ukraine. Therefore, I think it is possible to expect that German policy towards the Putin regime will become stricter, “predicted A. Kubilius.

On the other hand, there is no shortage of information that Merkel is not going to stop NS2. Let’s say September 8. in a private meeting with German parliamentarians, she, together with the finance minister, allegedly rejected the imposition of sanctions on NS2. Last week, it also emerged that in August (before the Navaln poisoning) Germany had offered the billion dollars to build two liquefied gas terminals to receive American gas. In return, Washington is asked to lift sanctions against NS2.

A blow from which he has not yet recovered

The sanctions adopted by the United States in December last year against companies involved in the construction of NS2 were a severe blow to the heart of the project. For example, Swiss pipeline builder Allseas immediately withdrew from the project, although only 6 percent remained to be built. pipelines (2,300 km out of 2,460 km built) and NS2 is scheduled to go into operation early this year.

Now NS2 reps are avoiding naming the date the pipeline should be completed. Even more so when the United States threatens to tighten sanctions (for example, the NS2 construction base: the German city of Sassnitz has received a warning from the US senators that it will be “destroyed” economically).

“The project company is now forced to find new solutions to complete the construction of the remaining 6 percent. Romansas Baumanis, a senior advisor at Nord Stream 2 AG, said.

German for and against

Completing NS2, especially with so little left, is probably a matter of honor for German pedantry. Even more so because all the permits for which it has been so difficult to fight are obtained.

“I don’t see a legal way to end the NS2 project: it would not be possible to issue and revoke all permits now. Any attempt to terminate the project will result in a flood of lawsuits (…) and billions will have to be paid. Euros, – explained DELFI.lt energy expert, senior researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Dr. Katya Yafimava – The political consequences will also be serious, as Russia will see the postponement or termination of NS2 in response to the Navaln case as a loss of confidence, not only because there is no direct link between NS2 and the Navaln case, but also because Russia has already agreed to transit through Ukraine after the start of NS2. “

Suspending the project would also bring huge losses to the Western companies involved. 2015 In September, the Russian state monopoly Gazprom signed an agreement with five European companies (ENGIE SA, OMV AG, Royal Dutch Shell plc, Uniper SE and Wintershall Dea GmbH) to establish Nord Stream 2 AG and a pipeline. . Initially, 50 percent. the shares went to Gazprom, and 10 percent each. – for Europeans. Soon European companies withdrew from shareholders, but remained investors, hedging up to 50 percent. Project cost NS2. The total investment in NS2 and related infrastructure is 12 billion euros. euros.

“More than 120 companies from more than 12 European countries and thousands of their employees will be directly affected … Five Western investors, including two German companies, will lose almost € 1 billion each,” NS2 said. represented by R. Baumanis.

The main reason why Berlin is hesitant to stop NS2 is that German industry wants to ensure a stable supply (without transit countries) of cheap Russian gas. NS2 is expected to supply 55 billion. puppy. meters of natural gas per year. Recently, Germany is consuming between 85 and 90 billion. puppy. meters per year of gas. Demand for natural gas was expected to increase as Germany abandoned electricity generation from coal and nuclear power.

Furthermore, the plans of Norway and the Netherlands, of which Germany exports two-thirds of its gas, are questionable. Suppose the Netherlands by 2030. intends to abandon natural gas extraction for environmental reasons.

“NS2 plays an important role for Germany and for Europe as a whole, as gas demand in Europe is expected to remain at current levels and local production will drop dramatically, which means that dependence on imports will increase.” predicted energy expert Dr. K. Yafimava.

Critics reiterate that NS2 is only 5 percent. it will make gas cheaper for German consumers, and sitting “on the Kremlin gas needle” will not provide stability, as Russia has repeatedly shown that it can use energy at any time to achieve its geopolitical goals.

Furthermore, NS2 conflicts with the idea of ​​a “Green Course” promoted by the European Commission and supported by Germany itself, which aims the EU as a whole should become climate neutral. Politically, NS2 divides not only the EU but also transatlantic cooperation.