Atlantic Council: in 2021, the world will face ten threats

As the United States withdrew from the World Health Organization in the heat of the pandemic, the fragmentation of international institutions became more and more prevalent. The United States has also caused problems in other multilateral organizations.

However, according to the Atlantic Council, there have been glimmers of hope. Democracy prevailed in the US presidential elections. It is true that the country’s political system remains polarized and dysfunctional. Thanks to the heyday of special innovations supported by artificial intelligence and big data analytics, scientists have been able to develop a COVID-19 vaccine with surprising speed.

There are a number of temptations to claim that there will be nothing worse. So in 2021 it will only be possible to move forward. However, unexpected crashes will still not be avoided in the future and the risk will not decrease at all. The Atlantic Council has identified 10 key threats that will be faced in 2021.

The COVID-19 crisis will be aggravated by the slowness of vaccination

Coronavir will continue to be a problem for the United States, the European Union and Russia. The consequences of the spread of the virus, such as restrictions on travel or meetings with family and friends, and fatigue from the pandemic will not disappear in 2021. While they wait for the vaccine and believe that it will be vaccinated soon, many people can let go of the reins and watch with more indifference the prevention of infection. However, in the vaccine distribution process, there may be unexpected production and logistics problems that will delay the time when a sufficiently large part of the population is vaccinated.

Polls in the United States show that 42 percent. In general, Americans do not want to be vaccinated. This could drastically reduce the likelihood for the second 2021. sides to stop the spread of the virus. International travel restrictions will remain in effect most of the year. After all, the distribution of the vaccine around the world, and especially in developing countries, will not be easy. At that point, the virus will continue to spread and mutate, so the effectiveness of vaccines is likely to decrease.

The Atlantic Council considers that the probability of this happening is higher than average.

Joe Biden’s efforts as president will be thwarted

The efforts of the new president of the United States, Joe Biden, to govern the country will face challenges. In his final days as president, Donald Trump is doing everything he can to cause trouble for the heir.

United States Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has returned $ 455 billion from the coronavirus recovery fund to the government. Dollars. Trump threatened to sell more weapons to Taiwan, new sanctions on Iran, and the United States withdrew from the Open Skies Agreement to further undermine all gun control measures.

Polls show that about 70 percent. Republicans believe that Trump’s election victory was “stolen” and Biden’s presidency will be illegal. So Trump can be a real letter to Biden for the next four years, especially if he announces his intention to run again for president.

The probability of such a threat is high.

Debt will lead to another global financial crisis

The huge costs of the COVID-19 emergency are increasing global debt. This is especially true for developing countries. Global gross debt in 2020 increased by $ 15 trillion (about $ 12.2 trillion). At the end of the year, it reached 365 percent. World GDP. As a result of the pandemic, the International Monetary Fund has had to provide financial assistance to 81 countries around the world. Compared to 2019, capital inflows to low-income countries decreased by $ 700 billion (approximately € 569 billion). Emerging economies need seven trillion dollars (about 5.69 trillion euros) to pay off debts by the end of 2021. Zambia has become the sixth country to enter a stage of “default” (financial default) this year. Such financial difficulties could lead to a new global financial crisis.

The probability of a threat is medium.

Western economic recovery will become frustratingly slow

The International Monetary Fund and the International Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have recently lowered their previous estimates for 2020 and increased the level of economic damage from COVID-19 in the United States and other countries. Almost everyone will not even reach the level of GDP before the end of the pandemic by the end of 2021. Only one major economy, China, will show significant growth (almost 2%) in 2020. And by the end of the year, that number it could be as high as 10 percent.

The situation in the West could worsen if fiscal stimulus is insufficient. According to economists, this was the mistake of the United States and the European Union in recovering from the financial crisis of 2008. Once again, the difficult financial prospects for millions of people must not be forgotten. At a time when a pandemic has brought them down, you can’t put pressure on those people. Otherwise, it could have long-term political consequences.

The probability of this threat is high.

North Korea to sink into crisis

In trying to address the complex issue of North Korea’s nuclear program, President Biden will face diplomatic errors inherited from his four predecessors. Despite three meetings between Trump and Kim Jong Un, Pyongyang is now developing an even more powerful nuclear arsenal, comprising between 20 and 30 bombs and ICBMs that could reach the United States. North Korea has traditionally “welcomed” new US presidents with new nuclear or missile tests. Therefore, such an event should be expected in the first quarter of Biden’s presidency. For this reason, the American leader will come under pressure from the media and Congress. The president will have to react, which will cause an increase in tensions and the uncontrolled onset of a possible crisis.

The probability of such a risk is higher than average.

The confrontation between the United States and Iran will become more threatening

Suspicions of Israel’s role in the assassination of an Iranian nuclear physicist, coupled with Trump’s threats to fire his job on the grounds of imposing new sanctions on Iran, could bury Biden’s hopes of reviving a nuclear deal with Tehran. There is deep-seated anger in Iran toward the United States and Europe. In the run-up to the country’s elections in June, this anger is only growing.

If the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, before January 20. In response to all calls for retaliation against Israel, the United Arab Emirates, or the Saudi oil fields, the Trump administration could still respond. For example, bomb the Natanz nuclear complex. In that case, Biden will have to forget all his diplomatic hopes.

The probability of the threat is slightly above average.

The United States and China will fight for Taiwan

Taiwan could become the place where tensions over Sino-US relations will reach their peak. A negative trend has been observed in recent years. Whenever Washington demonstrated its support for Taipei through arms sales or diplomatic visits, Beijing increased the pressure on the island. If the confrontation between the United States and China escalates further, Xi Jinping may feel the need to regain control of his power in Taiwan. However, this may not end with military action. Beijing is likely to try to stifle the island’s economy. However, this will still make the United States respond. Any military confrontation could lead to a full-scale war between the great powers.

The probability of a threat is medium.

The world will be affected by the biggest food crisis in decades

The United Nations has warned that the world is on the brink of the most serious food crisis in at least 50 years. The pandemic has ripped through global food supply chains. More and more people are falling beyond the economic impact of COVID-19. Food prices are rising at a very bad time. The United Nations predicts that more people will die from malnutrition than from the coronavirus itself.

Malnutrition in children in general can have long-term health consequences. According to the World Food Program, Yemen, South Sudan, Nigeria and Burkina Faso are already starving. Even in developed countries, rising food prices during high unemployment are of great concern to the poor. In the United States, one in five families is no longer guaranteed food security.

It is no longer necessary to consider the probability of this threat, it has already started to become a reality.

Global growth of the middle class will end

Probably the world’s greatest achievement in the last three decades has been the rescue of millions of people from extreme poverty and the growth of the world’s middle class. This success could collapse if COVID-19 calms down in 2021 and we don’t have a strong economic recovery thereafter. According to experts, for the first time in half a century, the middle class began to weaken. In Latin America alone, there are 52 million fewer members of this class. Additionally, the World Bank predicts that by the end of 2021, another 150 million people will be living in poverty and living on less than two dollars a day.

This threat is very likely.

Turkey, with the ambitions of the new Ottoman Empire, will become increasingly aggressive

Turkey, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is becoming increasingly authoritarian, Islamist and expansionist. It has invaded or deployed forces in Somalia, Qatar, Libya, Syria, and the Balkans. Ankara rivals Russia in Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan, but at the same time it attacks the Kurdish allies of the United States in the fight against the Islamic State. Turkey is deploying Russian air defense systems on the S-400, threatening NATO and calling for US sanctions.

Ankara organized a provocative exercise in the eastern Mediterranean, violating the law of the sea and threatening Cyprus. Many Arab countries see Turkey as a threat. However, RT Erdogan got involved in the conflict with France over how he dealt with the recent terrorist attacks. Ankara’s multifaceted military force and aggression could lead to the outbreak of new conflicts. Although Turkey remains a member of NATO, the organization will have to respond.

The probability of a threat is high.